Thanks Sreenath for taking the gist out from the report.
Below is the link for complete update on Q2 FY 16:
Posts in category Value Pickr
Arvind limited – a triple play of RM tailwinds, brand growth and de-merger play/re-rating (02-11-2015)
Sachit
It's because they have launched a few brands recently - zara, children's place and these warrant high inventory and receivables (from the franchisee). I gather this by leafing through the conference calls.
That said, I think it's a big risk still and that will be a drag on any potential re-rating - all the good ones, like aditya birla nuvo, kewal kiran has a cash and carray model that results in high RoEs consistently.
Eros international (02-11-2015)
Disclosure: Not invested
I found an outstanding and instrucutive analysis on Eros group that concludes with compelling evidence that:
a) The accounting is extremely aggressive in an industry with intangible and volatile assets (films and rights) with ill qualified auditors. Free cash flow is lagging profits which are flattered by aggressive revenue booking (in some subsidiaries receivables increases are higher than sales for the year!) and capitalisation of costs to lower reported expenses
b) Complicated corporate structures and high related party transactions including surprisingly bank guarantee provided by the listed entity to the related entity! Imagine I own a listed firm which does business with my privately owned entity and I ask the listed entity to provide Bank Guarantee to it! Shows my own confidence in the listed entity.
Here's the link - Eros
Granules India Ltd (02-11-2015)
when is the con call?
Lactose India – Unique Play on Lactulose & Contract Manufacturer for MNCs (02-11-2015)
My sense is that Kerry has only acquired one part of the biz. Reference to the Davy report shared by Raj. ...only the pharma lactose biz... Page 2 of the report. Operative word being Only. Therefore, Lactose India cannot be said to be part of Kerry Group.
My limited submission
Samir
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (02-11-2015)
The story is getting better day by day !
Looks a safe bet now
disc : tracking position
Shalibhadra Finance – Steady Growth NBFC (02-11-2015)
Thanks Gurjot for posting copies of certain important pages from the FY15 AR.
Can you please also post copies of the following three pages:
Balance Sheet;
Statement of Profit & Loss; and
Cash Flow Statement.
Thanks,
Alok
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (02-11-2015)
Current year earning should be around 15... on a reasonable PE of 25, it should be trading around 375. The stock looks like undervalued after Q2 result.
Shah portfolio check (02-11-2015)
Hi Friends,
I have been in markets since 2008 fall when I was 18
I started similar to many other folks in the market. I thought I knew everything about the markets. I use to buy and sell watching some analyst on cnbc and zee business. The only thin I knew about a stock was price and p/e.
Until I came to USA in 2010 and when I first heard about buffet and read his annual shareholder report, I relialized how naive I was.
As a gujarati Bania and being from a business family (though my father never told me that I was buying all junk stocks in 2008-09), I quickly learnt how the markets work and why some business (Dhandho) are valued higher than the other.
I had my fair share of failures like Deccan chronicle (lost 95%), geodesic, 3i infotech, gvk power, reliance power and some more.
I had a few success too. Britannia, NBCC, Aurobindo and my current portfolio.
I am sharing my current portfolio and wish to hear your comments. I do run concentrated portfolio.
Can fin homes - 33%
J&k bank -11%
Kajaria ceramics - 11%
Granules India -9%
Bajaj Corp -8%
Eros international- 8%
India cements -7%
PTL enterprises-7%
Wonderla holidays -6%
Keeping an eye on Raymond's, aarti drugs, Astra microwave , century plyboard, kse.
Economic Value added (01-11-2015)
Sriram - True, As mentioned earlier a discounted EVA and DCF will yield the same result. and you're right eva is nothing but a dcf that takes into account capital costs.
However EVA and dcf still share a common problem. They require one to make projections into the future, and discount future earnings to today. So the final answer therefore is highly sensitive to the assumptions made.
And to be honest how can someone (sell side equity research analysts) possibly claim to forecast a company's capital structure 5 years from now? Or anticipate growth with a reasonable degree of accuracy 5 - 10 years out. In 2002 if someone told me that 5 years from now, even the most economically disadvantaged people in India would have a cell phone, I would have called them crazy. So if I were trying to do a DCF or an EVA analysis on Airtel, I would have been wrong by a lot.
My personal view on valuation is that no matter what one does / method one uses, their forecasts / valuation will be wrong. So i just use it as a go - no go filter.