Anyone with technical analysis on Aurobindo please! What the charts say? Lupin showed resistance near 2100 3 times this year and we see bad Q2 results! How is Aurobindo looking on charts?
Posts in category Value Pickr
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (27-10-2015)
alembic q2 fy 16 results seem to be better than expected.
What is more encouraging is the amount of R&d spend.
Some good things coming out of results are:
Launch of own front end marketing in the US market
21% growth of speciality segment in the domestic markets. (this is considered as the big growth driver in domestic markets)
Market reactions can be well wide of our expectations in the short term. e.g One can see the torrent stock price after stupendous q1 fy 16 results. and after a few trading sessions it was business as usual.
With some guys I talked to after results, the big question is what would be normalised earnings in absence of abilify kind of revenues in fy 17. My take is that one can start off by calculating a calibrated growth from eps figures of 15 in fy 15 and put in a 25-35% growth depending upon one's bullishness.
And with the kind of pipeline alembic has there can be a few other blockbuster opportuniites. And going ahead with its own marketing network, it can milk the opportunity if and when it comes fully.
Another thing they could do would be to sell some existing molecules thru its own marketing network and thus improve margins further.
disc: invested
Vinati Organics (27-10-2015)
Yes, Vinati Saraf is daughter of Vinod Saraf (CEO); She is married to Mohit Mutreja sometime back.
Vinati Organics (27-10-2015)
Is Vinati Saraf Mutreja wife of Mohit Mutreja?
The both are board of directors. Mohit is founder and MD of another company Alphagrep securities (trading).
P. I. Industries Ltd. – A Unique Business Model can make it a Great Play on Agri & CSM Space (27-10-2015)
Announces Q2 results:
The Company has posted a net profit of Rs. 582.20 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 as compared to Rs. 489.70 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2014. Total Income has increased from Rs. 4320.80 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2014 to Rs. 4505.50 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2015.
Top line Growth: 4%
Bottom line Growth: 19%
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (27-10-2015)
Couldn't understand the price movement, post the result. I was hoping for an upper circuit kind of move, with these results but Mr.market gave Alembic a sulk. Can anyone weigh in here ? Is this considered a flash in the pan result ? After all, this isn't like your Lupin result ( annus horribilis) announced today. Hoping for some insights
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (27-10-2015)
I dialled in second half of the call, missed the inital 20-25 mins of the call. here are few points which I noted:
the management didnt disclose the contribution of Abilify in Q2. They have lost market share in Abilify in last 2-3 months. They reached 10% market share but now its down to 6%. The management said there has been drop in prices of Abilify after the entry of Apcotex and recently after the entry of Aurobindo.
R&D expense in H1 FY16 is around 158cr (disclosed in the investor presentation). The management is guiding for R&D expense of 250 cr in FY16.
The company plans to launch 6-8 products every year for next 2-3 years in US.
Q2 FY 16 doesnt include any contribution from gCelebrex. It is launched through partner in US and its contribution will be reflected in Q3 FY16.
-Alembic has now its own front end team in US. They are selling gZomig through there own front end team (not sure about this drug name, plz check)
-There were some one -off expenses in 'other expenses" (like litigation costs) in Q2 but management didnt quantify the one off exp.
Kitex Garments Limited (27-10-2015)
I'm really surprised at the amount of brickbats this company gets and has been receiving since Q2 results.
I've done a quick 5 minute comparison analysis for the last 4 years for Page and Kitex (similar businesses according to me apart from balance sheet/m.cap size which is reflected in their P/E I believe) to try and understand if the criticism for Kitex is fair by any means:-
Page (2011-2015)
Revenue Growth - 3x
Profit Growth - 3.2x
Debt to Equity - Down from .85 to .35
RoE - 50-55% consistently
NPM - 12-14% stable
Current P/E - 78
Kitex (2011-15)
Revenue Growth - 2x
Profit Growth - 4.7x
Debt to Equity - Down from 1.25 to .6
RoE - Increased from 25-27% to 32-34%
NPM - Massive jump from 8% to 20%
Current P/E - 32
Based on the above numbers, IMHO Kitex is absolutely fairly valued (give or take 10-15%). As long as their is earnings growth, the valuations should remain stable unless they can no longer increase margins because of low revenue growth.
But with 20-30% PAT growth numbers, I'm not sure what else people are expecting? I'd take 20-30% earnings growth any day even if revenue is muted if I've invested with any degree of MoS.
I agree with the fact that there is little MoS at current valuations and it may require a leap of faith to bet big currently. But I certainly don't see much reason to start predicting doomsday scenarios. Infact, for all those eager to exit any major positions, I'd be very happy to take some big bites at 600-650
Discl - Invested
PS:
1)For the calculations, please allow for 5-10% error as I have calculated some of it mentally
2) I don't have much knowledge on accounting, so if you're one of those who believe it's books are cooked - most happy to listen to that argument with evidence
Indocount notes from AR (27-10-2015)
Hello friends,
Indocount has reported a stellar set of numbers.
Revenues up 21% YoY
Ebitda & EPS up 55% YoY.
Debt down to 217cr from 267cr YoY.
Company is migrating to higher value added products like Bed linens.
Company is focusing on increasing client base.
Global home textiles market is expected to grow 15% over next 2-3 years.
Mission of the company is to become Debt free.
No shares are pledged now.
475cr expansion over 2 phases.
*Phase 1 expansion is 175crs which will be completed by December 2016.
*Phase 2 expansion is approx 300crs which will be completed over 3 years (very nice to know).
Plans to enter domestic industry too.
Conclusion - Very measured approach. Co is in a sweet spot at the moment, lets hold it.
Neil
Dynemic Products (27-10-2015)
I agree @jitenp. And thats exactly my point. Your price point was great, congrats for that but current price point to invest, in my view its quite high given the reasoning in my previous post.