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Posts in category Value Pickr
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (20-11-2015)
According to Assocham study sugar prices in india is likely to firm up from summer of 2016.
Assocham press release about sugar study. Also as per recent concall of EID Parry, bounce in sugar prices from recent low of around 11 cent / lb to 15 cent / lb is technical in nature as most global projections estimates deficit of around 2-3 million tonne for consumption of around 182 million tonne for year 2016. However projection for 2017 is more supportive of global sugar prices. Also US FAO project that sugar prices can touch 18-19 cent / lb based on fundamental factor by 2017 which can be fair value of sugar considering expected demand supply scenarios. However from 2018 again some surplus is possible. All bounce back in commodity prices start with bit skepticism but gain ground based on future events playing out. However with severe deficit of monsoon in 2015 usually shock in sugar cane supply mostly surprises in downside and expectation of sugar prices touching 40-45 range sometimes in next 2 years in indian market cannot be rules out as agricultural product prices in india moves up very sharply in short duration. Also logically it does not make sense that in a country where hardly any vegetables or food staples available below Rs 40 only sugar is available below Rs 30 which is more difficult to produce and consumes more time , money and efforts in producing 1 kg of sugar than any other crop based food items.
Forensics and the art of triangulation (20-11-2015)
Have been on and off on value pickr. Find attached a report by ambit - which I think is quite good on forensic accounting.
I will also share a report by ACFE in the next post as the file size is too big to be posted in one post.
Avanti Feeds (20-11-2015)
Will these series of cyclones on the east coast impact production ? @hitesh2710 - if you could ask your contact on it pls and about general trends in shrimp pricing and volumes.
Thomas Cook India-Will it move like Warren Buffet Stock (20-11-2015)
Dont agree - things are always fluid - I am sure things that were thought of when the deal between TC and quess was signed have changed now. The issue is not changing terms but if they can they are favourable to minority shareholders. Remember that's its the species that adapts itself to circumstances that survives in the long run.
At this point of time, given prem watsa's record and ajit isaac's record, I am willing to give tthem the benefit of doubt
MPS Ltd (20-11-2015)
thanks @Donald - will share my notes. I have spoken to a few guys in the industry and the gist of it was
a. mps mgmt is very good and they know what they are doing
b. they are focussed on margins and would never sacrifice it for growth
c.their sales team doees not have as much mojo as others - partly because they were never used to selling as a macmillan subsidiary - they were a cost centre and had captive business
d. SPI global and Newgen are ahead in terms of growth and profitability. Spi has scale while newgen has a lot of niche IP
I do not know SPS and TNQ. will share financials of newgen and others by this weekend. Also, will check if any of my contacts is willing to talk specifics on these.
Thanks
Gulshan Polyols(GPL) – Business by FMCG and Valuation by Commodity (20-11-2015)
CK Jain latest interview in CNBC
Key Points:
- Key projects (grain processing, desi liquor )completion by Q1 2016. Starch processing, Sorbitol capacity expansion to completed by 2017 March and company plans to deploy 150 crore for the same.
- Grain processing plant in UP started contribution to sales from Q2.
- Ability to pass on raw material price hike to customers in next quarter (HUL,Dabur,Coalgate etc.)
- Sorbitol domestic consumption estimated growth is 10% where as less margins for exports.
plans to increase the sorbitol capacity expansion 20% by 2017. - Paper plants has to adopt onsite ppc plant for reducing the cost and ease of maintenance, either today or 2 years down in the line. GPL is the only company to do so in India.
- Aim to reach 800+ crore sales by 2018 March, considering immense market potential in PCC, Sorbitol, Liquor and other business.
Jenburkt Pharma – Analysis Report (20-11-2015)
Have taken this out manually from here http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/Sharehold_Search.aspx?code=524731
Kitex Garments Limited (20-11-2015)
US opposes India's latest round of incentives to boost textile exports
By ET Bureau | 20 Nov, 2015, 04.00AM ISTPost a Comment
NEW DELHI: The United States has opposed India's latest round of incentives to provide a fillip to exports, alleging violation of a global trade rule for export competitiveness in textiles.
Commerce department officials said the US raised this issue more than a week ago, after India increased support for exports of several products including textiles while expanding the scope of the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) on October 30.
