Thank you for your valuable suggestion.
Posts in category Value Pickr
CDSL – Stock for our children (17-09-2022)
Please check the demat charge structure of any broker that uses CDSL. You will get the details. Hint: Zerodha is one of them.
Also, check the breakup of revenue for CDSL in their annual report/presentations. That will give you an idea of how much percentage revenue flows from transactions and what are other sources of revenue for CDSL.
Hope these pointers will help you in becoming a better investor!
The Anup Engineering Ltd – Can it scale up? (17-09-2022)
Hello, what is the mode of fund for kheda capex. 30.cr last year spent was from internal accruals. What about the rest money? will it be through internal accruals or debt or equity dilution?
Fundamental Analysis of Listed Indian Companies (17-09-2022)
I don’t get the point, the whole Valuepickr Forum is fundamental analysis of listed Indian companies. Request you to open a separate thread for individual company (if not existing already) with a proper introduction (which you can get from DRHP / Annual Report / Investor Presentations etc.) so that others can build on it and it becomes useful.
IDFC First Bank Limited (17-09-2022)
IDFC First Bank received ‘Best Savings Account Product’ 2019-2020 Award
Sahil’s Portfolio (17-09-2022)
(post deleted by author)
Fundamental Analysis of Listed Indian Companies (17-09-2022)
Credit rating of Reliance Power is also not good.
Omkar’s Portfolio Analysis and Discussion (17-09-2022)
About Abbott India…
I was also scared about competition from generics and also from National List…And also it was corrected more than 30%. I thought i have made a mistake. Also in Abbott thread of Valuepickr, reading all those posts shook my confidence. But fortunately i didnot jump to conclusion
But then i read the annual report, and saw that they are doing quite good inspite of all these problems. If a brand value is good and management is also at par, they manage to sail through these problems. I stayed invested. And stock price also bounced back.
My learning - we should not overkill with studies. And should trust management and also economy. Things dont go from good to bad in india so fast. If we do all this microscopic worries then, i dont think there is a single company that we can buy and hold. All have problem. Be it Asian paints, be it HDFC bank, be it Pidilite, be it TCS, Be it Infosys…All have some or the other issues to handle. Nothing is pristine. We just need to put them on autopilot and just sit back and relax. Let them do the things…Otherwise whats the point of investing…Its better to start a business and manage it.
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (17-09-2022)
Currently nothing much info available in public domain. Yes the past annual reports are all copy paste, only the numbers got changed. But something has really changed since last few quaters that is why company start generating above avg ROE. Might be some ban on raw materials of refractory to reduce dependence on china. Still trying to find the information.
Investment process (17-09-2022)
Investment Framework
Industry Study
• Is this a good business?
• What are the key success factors to superior performance in this industry? (VAR)
• Define the market opportunity. How do competitive products address this opportunity?
• What are the barriers to entry (“moats”)? (VAR)
• What is the relative power of: (VAR)
◦ Customers
◦ Suppliers
◦ Competitors
◦ Regulators
• Who controls industry pricing? Does the company/sector have any pricing power?
• How (and how much) can a good company differentiate itself from a bad one in this industry?
• Do you understand this business? Test yourself and describe it to a 10-year-old.
Business Model (VAR)
• What is the selling model: Razor/blades? Services? One-off contracts?
• What are the economics of the base business unit? How does it stack up against competitors?
• Why is the company good (or bad) at what it does? Can the company sustain it?
• Is this company growing by acquisition? How sustainable is that?
• Be able to easily describe the entire sales process – from order to fulfillment.
Management (VAR)
• What is the executives’ background, and what do their former colleagues, investors, and classmates say about them? Have they been successful in the past? (Very important)
• How is management compensated? Are its interests aligned with shareholders?
• Has management been good at allocating capital?
• Are management members buying or selling stock? How much as a percentage of their holdings, and why?
Company/Cultural Issues (VAR)
• Is this a great company? Is it built to last? What could change this assessment?
• Can you imagine holding stock in this company for 20 years?
• If you had access to unlimited capital, how would you feel about your chances of successfully competing against this company?
• Compare to a weak competitor in the same industry. What is the difference and why?
Financial Measures First Step: Check against all the accounting shenanigans in Howard Schilit’s book Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks and Fraud in Financial Reports (Amazon.com).
• What is the company’s capital structure, and how does it compare to its peers?
• What are the trends in inventory turns, days payable/receivable, and working capital?
• What are the company’s coverage ratios on interest payments?
Cash Flow
• What are the company’s capital requirements and cash flow characteristics?
• How is the company choosing to invest its capital? Capital expenditures? Buybacks? Acquisitions?
• Does the company need to access the capital markets? How soon/often?
Earnings/Profitability
• Regarding the company’s sales model, how visible are earnings quarter to quarter, and year to year?
• Is this a fixed or variable cost business? How much cost leverage?
• Do earnings grow as a function of unit sales growth, price increases, or margin improvement? How sustainable is this growth?
Valuation
• Looking forward, what is the company’s valuation in terms of:
◦ Market value/earnings
◦ Enterprise value (“EV”)/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”)
◦ Free cash flow (“FCF”) yield (after-tax FCF/market value)
◦ Market value/sales
• What are the company’s growth rates in terms of earnings, EBITDA, and FCF?
• What are consensus earnings estimates versus your own expectations?
• What are the key leverage points in our own and the Street’s earnings models?
• What has to go right, and where is the most chance for surprise?
• Are the company’s accounting policies conservative and in line with its peers?
Risks
• What are the big unknowns? How much can the company control/influence these risks?
• What could cause this investment to be a total disaster? How bad could it be?
Other (Timeline/Timing Issues)
• What are the catalysts (triggers) for the company’s proper valuation to be realized?
• What good news and what bad news will affect the company in the coming year?
• Who owns the stock? Momentum funds? Big mutual funds? Hedge funds?
• How difficult is it to build a significant position (float, volume)?
• Draw a timeline of expected events and dates. What might go wrong and when?