@rohitc99

I agree with you - but these type of stuff always begin with a small step and keeps escalating - as the immmediate terms become bigger and juicier. Not something I would worry about still - but I have to be cognizant of this. best is to build into MoS - to each his own.

Agree with you that profit from consumer durables has declined due to increased advertising expenses.This can be a good thing if it creates brand value in the long run; so I was intrigued and watched all their commercials from their website.In my opinion there is no wow factor for the aspirational consumer,they seem to be going for the value for money positioning.Air conditioners and tvs are products where consumers tend to push their budget a little and go for the more aspirational product.We also need to judge the quality of the products to estimate the long term potential,so we might need to know from someone who bought Lloyd's products.
I feel that the market got carried away with the retail tag and overpriced this.I would keep tracking this and when I am more convinced by their branding exercise I might consider it.

Looks like few institutions have started accumulating it and its time to Sit Tight. Few observations about the company.

• Its operating in oligopoly industry having huge scalability.

• Has assets light model with 60%+ ROE and potential high dividend yield in future

• Has high Moat as it is highly cost competitive with cost price as low as 25% of its only competitor (FHC). Operating cost is also significantly lower.

• Promotor is an intelligent fanatic with very sound Knowledge about industry and looks to be an honest person

• Growth ahead: Female Health Company(FHC) sells ~60 mn units and cupid current rate is ~15 mn. Cupid is in the process of doubling its capacity to 40 mn and looking at its cost competitiveness & market penetration, it is quite possible that cupid may be able to reach to the annual run rate of 40 mn units in 3-5 year time. Profits could be higher than sales growth due to higher margins in FC, management efforts to increase automation & efficiency, operating leverage etc.

• Valuation:Still trading at just 20x FY16E with zero institutional holding. We all know that if market starts believing in the growth story with excellent return ratio. PE multiple has no limits (e.g Eicher, Page, etc)

So Patience to Hold would be key in this story.

Raj,

I think it will be fair to say that we helped each other build conviction along with all the other valuepickrs who chipped in as well. Valuepickr is all about collectively contributing to each others success!

As stock pickers, we know only too well that there are always lingering doubts to any investment thesis, & it is at such times that we may be helping each other perhaps without even realizing!

I do believe that some very smart investors are beginning to find Cupid attractive even at current levels, so hang in there guys, Cupid looks like it's headed higher! Having said that, a bit of profit booking along the way may not be such a bad idea, but then to each, his own.

Stock fell as they cut guidance for FY17.

They were earlier guiding for 90 lakh cotton packets (guided in q1 call), now reduced guidance to 25% growth over FY16 which translates to about 70 lakh packets.

Guidance reduced because they expect no growth in cotton acreage next year, expect tough conditions to continue for next year also.

Disclosure- Reduced a bit after poor q1 but still holding the rest shares.