Jubilant plans to raise capital for about INR 1300 Crore.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Gulf oil corporation – the safest way to play coal cycle (forget about coal cycle) (30-10-2015)
That means approx. 32 lakhs per guntha (1089 sq fts). That is really too much sir. And that too gov. paying so much money when they pay gov. rates only.
Thanks
Amol
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (30-10-2015)
Chintan, you are right being a cyclical industry usually once uptrends start it continue till march of next year then because of weather related uncertainties correction happens between march and july and depending upon monsoon conditions it moves up and down. However during poor monsoon years (like 2015) usually uptrends continue for 2 years because major effect of poor monsoon is felt in next year crop and cause larger sugar deficit. Poor monsoon has three prolonged effect reduction in acrage, reduced production of sugarcane and lower recovery which magnify its effect. Because sugarcane takes between 10 to 15 months for full development there is no much scope for supply improvements in between times. Same stories was repeated during previous monsoon drought of 2002 and 2008. Also usually south based sugar companies are better managed like EID Parry, Parry Sugar, Bannari Aman etc and they tend to outperform in latter part of cycle from UP based companies.
Consolidated Vs Standalone Finanacial statements (30-10-2015)
Look at both. But look more at consolidated numbers. Most websites calcukate EPS and ratios on standalone nos. This is usually misleading.
P. I. Industries Ltd. – A Unique Business Model can make it a Great Play on Agri & CSM Space (30-10-2015)
Some notes I prepared while listening to call
agri inputs:
* indian farmers likes brand because of they give predictable yields
* kefun, oshean brands have done really well
* selective launching 1-2 every year
* challenges in monsoon, muted growth possible in second half
* biovita relaunched
* in-licensed products have gone to 70% - I think this is giving much better margins
CSM
* CSM growth flat in q2, customers take the deliveries in 2H
* plant 2 at Jambusar started in sept, plant 3 by end of year q3 in dec
* order book of 610m
* A molecule takes around 2 years to ramp up from early stage to commercial production
* PI does not have much impact of crash in global agri prices due to it is mainly into molecules in early stage of the cycle, only matured products will see impact
* infact they are getting more and more enquiries from global companies for out sourcing - in 1H they saw 20% more enquiries in CSM
* the impact of global agri commodity crash is that farmers will look to shift crops which have better prics and try to reduce costs which will impact mature agri input products. PI is in early stage products will not be impacted much.
* started working on pharma and speciality chemicals - this is pilot stage - target 10-15% sales from these segments in next 3-5 years
- Strength of the company includes handling complex process chemisty/reactions and r&d and moving products from early lab synthesis to commercial production and key tie ups/trust with global agri MNCs that they will respect their IPs
FY16 outlook
- blended growth (agri input + CSM) will be 15% growth with 100-150 point improvement in margins
- 300-350cr from two newly commissioned plants in jambusar in H2
- fy16-17 slight tapering of tax rates due to jambusar being in SEZ ( My take is this will be offset will be higher depreciation of two new plants )
What am I missing in Insecticides India? (30-10-2015)
There was already thread for Insecticide,why create new?
What am I missing in Insecticides India? (30-10-2015)
There was already thread for Insecticide,why create new?
Century Ply – Khusiyon ka rangmanch (30-10-2015)
Greenply is the pioneer of MDF in India. Century is just starting off. The product is a commodity so both will do well. And I think both these companies will follow the ceramics industry model of partnering / buying out smaller players once GST rolls out and they (the smaller players) become nonviable.
POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities ) (30-10-2015)
Results are little bit disappointing but not bad. Their overall EBITDA is about 33% this quarter in spite of Rs 3.2 crores loss from Apparel business. Yes Granite degrew, I have a feeling, going forward, their Granite segment will not grow much or will grow slower(I mean exports, but domestic granite business could still grow). Good thing Quartz grew, its their rising star, but I expected it to hit Rs 60 crores revenue this quarter considering their claim of Quartz plant running at 80%., either I overestimated, or they misrepresented the capacity utilization, will have to find out. I think Quartz EBITDA for this quarter are about 40%. Which is very impressive. Its encouraging to see how their Quartz segment margins are expanding. Compare the margins for last few quarters of quartz, you will notice. There is 2 months data on stoneupdate.com for this quarter, for July and August it shows 490k (july 175K and August 315K) square footage of quartz imports from India, for now , lets assume September did another 350k square feet (giving some monthly increment ) that makes it 840K square feet for the quarter from India. Give it a realization of $10 per square feet and and Rs60/USD exchange, that makes it little over Rs 50 crores in Rupee terms. That brings us to believe Pokarna is the only exporter of Quartz from India...would like to know if I am getting it wrong.
But most disappointing thing is their apparel business, Rs 1.5 cr revenue and Rs 3.2 crore loss?? Really??
I haven't had a chance to look at the other Balance sheet details yet. Will spend some time over the weekend.
Any PSU bank worth investment? (30-10-2015)
In my opinion the larger PSU banks, the likes of SBI, BoB, PNB, Union Bank may be good options to keep a watch on. The smaller ones will have a tough time both from a financial capitalization and competitive landscape perspective with more private banks, NBFCs and payment banks.