this news is actually enough to cause a worry in our mind..
Nd main thing is that things hav changed...nw its no more cheap as it ws 2 years back..growth is der but factors contributing to the growth are fading..
nd sooner or later countries with disease issue will start exporting nd avanti nd india will loose its export advantage & quantity ..nd prices hav already reduced by ~30-35%..
so its better to book some profit or exit completely then repenting later..
it has given a fabulous return..!!
A 10x for me personally..!!
Posts in category Value Pickr
Avanti Feeds (10-10-2015)
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 45%)! (10-10-2015)
Because of the equity dilution in 2012 (from 14cr to 38cr paid up capital), the FY15 consol EPS of 12 is close to the FY2011 EPS of 11.
If you look at it from that angle, not much wealth has been created. Profits have increased but as @manishinlucknow has said, the debt is growing faster than sales and profits. And EPS is back to square one.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/neocorp/results/consolidated-yearly/NS02
Stop Loss in Value Investing (10-10-2015)
Beauty of the market is both buyer and seller thinks they are acting correct. Whenever you want to sell stock because of its price down think like "You don't have that particular company shares in your demat account, you know the company business very well and you have enough money".Now what is your decisions? Obviously in most of the cases its BUY.
So the same YOU acts in different ways depends on different circumstances.
There are different reasons for the fall of the stock price. Mostly its based on macro factors. Remember what happened in September 1st week. All shares were down by 20 to 30% because of global cues. If u had followed stop loss obviously u had to sell most of your stocks. But after one month market almost recovered. So you would have lost money if u followed stop loss.
In my opinion instead of following stop loss we must track the factors and if factors belongs to that particular company then we must take decision accordingly.
Neo Corp-Growth Machine in Technical Textiles(CAGR 45%)! (10-10-2015)
the debt level is high.
the rise in debt is more than the rise in sales which is a clear negative for me.
also as per @hafizul88 the promoter quality is not good.
low promoter holding. high pledging.
issue of warrants is a negative for me. I don't like warrants.
My question is - if the business is doing well and the profits are real then the debt is increasing.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (10-10-2015)
i am not an expert on sugar but being cyclical a change an uptrend in the cycle will definitely give good returns.
BUT i seriously doubt that the returns will be similar to those as in previous cycle like the one in 2005-06.
The sugar cycle is not purely market based and is severely distorted by the government due to fixing of very high cane prices.
even if there is a sharp rise in sugar price, a part of the cash flow will go in paying off the debts to the farmers. At present the total debt owed by sugar industry is about 12000 Cr +
Also the govt in all likelihood will remove the export subsidy and other incentives given to sugar industry in such case.
The farmers may start demanding higher cane prices which their unions have been doing anyway.
Still since the sugar stocks are quoting at historical lows , the returns can be exciting depending on the jump in the sugar prices.
Disc : Invested in Kesar ent and Triveni eng
Cafe Coffee Day – Will you Date? (10-10-2015)
I will stay clear from this. I have heard that it is highly politically connected company. Most of the value comes from real estate acquisition at "right time" at "right place". Supposed to be recipient of huge favours from Cong or non-BJP govts. The core business is going to face tough competition from Starbucks. I have used their vending machines in our offices and it used to be under maintenance every second day. Coffee they serve is ok but snacks menu is avoidable with no clear differentiation. Also, laden with unrelated businesses.
Cafe Coffee Day – Will you Date? (10-10-2015)
rakesh junjunwala is invested in the name of rare enterprises
Support for fresh portfolio building – Thanks (10-10-2015)
Seniors,
Jain Irrigation (De-merger in cards) -- I did not see any news about this and please anyone explain what is the impact of demerger.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (10-10-2015)
I have been buying (since the last 2 years) EID Parry and DCM Shriram on dips (and boy, do they dip!!). The attraction is a) Sugar Business in both cases is only 30-40% of their total business b)their other business (Coromandel and Bioseeds, in the case of EID Parry, and Fertilizers, Seeds, Alkali and Plastics in the case of DCM Shriram) are extremely well run and well regarded c)debt levels are quite reasonable.
My logic is (was) that I have no control over sugar prices. However, the history of Sugar Prices has been that every few years, these companies have a real blockbuster year. However, even in bad years, these two companies don't go into a loss, their debt remains under control, and they give dividends. So there is no risk to survival. Frankly, if sugar prices were to stay at current levels for a couple more years, than Shree Renuka iwill not the only one in deep trouble.
The flip side is that you don't get as much of a bounce if Sugar Prices go crazy. But that is the price I am willing to pay for Margin of Safety.
Shilpa Medicare -Racing away on the Oncology API highway! (10-10-2015)
Hi Donald,
We missed you at the AGM this time...interaction would have been even better Kudos to Ankit and Anant for doing a in-depth and complete job....they continue to surprise with the level of detailing they have gone into.
On your query for revenue drivers - I feel that nothing major would happen till they get USFDA approval. I could see a lot of shift in focus of the company towards formulations going forward (which is a good thing) and getting the same will open up next set of opportunities on which they have been working. They have about 9 months to 1 year by which they should get approvals, any further delay may hamper their pipeline and plans.
Ankit has covered the specific answers above.
Regards,
Ayush