Posts in category Value Pickr
Edelweiss Financial Services (04-09-2022)
Thanks @Omkar11 for sharing your view. I think it is sad that you could not ask question in AGM. Based on what you described, it looks people were only praising them, which is not dissimlar to what happens to other AGM. I am not sure what someone should praise them. I doubt if any investor got any return if he has invested in the business for over a decade.
I think you should attend their con call (as you have very valid and pointed questions) for next quarters whenever it happens. There they would have to allow you to ask question. Ask due to what is happening with them, there is ample time to ask question as last 2 con calls finished within 45 min (they could go around 60 min if there are enough particiapant in the call).
Edelweiss Financial Services (04-09-2022)
Thanks @Omkar11 for sharing your view. I think it is sad that you could not ask question in AGM. Based on what you described, it looks people were only praising them, which is not dissimlar to what happens to other AGM. I am not sure what someone should praise them. I doubt if any investor got any return if he has invested in the business for over a decade.
I think you should attend their con call (as you have very valid and pointed questions) for next quarters whenever it happens. There they would have to allow you to ask question. Ask due to what is happening with them, there is ample time to ask question as last 2 con calls finished within 45 min (they could go around 60 min if there are enough particiapant in the call).
Puneeth’s Portfolio(Growing Alpha) (04-09-2022)
Good day everyone!
Today we will be going through a lot of things, where I made money this week and updates. Will do a comprehensive analysis of my mistakes and misses of the week, + Learnings from doing momentum and how I wll go forward.
Warning - this will be a chart heavy post. Also if you want a better understanding of what I’m doing please go through the thread, where I gave a concise explanation of what I’m doing(VCPs, BOs). Nothing is a reco, especially not from an amateur like me.
All suggestiong and critiques are very welcome!
Before we begin, pf performance from OCT 20th 2021 is as follows -
My PF | CNXSMCALLCAP | NIFTY50 |
---|---|---|
16.6% | -18.9% | -5.69% |
Pf alloc of today stands like so.
Companies | Weightage | Cost | Gain% |
---|---|---|---|
Krsnaa | 34% | 605.3 | -20% |
Cash | 17.2% | N/A | |
Sandhar | 4.2% | 232 | -3.4% |
Msumi | 10.5% | 80.9 | 1.04% |
SJS | 11.8% | 494 | 6% |
Panama | 15% | 322 | -0.6% |
Talbroseng | 9.6% | 589 | 0.7% |
Tatachem | 7% | 1143 | -1.69% |
Welcorp | 9% | 241.3 | 0.1% |
Numbers will add up to >100% as booked profits of the year is not considered as capital employed.
For those that havent seen my previous thread.(although I’d recommend checking them out)
What I look for -
- Uptrend.
- Volume(High on +ve and low on bases)
- Tightening(VCP)
- ? started looking for this week read on to find out.
Misses of the week(That I promise I won’t beat myself for )
-
FCL(miss of the year tbh)
Initially bought in at 160 average, and constituted 35% of PF. Sold at 213. There was a perfect re-entry opportunity at 160(came back to my original price), volumes on base were low, promoter bought some more, Ashish Kacholia sir bought more, their latest concall they upped the capex and capacities. A perfect storm of opportunity. Now it is a 2x. The profits missed out here would make the pf returns ~42% from the current 16.9%. Infuriating to say the least. Atleast I learnt I guess. -
Schaeffler
Schaeffler is part of the stocks that I was tracking, and continued to rise and rise forming constructive and resilient basess at every stopping point. While I don’t believe it would be prudent for me to enter, it is something to keep in mind regarding stocks that have gone up a lot. They keep doing so(if there are resilient bases). -
ElgiEquip
Similar episode. BO - Retest and continued strength(in what mind you was a not very supportive broad market) -
Ramratan Wires
High tight flag type stock. Missed a few of them like this. Once a major BO is achieved a constructive strong base is made where risk is minimal but upside is received quickly(Typically 2-3 days) -
Dlink India
Same story. It is one of my major enligtenments in this week is unfilled gaps and incredibly tight bases with theoretically <2% risk. Truly magnificient. This is comparable to my previous Eureka moment when I finally understood ROCE and its dupont properly. Feels magnificient. -
Rushil Decor
AGAIN the same thing. BO with unfilled gap. Tightens and moves on. I’m not done with the examples of the same. -
SBCL
I beat myself up the most for this one. A company with a wonderful thread on VP that I have been reading for a while. Thought the stock chart was perfect, never entered in the first base. After the unfilled gap, I price anchored myself. This will set the stage for my Tata chem trade where I will increase allocation(chart is at a similar setup, shown below) -
Ashok Leyland
Tight + mega cap. Lower risk in terms of beta, not very advantageous to me but nonetheless a clean setup. -
EIH
A big one, that I found after a move was made but eitherways same theory. -
Rohl
Notice the tight days the stock spent right before moving and crushing out supply.
