Thanks for list out all the possiblities with points to watchout for

Thanks for the Suggestion. As of now, Added HCL & TECHM as Tracking Position Only. Will study HCL/TECHM/LTTS/ELXSI further before adding it.

For me, Valuation is the foremost parameter. If a company fails this parameter, then no matter how great it is fundamentally, I will not look at it. Just cannot accept the avoidable risk of multiple contraction plus low valuations would give margin of safety against unforeseen future circumstances.

I have Two Category of valuations depending on the type of business.

1. For non-moated businesses (average businesses) - BUY when price is at-least 25-30% Discount to Intrinsic Value calculated based on AVERAGE HISTORICAL EARNINGS (Avg ROCE, Avg EBIT margins etc.).
   This ensures that we have two tiers of margin of safety.
   One is the flat 30% discount Demanded on intrinsic value.
   Secondly, By using AVG Earnings power, we can buy when the earnings are on the lower side of the avg, thus giving a chance for reversion to mean (A very powerful and persuasive phenomenon) and also protecting on the downside against further earnings decline. (some basic business analysis is of-course required to figure out where in the cycle earnings are currently and what are the catalysts for mean reversion)

2. For Strong / Moated Businesses - Buy at Fair Value, usually 10-12 EBIT/EV Multiple, so that we get all the future growth + Multiple re-rating chance for free.Here numbers are of secondary concern and business analysis the primary. Significant judgement about business fundamentals, industry dynamics is required to determine the strength and sustainability of competitive advantages. Thus, if a company passes the business analysis test, then buying it at fair static intrinsic value would give us all the good things about growth without having to pay for it!

Wondrela Holidays

All signs of a should-avoid stock!

Many a times technical -analysis skills can help you to keep away from highly recommended, highly tracked ,high pedigree stocks.

This one falls in that category.

A quick look at the monthly chart can tell you a lot of things

a) Look at the size of the upper wicks of the candles ! Sellers come running in as soon as it tries to move up.

b) A storng resistance ( red line) , that happened to be a support -level till Dec 19.

c) RSI never went above 60 on monthly charts for the past 5 years- above 60 RSI indicates that there is momentum in buying interest .

c) All upside movement from Covid -lows is overlapping, no clear impulse wave ( as per EW)

On weekly chart - as per stage analysis, lot of up & down movement around key moving averages (10WMA,30 WMA) , Not able to break the trading range for ast one year.

In short - Basic technical-analysis skills can help oone person to stay away from traps.

Disclaimer : Charts are for study purpose only. Opinions are personal, can go wrong. No suggestions ,no recommendations.