Q2 Results out:
Revenue up by 16% from 396 cr to 461 cr.
NP up by 21% from 49.90 cr to 60.2 cr
Pat margin increases to 13% from 12.5%.
Other income 48 lac vs 6.2 crores. (virtually nil other income this qtr)
Long term borrowings come down to 30.85 crores from 34.53 crs
Short-tem borrowings come down to 25.52 crores from 99.86 crores
Interim dividend of 21 for this quarter in addition to 19 paid in the previous quarter.
Page FY 16 Q2 results are out:
Revenue growth about 16% and Profit growth about 20%. It looks like Page is slowing down a bit. I'm concerned with the high valuations and as I see it upside is capped and is either open to a bit lower levels or under go time correction. 16% top line growth is good in this environment but I think the current valuations more than capture this kind of growth.
Balance sheet - Company paid off short term borrowings with the profits during the year, so finance costs may go down a bit in coming quarters.
It looks like there is minimal benefit of cotton prices falling so far on the P&L. So the full year EPS could be around 220. Also, I do not see any increase in other expenses where the company could be showing advertising expenses. Strange, something is amiss here for my brain.
As usual, dividend of 21 INR.
I think few issues about MPS needs reiteration (may be at the cost of repetition) ....
1) MPS is in a business where outsourcing was not a default choice for end customers. Because, it is the end product of the customer; not something happening in the back end to improve profitability or efficiency or stuff like that. It the the FINAL PRODUCT which a player like Elsevier or Cengage give to its end customers. So, the emotional, strategic, executional involvement of the customers with MPS type companies would be extremely high. And this engagement would evolve slowly and steadily.
2) Inevitability of customers of MPS giving away more and more jobs / projects to players like MPS would be evident if we study the financial and market performance of many of the publishing giants who are in the listed space .... All of them are suffering profitability pressure and are laggards in the market. But their pre-eminence as a publisher is undisputed and would remain so for many many years because of their reach, association and credibility in the academic field.
3) MPS is not a high tech business ... Their transition from a BPO to Technology player is some time away, if at all. They are among those companies who are trying to solve a problem for its end customers .... "How to produce a technical journal or a book without compromising on any factor of output at a lower cost" .... Cost / Ease / Volume are three key determinants ... On Cost, Dehradun is their answer; On Ease, a technology platform, integration with vendor is their answer; On Volume they have readiness with 50% unutilized capacity in Dehradun. But it would come once Cost / Ease / Quality gets firmly settled in the mind of the customer.
4) Large acquisition failure is the single biggest risk factor for MPS .... I think customer decamping them for a lower cost is a negligible probability event. MPS has shown success in turnaround and tiny acquisitions. My gut feel (no solid reason to back) is they would do well if they do smaller acquisitions slowly than some big bang acquisitions as cost of failure would be unbearable. And, I don't think, MPS has the operational capability or management bandwidth to manage large acquisitions.
5) .To me a modest investment case is built on assuming a 12% revenue growth, 15% profit growth from organic business and a 20% - 25% margin from a Rs. 200 - 250 Cr additional revenue from inorganic / unutilized capacity led growth in 3 years. So, a Net Profit of about 125 - 150 Cr. over 3 years + dividends.
My though note after management meet and an investment template prepared is being shared.
Disc.: I am invested and no transaction in last 30 days.
MPS Thoougt Note sept15.docx (15.4 KB)
MPS Ltd Sept15.ppt (234.5 KB)
Look at the above silver daily chart, there's right arrow clearly indicating fictitious break of the silver and on next day it broke trendline & closed below it. That’s why we have seen big down fall.
Now if silver close above to 14.815 level then we will see 15.100-15.400+ levels. And if it makes 1-2 down candle then it will follow red line big arrow and hit 14.500-14.400-14.300 below levels.
If you're long-term buyer then you must wait or keep patience!
I think it's password protected or maybe only login users can be read it. But whatever, this silver prediction looking awesome!
Guys you may check it here: http://moneymunch.com/free-commodity-gold-and-silver-technical-analysis-tips-09112015/
thxs 
Thanks, Vaibhav. How about 3 to 4 approved ANDA's. Will it take 2 years for it to have an impact ?
Brijwanth, You are not considering the potential impact from Generics expected to be on Shelf from Jan 2016 .
Does it mean its impact on revenue would take time. I am still learning about Pharma Space, So keen to know all your views.
Disc : Invested recently 3% of my portfolio
Trade Payables and Current Liabilities have a very thin line.
For eg. Payables for RM would be Trade Payables, but payables for logistics costs would be Current Liab.
Often companies have confusion and auditors make them reclassify such figures.
Even in Avanti's financials, the biggest component of Current Liablities is Creditors for expenses
During the year Inventory writedown is typically not routed through provisions. It would be adjusted in Inventory Valuations itself. So there typically is never a writeoff of Inventory Provision in financials.
In case of Avanti, provisions include -
1. Proposed dividend
2. Dividend Dist. Tax
3. Provision for tax
If they are planning a slump sale/transfer of shrimp processing unit, there would be a Capital Gain Tax for that which could affect Provision for Tax figure.
thanks praveen706 you must have enormous insights to this co since you are holding from 1985 ipo ? I am unable to get info on why they dropped the plan to allot pref shares to promoters earlier do you know ? I also am trying to see why javeris are holding stake here for many years or so can you share any info if you are aware.Pl share whats your expectation for the future from this co too it will help .
PVR Revenues came at 474 cr ,below lower end of my forecast of 520 crores. The estimates were off mainly because of the following reasons:
PVR's share of Bajrangi bhaijaan collections came in at 52 cr vs 65 cr est. . this movie played more broadly across the country than i thought , collecting a bigger chunk of boxoffice collections outside of key urban areas.
PVR's share of Bahubali revenues were at 36 cr vs 50 cr estimated. This was always going to be tricky.its difficult to project for regional movies as all sort of wild estimates float around .
F&B revenues were lower than i factored in, as per management this is because of reduced Spend per head due to higher contribution from regional movies compared to Q1.this also led to lower margins.
i will do a similar exercise towards the end of Q3 and see how close i come to actual figures.
Disclosure:
modest position <3% of portfolio . i trade in and out of stock based on the upcoming movie lineup and valuations.
