@pranavpallod12, as per my analysis they are investing.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Everest Organics: High growth Micro cap stock from API space (20-09-2022)
Hello all. Does anyone have any idea about where this company is headed? After the sudden demise of the founder, there is no clarity on the strategic direction. The stock is down 50% from its highs. While a microcap with low liquidity can move up on one small good news, the reverse is also true. Any inputs will be helpful.
Disclosure: Invested.
Dynacons Systems & Solutions Ltd – A growing IT company (20-09-2022)
a very quick screener data check- why the co has high interest payout of 10 crore in last 12 months?being an it company with high interest burden ( 30% of operating profit ) and thin margin , i would keep it under observation.
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (20-09-2022)
Inspite of some of the positive developments I don’t the stock price moving up. Is it because the power demand has dropped from the peak that was seen during summer? All the hype surrounding IEX like neighbouring countries participating in it, IEX having 95% mk share and proposed reform to electricity distribution, IGX…stock price is falling. Any insights ??
Disc: Invested
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd (SBCL) (20-09-2022)
The annual report:
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd (SBCL) (20-09-2022)
The annual report:
Saregama India Ltd: India’s premier music publishing label (19-09-2022)
Thank you both for your analysis and sharing your viewpoint. The points you have raised are correct but it looks like the picture you have shared is not complete.
-
Inflation in Europe- Europe has a Per capita income of 3000-5000 euros per month, its more than what we make in India per year. So cost of spotify may be 10 times more in Europe but it is less than India as a % of monthly income.
And while it is true that Energy bill has increased (I am paying these higher bills personally), but the increase in Energy bill is in hundreds of Euros per month. 7-10 Euros per month for a music service is not first thing that comes in mind to save money. -
Carvaan phone is definitely a misallocation, but so is Carvaan in its current radio avtaar. So nothing new unless management starts spending a lot of money & time on it. Going by Vikram’s earlier statements, I suspect mgmt will spend too much bandwidth on it. But yes, need to wait on this one for more clarity.
-
Gaana going off of free- We are talking about one player in the whole industry, it is too early to call it buyer side consolidation.
-
Views on channels- While the views have reduced on some channels, several other channels are showing very good increase as well.
At the end of it, I see that sector may go through a patch of consolidation, but I won’t call them headwinds. We may have to decide that whether we want to wait out the consolidation phase or get out now and come in later when the tailwinds come back. For some savvy investors like @sahil_vi I believe the opportunity costs are too high to wait it out 
Saregama India Ltd: India’s premier music publishing label (19-09-2022)
Agree with narratives that there might be a slowdown, but it isn’t yet showing up in data. Q1 has always been soft. Yet from Q4 (Q3&Q4 seasonally the best Q’s). The company has still grown revenues QoQ in licensing division:-
Secondly, the pre-ceding Quarter and the current Quarter has been weak in terms of launches. This becomes clearer from the fact that majority of the content that was acquired last year will get launched in H2 this year or by Q1 next FY. Here:-
Thirdly, Capital allocation. Ideally, no one likes the Carvan division, but if the product is contract manufactured and little capital is deployed. How does it matter? Wasn’t decision to Demerge the magazine biz a bigger positive here?
A Quarter or two of softness or even some consolidation in the stock is good after a huge run up we saw. Helps to build more clarity for people already holding the business.
Multiple approaches one can take here:-
-
One can act like a positional trader/investor, and re-enter when the growth journey resumes.
-
One can just sit tight, and accept such bumps of quarterly variations as a part of the journey. In India, Paid subscriptions haven’t even taken off. Find it hard to digest how a recession directly impacts. Indirectly yes, unviable businesses like Gaana might suffer. In USA, last I checked market is pretty consolidated:-
Yet, the Labels make the money and control nearly 60% of the profit pools of the industry.
Last I checked, this Q Spotify’s revenue also grew at a very healthy clip and they ended up beating all the estimates. Here:-
What can the long term picture be here like and a counter view point to consolidation?
Disc: invested. Willing to take Quarterly bumps and not trade around too much in personal pf.