@Chintan, As per Sep 30 shareholding pattern Only SBI Global fund has more than 1% . Most of the mentioned institution have existed the stock.
See here from BSE site.
You can check Bajaar.me also. Put Vinati name, you will find which institution has existed in which quarter. Hope this helps.
My doubt come due to number of share declared 9L and SBI holding just more than 9L share. SBI is still in profit.
Block deals of 71 lac shares on BSE at 610.
While calculating ROCE on screener, we exclude other income in numerator and correspondingly exclude cash and investments in denominator. We try to calculate it as done here: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28494399/Blog%20Links/A_Killer_Puzzle.pdf
Followed it up here: https://twitter.com/faltoo/status/675187160123883520
Hope that helps.
The volumes in BSE is ABOVE 1 Crore and is almost 10% of equity changed hands. Only CARTICA has shareholding more than 5% apart from promoters. That is huge selling and of course some one entered as well, but that is quite an exit as total value is about 650 crore approx. Reasons could be any and we should not rumour until we get official news.
A quick look at the shareholding pattern of top 10 other than promoters suggest that it could be multiple FIIs selling as no single FII holds 1 crore shares. However, this shareholding is as per Sep 2015. But, I did not see any one entering with such volume in the past 3 months.
CARTICA Capital holds 7758037 shares.
PI SH.pdf (235.6 KB)
am I missing something or Is this just FII selliing ?
Interesting.. my guess is that you will get a higher value if you do the calculations with current Index constituents only. When you sick with historical constituents, you are bound to get worse results as the non-performers move out of the index. When you keep changing the constituents, this would reflect the correct historical values. If you ignore the historical changes and only consider current constituents, checking their historical performance, it will be higher. It is for this better performance that they replace the laggards in the index. Also the better performers will have higher current weights in the index, further boosting the earnings figures. My guess is that the institutes might be doing these simple calculations rather than going to check the historical changes that happen in an index.
Value pickr has been source of good information for business analysis for last 1/2 years.Thanks Valuepickr Team and all their members for your time.I always liked contrasting views being posted which helps to look at your thesis of investing in closer detail. Since, I have been passive reader for so long, I thought I should give back. I mostly like picking stocks which kind of fits multidisciplinary analysis and have many forces working for that.So, I will share analysis brief of current Maggi fiasco and hope you have fun reading it.
Mental Models, Maggi?
History:-
Cadbury
Cadbury faced similar situation in Oct 2003, where consumers found worms in the chocolate causing major uproar in media. The sales plummeted by 30% for the quater considering the festive season where it used to witness a 15% increase. Cadbury upgraded manufacturing facility and put stricter rules for food packaging. The Brand name again revamped using project "Vishwas" and sales bounced back.
Intel
The Division bug in Intel chips caused loss of ~0.5B. Intel used new branding strategy.The famous Intel song, Intel inside logo and charisma of Andy Groove rebounded the trust in the Intel products.
Pepsi
Wide protest for high content of pesticide in Pepsi. The sales fall but it came back with ads which rebounded the trust in Pepsi.
Learnings:- Major brands facing uncertain situation bounced back.
Psychology:-
Social Proof :- Many State government banned the product even though their test was negative in contents of lead and MSG.
Hind sight bias:- People forgot the incident of Cadbury and Pepsi and they will as well forgot the incident of Maggi.
Denial Syndrome:- Maggi taste will cause strong denial syndrome in consumers and they will come back to buy it once trust is restored.
Philosophy:-
1.The company which is doing good for 40 - 50 years and due to uncertain circumstances faces a problem does not mean the company is bad.
2.Nestle as a whole derives only 25% sales from Maggi so the worst case scenario, it will lose 25% sales due to lose of brand.
3.Nestle as a whole faced some situation like this in other countries and where able to deal with it.
Finance:-
1.The Cash balance will help to deal with this uncertain situation.
2.The debt levels are low to cause any bankruptcy.
Competitive advantage:-
Demand side advantage
1.Habit/Search cost:- Maggi is synonymous for noddles.
2.Economics of Scale:- Due to high market share it is able to lower the fixed cost per product.
3.Switching Cost:- The Pavlovian effect will cause people to come back for same product.
Supply side advantage
1.Patent/Process:- The Masala for noodles is trade mark secret .
Price/Value:-
1.The stock price fall by 20% after the incident came to light which corresponded to 14K Cr decrease in market cap.But, Nestle derives only 2000Cr so in worst case the market cap should fall by 2000 Cr if we think in sales terms which clearly indicates market overreaction to the situation under the assumption if the market is efficient at the price what nestle was selling before the incident.
My statement is based on the fact that I am from the industry for the last 23 years. You can verify my statement by checking export data on Zauba.com for Vidhi's main products (copy pasted from their web site). Just remember that the data given on these sites is a few weeks old so it may only indicate the trend. My info is that prices today are lower than what they were a few weeks ago.
QUINIOLINE YELLOW, SUNSET YELLOW FCF, CARMOISINE, AMARANTH, PONCEAU 4R, ERYTHROSINE,
ALLURA RED, PATENT BLUE V, INDIGO CARMINE, BRILLIANT BLUE CFC, GREEN S, BLACK PN, CHOCOLATE BROWN HT.
I must add that such ups and downs are very normal in this industry and both companies have experienced managements who know how to manage these swings very well.
@pratyushmittal @ayushmit Just noticed that data in screener (Balance sheet,Borrowings,Cash flows) for Years 2011 and later and not matching with moneycontrol/Annual report
Hi Hitesh,
that is interesting. i always wonder how one manages to do that. for such high quality, secular growth companies, how do you decide when to get back in?. because you tend to wait for a better reentry price. moreover, if one has a fairly large position, it will be very difficult. (not for executing the transaction. but to renter with the same value or sitting on cash)
for lesser mortals like us, would you recommend stay invested and bear the time plus price correction for a while?
can you please share your views? thanks
disc: hold both ajantha and torrent