Currently in PF + Hits of the week.
-
Affle
Avg buy price - 1170, Sold - 1297.
Clear tightening, clean BO on volumes. Staggered a 2nd purchase. Sold at resistance, will keep on WL for next leg up. -
Msumi
Avg Buy price - 80.9, still holding. Edged above resistance on Friday will good volumes. Lets see how it goes. -
SJS
Avg Buy - 494, still holding. Stock continued to edge up and I added on friday, might BO with high volumes. Lets see how it plays out. -
Panamapet
Avg buy - 321, still holding, business has clean volume profile and minimal selling. Yet to make a move lets see how it goes. -
Paradeep Phosphates
Avg buy - 54.8. Stock moved 10% in 1 day. Still holding, lets see how it plays out.(Low alloc) -
RIIL
Avg buy - 1090, Sold at - 1102. Trade went well initially(8% up in 1 day) but then moved SL to above cost and it got triggered, in watchlist. -
AGI
Avg buy - 319, Avg sold - 340. Made some 6-7% in 1 day sold into strength. -
Tata chem
Avg Buy - 1143, Still holding, will likely buy some more. Have given some context of tata chem chart in the mistakes and misses section. Same pattern, lets see how it pans out. -
Welcorp
Avg buy - 241. Still holding, BO. -
Talbros engineering.
Avg Buy - 589.9. Still holding, very neat chart. Clean upmove, consolidation on low volumes.
Hopefully, it was a productive and helpful read!
Happy day
HBL POWER SYSTEMS: Booting-up for the Race of the Century (04-09-2022)
Seems like there are two threads on HBL Power. Can the admins merge them or close one of it. Am I missing something?
Glenmark Life Sciences (04-09-2022)
Where do you see the timeline? Can you please post??
And personally speaking offloading 7% is not a big deal here… It’s a quality company with no limit to the potential.
Similar thing happened in Syngene and people sold it hearing some rumors of promoter going to sell, but nothing happened and it’s back to similar levels.
However i know regulatory requirements and so 75% has to be met in near future…but would be interesting to know the date i am supposing
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd (SBCL) (04-09-2022)
Some interesting takeaways from 2022 AR:
- "Keeping in view the contribution made by Mr. N.S. Ghumman (DIN: 00002052) for sustaining the growth of the business of the Company futuristically, with the recommendation of the nomination and remuneration committee, the Board of Directors in their meeting held on 29th August, 2022, decided to ratify the existing remuneration of Mr. N.S. Ghumman, Managing Director of the Company for a further period of three years w.e.f 01st January, 2022" My note: Looks like ghumman ji will be around for 3 years at least
2.RESOLVED FURTHER THAT the ratification of the existing remuneration (amount of Rs. 3.00 Crore, as already approved by the shareholders in its meeting held on 11th September, 2019) of Mr. S.S Sandhu (DIN: 00002312), as a Chairman and Whole time Director of the Company for further period of three years w.e.f 1st January, 2022. My Notes: Remuneration being fixed at existing remuneration for 3 years shows that promoter are not increasing their remuneration despite much larger capex coming on stream & much more profit growth. Promoter remuneration as % of profits should come down in next 3 years. - Mr. S.S. Sandhu enjoys good health and is actively associated in the development of the Company. The Board recommends the resolution to be passed as special resolution by the Shareholders as per the requirements Companies Act, 2013. My Notes: essentially co is asking shareholders to allow Mr Sandhu to hold on as chairman despite turning 70 years in 2024 as a special resolution (for 5 years since 2022). Music to ears of shareholders.