The government included exports of cotton fabrics, both woven and knitted, and made-ups to leading markets including African countries under the MEIS. Under the World Trade Organisation's agreement on subsidies and countervailing measures, when the export share of a developing country with per capita income below $1,000 a year touches 3.25% in any product category for two consecutive calendar years it is deemed to have gained "export competitiveness".
US opposes India's latest round of incentives to boost textile exports
Such a country is then required to phase out export subsidies for the items for eight years from the second year of breach. The WTO mandates developing countries to phase out the export subsidies within the eight-year period, preferably in a progressive manner. The WTO had in 2010 asked India to consider phasing out the subsidies for textiles and clothing.
"However, a developing country member shall not increase the level of its export subsidies, and shall eliminate them within a period shorter...when the use of such export subsidies is inconsistent with its development needs," the agreement says.
The US has flagged the issue of export competitiveness in textiles and said that India cannot give additional subsidy during the phase-out period, said an official, requesting not to be identified. Another official, in the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council, said India has crossed the export limit and the government is aware of this but the market is moving slow.
"As for the removal of subsidies, we can either gradually phase them out or immediately stop them in 2018 on a pre-decided date," he said.
he government included exports of cotton fabrics, both woven and knitted, and made-ups to leading markets including African countries under the MEIS.
Read more at:
Torrent Pharma Ltd (20-11-2015)
Nexium row between Dr Reddy's and Astra Zeneca hotting up
Dr Reddy’s sues AstraZeneca over purple colour of Nexium generic
By Vikas Dandekar, ET Bureau | 20 Nov, 2015, 04.00AM ISTPost a Comment
MUMBAI: Hyderabad-based drug maker Dr Reddy's has filed a lawsuit in a US court against Anglo-Swedish drug giant AstraZenecaBSE 1.68 % alleging material breach of a settlement agreement that had released the company from any liability in connection with generic versions of Nexium, the blockbuster drug used to treat heartburns and gastric ulcers.
Last week, AstraZeneca as part of a lawsuit against Dr Reddy's moved in a Delaware Court obtained a temporary restraining order preventing the Indian firm from selling copies of Nexium on grounds of trademark infringement for using the colour purple, which was similar to the original brand.
AZ had asserted to the court that its purple coloured pill is protected by three federal trademarks and the generic drug launched by Dr Reddy's in September could be confusing to users. In addition to Dr Reddy's, generic versions of Nexium is sold by companies such as Mylan and Teva in colours like blue and white.
Countering that move, in its November 17 filings in the New Jersey Court, Dr Reddy's has said that as part of an earlier settlement in 2011, AstraZeneca was made aware and had full knowledge that DRL intended to utilise the colour purple for its capsule.
Dr Reddy’s sues AstraZeneca over purple colour of Nexium genericThe Indian drug maker noted, AZ's move to sue Dr Reddy's were committed wilfully, knowingly, maliciously and in conscious disregard of AZ's legal obligations to DRL and caused immediate, great, irreparable harm to DRL's property and business. The company has claimed for damages.
Subsequent to the ANDA filings for Nexium generic by Dr Reddy's a few years ago, the Dr Reddy's petition said AZ had sued Dr Reddy's for patent infringement and during that suit, DRL produced portions of its ANDA and physical samples, which disclosed the ingredients, form, packaging and look of its proposed generic product, including that its proposed capsule was purple.
A report from HSBC analyst Girish Bakhru estimated sales forecast of $55 million for Dr Reddy's during the year, but added that figure is predicated on the product getting back into the market within a stipulated timeframe. In a separate development, Lundin Law, a Los Angeles-based law firm specialising in securities litigations said it is investigating claims against Indian drug firm Dr Reddy's concerning possible violations of federal securities laws.
The investigation, the law firm in a November 18 release said is related to allegations that certain statements issued by Dr Reddy's were false and misleading concerning the company's financial performance. The law firm made a general appeal to join a class action suit noting that "no class has been certified in its action. Until a class is certified, you are not considered represented by an attorney. You may also choose to do nothing and be an absent class member".
Dr Reddy's refuted claims made by the law firm. In a statement, it said, "Dr Reddy's has always adhered to all disclosure requirements both of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SECs) and Indian stock exchanges; including accounting practices as per the International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS) and the Indian Accounting Standards. The Company has no further comment on what might be advertorial Press releases by law firms and refutes all allegations."