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Posts in category Value Pickr
Chemicals and Speciality Chem space in India (22-10-2015)
COPY PASTE from A WEB SITE:
Chemicals - It manufacture, virtually the entire
range of metal finishing chemicals, as well as all types of equipment
and plating plants made to international specifications and supplied to
exacting standards the world over.
Engineering- It offers
a wide range of plating plants and equipments, from conventional
stand-alone units, to fully automatic program controlled systems;
integrated with effluent treatment, waste water recovery and
re-circulation procedures. Be it for general plating, plating of printed
circuit boards, continuous plating lines or pre-treatment/cleaning
machines, our production programs can meet all your needs for surface
treatment.Lubricants
Realtime Alerts for BSE Corporate announcements (22-10-2015)
Unable to register. Seems there is some technical problem.
Somi Coveyor Belts (22-10-2015)
Some things worth considering -
Loans and advances increased 50% ( in addition there is a BMW loan) in a high capex year. For what purpose have these loans been given?
Rubber prices are at an all time low . What happens to margins when trend reverses? Can they pass on the increases?
BTW - the shareholding of the ace investor mentioned has come down by 50% in the last quarter
Intellect Design Arena PICK for 2015 (22-10-2015)
Great Q2 results.
- Revenues grew by 44% YoY
- Guidance has been revised upwards from 22-26% to 26-30%.
- Two new products released.
- Maintains the forecast - To break even/become profitable in Q4 in FY 16
Disclosure - Invested.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services – Next Berkshire? (22-10-2015)
From being a pure brokerage few years back, Motilal seems to have build two new solid businesses over the last 1-2 years.
Low cost home financing(average ticket size 10 lacs) is growing at a strong pace with ~1000cr of loans disbursed as of Sep 30 2015 in just one and a half year of operation. And the Management has a plan to increase this to ~3000-3500cr by Mar'17. The yield on loans they provide is 13.5%. The inspiration on this business seems to have come from Gruh and Repco. They aim to reach 20% ROE by increasing the leverage to 7-8x in coming years.
The other second business is Asset Management including PMS where they have grown 3-4 x in last one year and have total assets ~10,000cr as of Sep 30. 2015. Their Mutual funds performed one of the best in last one year, so that is one cause for AUM to rise in addition to subscribers rise. Other thing is being a good performer, this pulls lot many individual investors to their Mutual funds in coming years. That will mean strong increase in AUMs in coming years.
Other thing Motilal management points out is that both these business have breaken even. So, any further rise in AUM or Aspire Home finance business should disproportionately add to profits going forward as fixed costs are recovered. Their guidance is that brokerage business will reduce to 1/3rd of overall business in next couple of years...so that will address lumpiness of earnings to large extent and also fortells the confidence of Management in rapid rise of these businesses.
The current Market cap is ~4600cr.
I haven't researched or studied it in lot of depth, but at the outset it seems to me a super-multibagger in the making. Other than Good Management which aims at building new businesses, opportunity size is humongous in both home loan (low cost, 10lacs cr. opportunity)and Mutual fund(if you are perceived to be one of the best). Above all current size is small to be able to make big strides for atleast next few years.
Risks of execution(as businesses are new especially home loan) and also stock markets(going up and down) to some extent are the ones I foresee.
Disclosure; I have initiated a position ~10% of my portfolio.
Lycos internet – way to digitalization (22-10-2015)
they spent 100 cr just building the hardware apparently, which i think is too much. lycos business in usa is being touted as a publisher side property, so talking about alexa rank. my submission is that we can never know which company is fraud or not, but possibly makes sense to avoid companies at less than 5-7 PE multiples (when whole market does not believe in story), for small caps, i would rather buy when they make a new high
S.H. Kelkar Ltd (22-10-2015)
Capital is being raised to retire debt firstly and give an exit to PE firm Blackstone. Promoters also diluting minor stake in the co.
All in all,its a very good business but not a good investment at the valuation IPO is asking for.
Kitex Garments Limited (22-10-2015)
Hi,
This is my first post in this forum and let me just say that based on what I have seen this is a terrific forum.
On Kitex; clearly the key tactical issue for now is what will the numbers be like for the next two quarters and will they meet their guidance of INR 600 - 650 Crores.
The seasonality data for last three years show that the second half can contribute anywhere between 54 to 60% of annual revenues. Based on numbers of first half, the full year revenues of Kitex can range anywhere between INR 471 Crores to INR 542 Crores. Applying the 20% net margin figure and using the 4.75 C Equity base, EPS looks to be around INR 20 to INR 22. The impact of such a EPS on a share trading at this multiple need hardly be spelt out.
Looking at this the other way; in order for them to reach INR 625 Crores for the full year, the second half has to generate revenues of INR 408 Crores; which is 65% of Annual Sales. Given that second half has contributed in the past upto 60% ( FY 12) the number is just tantalizingly within reach but is stretched enough to raise concern on immediate valuations.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (22-10-2015)
http://m.agrimoney.com/news/china-sugar-woes-to-drag-it-behind-thailand-in-output-league--8850.html
Abandoning sugar cane'
The bureau's downgraded forecast for Chinese sugar production reflected too ideas of a drop in cane area, driving production down 8m tonnes to 90m tonnes.
"Since 2011-12, the [state guaranteed] floor price for sugar cane has dropped by more than a quarter, while production costs are estimated to have nearly doubled, largely due to higher labour costs.
"Farmers have increasingly been abandoning sugar cane and switching to specialty crops to increase farm income."
This has led to China sugar imports increase by 50%.
Drought in Cuba too contributes to sugar deficit predictions.