NHPC is a company not well talked about. But its chart seems to be a very interesting chart. 34.50 has been a strong resistance in the past, ever since 2011… But since Oct 21, there have been attempts to cross it and twice the stock price went up to 37 kind of levels before correcting for whatever reason. It has now again crossed 34.50 and today closed above 35. There are also hints of a cup and handle which the practiced eye can detect. Would be interesting to see how it goes from here. disc: no positions.
Posts in category Value Pickr
HDFC Life Insurance Company (02-08-2022)
Thank you for the update
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (02-08-2022)
MMFL Weekly: MMFL broke out of cup and handle pattern 2 weeks back with good volume. Break level was at around 950 levels. It now seems to be retesting break out levels. Stop loss can be just below the low of break out candle at around 860 and potential target can be around 1230 levels if pattern plays out successfully. So, its a potential 3:1 risk/reward trade. Good Q2 quarterly result might provide the required impetus.
Disclosure: Invested from around 945 levels.
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (02-08-2022)
Thanks for bringing this up.
Just adding some views on this to the conversation here for this one time as there is no thread on the company and it seems like an interesting situation.
- They have almost laid off a lot of their field force (several comments on YT on Novartis videos criticising the actions) - in the latest annual report no of employees is down to 81 from 500 odd earlier.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novartis-india-plots-400-job-cuts-wake-dr-reddy-s-sales-pact
Though this is sad news and unfortunate, it has meant that OPM has tripled this quarter and reduced employee costs have a lot to do with it
EPS just for this quarter was significantly above last 2 years combined.
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The products in question which are in the agreement with Dr Reddy on 1 Mg are manufactured through co-packers and were earlier marketed by Novartis India Ltd. No link to subsidiaries for the products in question. Dr Reddy’s talks about ‘repatriating’ these in their latest con-call.
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The person who led this restructuring - CEO Sanjay Murdeshwar did a very similar change of business structure with Astra Zeneca in 2016, after which the Astra Zeneca India margin profile looks very interesting. Astrazeneca’s margins improved from 3% in 2016 to 17% in 2021.
- Valuations are very reasonable vs MNC Pharma peers, but company will need to turn around the terrible performance over the last 5-7 years. This looks like an interesting development basis the same.
Discl : Recently invested, biased.
HDFC Life Insurance Company (02-08-2022)
Life insurance companies saw higher claims settlement amount during Q4FY2021-2022 and Q1FY2022-2023
Can anyone shed light on the reason for the same?
Hitesh portfolio (02-08-2022)
Ujjivan fin services trades at a discount to Ujjivan SFB because as of now its a holding company and most holding cos attract holding company discount, till the time some form of value unlocking triggers are visible. Here, in case of Ujjivan twins, the merger of holding company with the bank can be an important trigger, more so as we have an example of something similar nearing its conclusion in case of the HDFC twins.
ICICI Lombard – Quality franchise in under penetrated industry (02-08-2022)
Health insurance is not a very attractive proposition for banks.
Annual rollover of policies as opposed to long time commitment in the case of life insurance
Lower premium as opposed to a ULIP where a customer signs up to invest 50K every year. Lower premium amount automatically results in lower commission
The bulk market is always directly covered by the health insurer sales teams themselves. Group health is an institutional sales model
The average health insurance premium for a 35 year old is less than 10K per year for a 5L annual cover, even at 10% commission the intermediary will hardly earn 1K per policy.
Selling health policies through banks will not be easy. There is just too much sales effort involved for banks to take this seriously irrespective of what IRDAI says.
IRB INVIT TRUST- new game in the town! (02-08-2022)
Hi, was anyone able to attend this quarters concall. If yes, request you to kindly share the main takeways (if any).
Hitesh portfolio (02-08-2022)
To get an idea about structural growth stories, or about how a small cap can become a large cap, you should go through this lovely thread of 100 baggers started by dr pragnesh shah, who has put in a lot of efforts to put forth the idea of 100 baggers in a concise format.
Post that you can go through the VP threads on success stories of companies that came out of obscurity and became big winners. Threads like Ajanta Pharma, PI Inds, Astral, etc. Benefit of going through these threads is that you get to know what people felt and wrote when the company was a small company and how things unfolded as time went by. Its important to know opinions of retail investors in early phase of big winners, because that is what we may ourselves face when we are on to a big winner early on.
@AMAN_SHAMSHER I don’t track HG Infra.
@Jatin_Parekh I don’t track GFL.