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Posts in category Value Pickr
Newgen Software (19-11-2024)
There was consistent growth in top line on yoy basis. The PAT decline which you mentioned was mainly due to re -starting marketing expense globally which was stoped earlier during COVID and till travelling was opened properly. Being product company, they have to do marketing and sales job. So PAT before that was elevated due to zero expense in travelling and other related promotion of products (Souce: concall of Newgen around those quarters).
GUJARAT GAS Improving outlook on volumes (19-11-2024)
This was in formulation for longtime from PNGRB side . If a new operator comes on-board in a certain GA and plan to sell gas using pipeline of the incumbent one. Existing operator will charge fees for network usage. Also similar arrangement is in place in Morbi. Industrial customer switch between industrial propene and pipes gas whichever is cheaper for them.Also bulk LNG anyone can buy anywhere there is no exclusivity in that sales.But need to view it’s long-term impact.we need to see anyone interested to sell in Morbi region other than Gujarat Gas.
Newgen Software (19-11-2024)
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Newgen Software (19-11-2024)
I am also invested in Newgen and I was merely responding to the comment that company did well in 2022 unlike other IT companies which is not correct.
June 2022, Sep 2022 and Dec 2022 company reported PAT decline year on year and results started improving from 2023 in line with the other IT companies.
Ugro Capital – Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value (19-11-2024)
Charging 20% interest rate per se is not bad. If you know, how buy now and pay later schemes and buy on EMI works, you will understand that the companies charge 15-18% interest rates. Here, I am talking about consumer segment. So, the actually problem is over leveraging the consumer, means giving multiple loans with this interest rates to a single person and kind of throwing him in a debt trap. This is exactly what happening in MFI segment.
On the other hand, Ugro not giving any loan to a individual consumer, rather to a enterprise with credit history and GST number. Loan is only given after triangulating several data sources to ensure that the enterprise is not over leveraged, and has the capacity and intention to pay. On the top unlike the consumer loan where the money is used to buy TV and Fridge the credit given to a enterprise is used for generating revenue and using it for productive use.
Ugro being Five-star, I am not buying this idea. Ugro has far healthy and scalable business model.
Disc. Invested
Sky Gold ltd. – Will it reach the sky? (19-11-2024)
Q2 FY25 concall
- Q3 guidance at 1000cr (750 cr from parent company, 150 cr from subsidiaries), for Full FY25 guidance stand at 3300 cr ( 2700 cr from parent and 600 cr from subsidiaries), Guidance for FY27 stand at 6300 cr (5000 cr from parent company, 1300 cr from subsidiaries)
- export at 9% of total sales(around 63.9 cr), while targeting 15% -20% in the near future focusing on markets in Malaysia, Singapore, and the Middle East.
- Other income was due to the sale of HDFC and TCS shares. Next quarter will also have some as the company will sell its SBI shares ( then the company will have no shares left in the balance sheet).
- gold metal loans were at 10% in Q1, now at 25% in Q2, and in Q3 target at 50-60% and in the future target at 80% which is the peak that is allowed, this will take pat margin from 3 to 3.5% in future( by reduce in interest cost due utilization of gold metal loans)
- currently running at 46% capacity utilization(standalone) , 30-33% in subsidiaries(which will ramp In upcoming quarter)
- Focus remains on B2B, not have plans to open retail shops
- subsidiaries EBITDA margin at 4%, Q3 will have 5 – 5.5%, as some QIP fund is allocated in subsidiaries
- Inventory is totally hedged on MCX, we don’t gain when gold prices go up but we don’t lose if goal prices go down
- In the March quarter, planning to launch lab-grown diamond products.
- Seen clients were order on a day-to-day basis, So In the December quarter, an app will go live for clients where they can see products and order on a day-to-day basis
Trent — A value unlocking story from the house of TATA (19-11-2024)
Dear Investor no 1,Thanks for your comment. yes H & M and Trent are different , but you can compare some metrics. Valuation often involves some degree of subjective assessment, especially regarding future prospects. Every investing choice (like most other choices in life) is a leap of faith. We choose something based on present evidence. We review periodically and change if things don’t work out – no harm, no foul. As with life, we live and learn. There is no magic path that we know beforehand will always work. The only comfort is we will know where and how to correct the course if we have a goal and a target. So, I must not be smug about my investment choices and stop assuming they are the best. Trent has a significantly higher P/E ratio, suggesting higher growth expectations from investors. After Q2 result which was below the market expectations, I chose to reduce my allocation and book profit. I did not sell at the peak as the growth was good in Q1, I booked profit after Q2 results as growth reduced compared to valuation. I may be completely wrong cutting my allocation just by looking at Q2 result. Still Trent is the largest holding for me. If in Q3 the growth picks up again, I will keep my allocation as it is and may be add some more, depending on cash availability.