Hi Gaurav,
Thanks for initiating a discussion on MM. This company was coming up in my Screener filters and hence i got curious. I did have a cursory look at the annual report yesterday.
Is there a way to determine who are the major customers for MM? (The split is heavily towards Commercial vehicles followed by Passenger Cars. Given that most of their business is from Americas and Europe...have they mentioned the marquee auto customers anywhere?)
Pulak
One thing I missed mentioning is that as per screener, the Dividend Payout last year was 29% and the current dividend yield is .9% which is equally great! So superb growth with great dividend yield.
With returns from real estate and gold slowing down, with government emphasis on reduction of black money, with more and more people getting banked(aadhar/payments banks...), with the improvement in economy, I believe there is going to be a big spurt in overall investments into equities in coming years. MOFS can and I believe will be a BIG BIG beneficiary. Early trends already show this if e consider the rise in its MF AUM including PMS and the home loan portfolio... The best part is MOFSL is still small with around 4600cr market cap and available at around ~25-30x current year earnings.
Really great insights. How does one factor in volatility in the portfolio (based on an individuals tolerance level and time horizon?). Is there a way to benchmark portfolio volatility scores over a period of time? (Avg Mean/Std Deviation maybe?).
The two factors i have considered so far are Industry segmentation (Discretionary, Export led, B2B/B2C, defensives etc) and a market cap segmentation.
Donald - liked your point about stability being provided by defensives like FMCG.
Akshay - Good point.
Hi,
One can still do that by clicking on customize columns and changing the order there.
A few points to consider while shortlisting Mutual Funds. Value Research Online provides a wealth of information on MFs.
If you want to manage funds from multiple Houses under a single window then Funds India and Fundsupermart offer the same, albeit only as a regular fund option. (in addition to standard brokerages like ICICI Direct)
Cheers,
Pulak
your point number 3 when to sell is the most difficult part of investing and to avoid taking any emotional decision, I have taken a decision to sell 5% of the holding when the price moves up by 5%.
This will be done 5 times and after that I will leave the stock and will take a call on the business potential of the shares,
any views from expert
This is definitely an interesting company to analyze. I see parallels being drawn with Accelya earlier in the thread. It has definitely interested me (but i am struggling to determine the right valuation for this company).
A few questions to folks who have analyzed the company ( i have had only a cursory look at the AR and Investor Presentation). Again please feel free to correct in case my points are flawed.
Assuming this is true what is Intellects Sales strategy (Apart from mentioning that 50% odd revenue is coming from Americas/Europe). How are they investing in their Sales force. Do they have a strategy on partnering with IT services companies?
Customer Tail - Product companies either are heavily dependent on a few set of customers or end up having a long customer tail with minimal revenue contribution. Is there any visibility on this so far?
Digital and Design thinking are the buzzwords in the industry today - Every company is talking about it but very few are mastering it. (Omni channel as an example has been there for ages, however its only recently that companies have started bucketing it under 'Digital'). Is this a differentiator for Intellect?
Product Replacement strategy - From a customers standpoint how do they go about integrating Intellect into their existing IT real estate without rocking the ship (given that Financial services industry has been a pioneer in IT spend and yet paradoxically has continued to use legacy systems (mainframes,AS400 etc). This is because the potential pitfalls of replacing age old stable systems is very high. Hence what may happen is that Intellect will end up doing more business with new age banks or banks in emerging countries with no past IT baggage.
Stickiness of Business - I would be interested to know what wrap around services (enhancements and upgrades) can Intellect offer to customers to have an assured annuity business in place.
So far, Gruh, PI Ind, CCL Products, MPS Ltd have declared results which are in my portfolio and all the 4 have more or less declared on the expected lines give or take few crores. I have provided my views on MPS, PI Ind in their respective threads. Repco, Page, Cupid, Virat are yet to declare. Going by other HFC results, Repco, I think should declare good results. Fingers crossed.
Though I was a bit hopeful of a better Q2, it looks like market has priced this stock superbly for the Q2 results (due to monsoon worries, may be) and the results came in just like that. Not much revenue growth but good margin kicker. Looks like margin improvement story is playing out as expected.
Today's management interview stated that some revenue in CSM shifted to H2 (may be he is alluding to the new plant commissioning?)
Some calculations:
FY 15 revenue: 1939 (rounded off).
1939*1.18 = 2289 crore revenue estimate for FY 16 at lower guidance of management (18%-20%).
Revenue covered so far in H1 2016 is 995 crore, so revenue of 1293 crore estimated for H2 FY16. Company delivered net margins of 14.5% and as per Salil's interview he expects margin improvement by a few basis points, so let's assume 15% NPM.
So net profit for H2 FY 16 would come to around, 15% * 1293 = 194 crore, which gives an EPS of 14.25 and full year FY16E EPS of 14.25+10.6= 25 EPS.
What PE one gives is subjective but with 25 EPS for FY16E on a conservative basis as per management guidance, the stock looks like little down side and good upside. PI is turning out to be a sustainable story where one can invest without losing sleep.
Disclosure: I hold so I may have vested interest on the stock.