Hrfacebuk,

Your post is clear and cogent. Thank you for that. In fact, it acted as a trigger for me to check out the data. Below are the data for total income for the first half for the last five full financial years. Except in Sept 12, they has not been a half yearly degrowth.

   Sep-15	Sep-14	Sep-13	Sep-12	Sep-11	CAGR
243.33	230.96	200.58	129.37	148.28	13.18%

As far as quarterly numbers go, it is clear that Q1 numbers look a lot weaker than Q4 of previous year and this is evident when one looks at the numbers and has also been reiterated by management multiple times. But Q2 numbers almost always look stronger than Q1 numbers; including for this year.

The abiding concern ( even for someone like me who inherently sees a lot of growth left in this company) though is that management needs to be more nuanced in their guidances, especially since now the stock is under the limelight. The days of escaping unscathed from over ambitious guidances are over for this stock. It has to pay the price of being an outperformer and that normally is nuanced and conservative guidances.

The multiples are coming from growth estimates. Underpinning them is the degree of credibility of these estimates; both on a numerical and time scale. If over time there is an established pattern of over guidance and achievement of targets, but over delayed time horizons, one can be sure the multiples will very quickly reflect that.

Having said this, I agree with your behavioural observations. My only fervent request to the management is to get their guidance philosophy right. And the deeper concern is whether this tendency to over guide is a reflection of a mindset which is getting increasingly disconnected with ground reality; given the spectacular growth over the last few years.

I also agree that it is not a bad idea to discount management guidance in this case. Keep in mind, if everyone does this, that is essentially a PE erosion which is the direct outcome of their cowboy attitude to guidance

The next quarter holds the answer.

I stay at Mulund near Kelkar company ( as we call it)

There are many companies situated in that compound (as one can see from sign boards), i m not sure if it is subsidiary of SHKelkar or private entities of promoters (Pls chk related party transactions)

Company has good land, approx around 20 acres, stretched from Balrajeshwar road, till Rmall on LBS marg, i am not sure if land holding comes under SHK or promoters private property.

Request members to please re check before investing

Disc : Not applying for IPO.

Thread seems to be dead for long.. No one sees value even with SEBI-FMC merger lingering?.. thanks

Just to add to the above post, I was going through the prospectus - link

http://www.arvindinfrastructure.com/IM-Arvind%20Infrastructure%20Limited-24.8.15-Compressed.pdf

and found the following table

A classification of these legal and other proceedings are given in the following table:

                        Particulars Criminal    proceedings Civil     proceedings Tax    Total amount involved Cr

Against our
company 1 2 3 0.79

• Amount quantified in case of tax matters only wherever possible. For the purpose of quantifying the amount
  involved, we have only considered the financial implication of litigation.

Any insights on whether these legal proceedings are with respect to any of the ongoing projects of AIL ?

67% of allocation to one stock is very high. If stock goes down by 10% and then 15% and then again by 20%, how you would react? ask this question to yourself?