- Co is expanding related party transaction limit from 30 lakh to 4 cr for being able to pay Mr Kabir Ghumman. Mr. Kabir Ghumman is a qualified Engineer holding Bachelors-Mech. Engineering. He was made responsible for the supervision of all technical and process engineering aspects of the Company at the manufacturing unit. With his exposure and experience in the designing and optimisation of use of machinery has developed good understanding of manufacturing processing. His scope of work covers his full involvement in the mechanical engineering aspects of the Company at plant."
- Steps taken to improve profitability: " Focus on high quality performance delivery and good relationship with existing customers to generate rapid new order flows. Widening of customer base for growth of business both from private and public sector. Use of the Equipments of latest technology for enhancing quality and reducing time.
- Updates on Unit 1: Construction of the Building and equipment installation on the adjoining land has been completed and commercial production has commenced.
- Updates on Unit 4: Construction of the UNIT-IV Building is completed, and the Phase-wise equipment installation/commissioning process is expected to be fully operational by the end of September 2022.
-
there are some very good details on the capital goods that shivalik makes for inspection, improvement of the EBW process : “Further improvements made in custom-built machines for automatic inspection of components;
• Additional Automated systems for high-speed measurement and dimensional checks;
• In-house development and building of additional electron beam welding machines;
• High-Speed automatic packing machines for electronic parts – Further improvements made in production
throughput.
• Design and building of custom machines for measuring and calibrating shunt resistors.
• Improved heat treatment process to improve performance of resistors
• Installed Energy efficient Vacuum systems” - Global Smart meter opportunity: The global smart electric meter market size is projected to reach USD 36.00 billion by 2028, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.1% during the forecast period
- Indian smart meter opportunity: Smart Meter National Programme aims to replace 25 crore conventional meters with smart meters in India. Smart meters are connected through a web-based monitoring system which will help to reduce commercial losses of utilities, enhance. revenues and serve as an important tool in power sector reforms. According to the recent data released by the National Smart Grid Mission, Ministry of Power, 3.73 million smart meters have been installed across the country out of the total allocated quantity of 11.16 million smart meters as of January 2022
- EV Opportunity: The global electric vehicle market size is projected to grow from 4,093 thousand units in 2021 to 34,756 thousand units by 2030, at a CAGR of 26.8%. . A report by India Energy Storage Alliance estimated that the EV market in India is likely to increase at a CAGR of 36% until 2026
- Shunt Resistors comprised 51.94% of total revenues and grew by 69.73 % YoY. Thermostatic bimetal/trimetal strips comprised 46.24% of total revenues and grew by 48.64% YoY
- Expansion is on going to meet the demand that is emerging as the world moves rapidly into smart meters, EVs, EVs charging stations, intelligent battery systems, solar energy farms with battery storage and also demands from the 5G telecom networks.
Overall looks like co is gearing up to scale up shunts division even more. We should try to understand in AGM exactly how and to what extent Shunts can be used in new applications like “intelligent battery systems, solar energy farms, 5G telecom networks”.
one of most surprising new details for me is extent to which shivalik might be backward integrated into capital goods/machined used in the manufacturing process. Further providing a competitive advantage against lower value shunt makers. Investors must drive a fine balance between understanding this process/capital knowhow knowledge & allowing the co to maintain its competitive advantages by NOT divulging such details to anyone in public including investors.
disc: INvested, biased
Glenmark Life Sciences (04-09-2022)
One of the reason for not performing share wise is that promotor holds 82% and they have to compulsory bring down to 75 % and time line is nearby .they must offload 7 % in market or by placement
Glenmark Life Sciences (04-09-2022)
One of the reason for not performing share wise is that promotor holds 82% and they have to compulsory bring down to 75 % and time line is nearby .they must offload 7 % in market or by placement