Please the following link http://www.indianivesh.in/Downloads/635798102875790000_NiveshDaily_-_5_October_2015.pdf

Deepak,

If you go through co's conference call and presentations - they mention that 80-85% of the business is from replenishment - implying recurring nature (the frequency may not be yearly though)

Also, the products - towels, sheets - think for yourself what would be the life of such products? naturally after every 1-2-3 years we would require such products again. Also, around 60-65% of business is from US - which is in great shape atleast in terms data coming out for home sales, etc. Welspun is increasing geographic reach by expanding in Japan/Middle East. They are also expanding their product base and now catering to hotels, etc wherein the frequency of requirement would be much higher. Hence, I believe management guidance of mid teens growth in revenue for next 3-4 years is very much possible and realistic I believe.

See these charts below to get a macro view on whats happening in US regarding home sales - which in turn would automatically translate into demand for Welspun's products in addition to many many other home building/related products (think of Pokarna and its products, can be another good medium term bet)

In fact being export oriented is a major plus, I find export oriented co's better relatively.

Disc: My largest holding and views will be biased.

Conf Call Key highlights by Capital Mkt
Overall hair oil volume grew by 0.5% during April to August period. Light hair oil (LHO) grew by 6.6% during same period. Coconut oil, cooling oil and ayurvedic oil volume declined during same period.
The net sales for September 2015 quarter have increased by 11% to Rs 208.19 crore. Volume grew by 8%. Almond Drop (ADHO) sales grew by 11% to Rs 187.46 crore with volume growth of 6%. OPM increased by 337 bps to 31.1% due to fall in raw material cost and advertisement cost. As a result, the operating profit increased by 24% to Rs 64.72 crore. The profit before tax and EO has increased by 20% to Rs 71.21 crore due to rise in OPM. The net profit has inclined by 25% to Rs 46.78 crore due to rise in OPM. During the quarter, average price of LLP decreased to Rs 58.82/kg from Rs 84.27/kg in corresponding quarter of previous year. Average price of Refined Oil increased to Rs 82.02/kg from Rs 69.99/kg in corresponding quarter of previous year.LLP for Q3 is fully covered.Current LLP buying is at Rs 52-53/kg.The mgmt said that the full drop of LLP prices is not yet captured in P&L due to stock buildup.
ADHO primary offtake grew by 7.8%. Secondary volume offtake grew by 9%.ADHO value market share is 61%.ADHO is now present in 2.91 retail outlets.The price gap between LHO and coconut oil has decreased.ASP was 17% of sales in Q2. Ad spend on Nomarks brands double in last 2 quarters.
Nomarks turnover in Q2 was Rs 10.3 crore, drop by 26%. As per the management, it is in 2nd phase of integration of brands of Nomark into Bajaj Corp, as such there was reduction in SKU and stocks at retails, which impacted the sales.Anti-blemish cream category has grown by 23% during April – August period. Facewash category has grown by 34%.60% of cream sales come from chemist shops and for facewash it is 10-12%. The company is now shifting distribution from chemist to general trade.
The company has added 6 new countries in its international business. It is doing registration of Nomarks brands across various countries. It will enter into Africa and CIS countries.For Q2, growth came from Urban region. Rural growth was disappointing. The gap between rural and urban growth has reduced to 4%.The mgmt said that it don't see any scope of good volume growth in near future.Tax rate would be around 20% plus.

Coverage of Kitex in US local media

http://www.northjersey.com/news/business/indian-baby-clothes-maker-opens-montvale-office-to-target-u-s-1.1428531

Notes:

a) As we are aware, Kitex is looking to design its own clothing for the U.S. market, to be sold under its own brand, "Little Star,"

b) It has acquired exclusive rights to sell Lamaze baby clothes in the U.S.

c) The company opened a 4,000-square-foot office on Summit Avenue earlier this month, and officially launched it at a ceremony Tuesday attended by Montvale Mayor Roger J. Fyfe and local business leaders. The office has three employees, and expects that to grow to about 20, including executives, sales people and designers, in the coming months

d) Kitex is foraying into 'design ' . Let's see whether it can integrate its manufacturing capabilities with the not so easy aspect of 'design'. 'Design' is completely a different ball game and generally success rate of new players isn't very high.

e) As per the above link, company is opening its online website

f) Kitex USA will begin selling the Lamaze brand next fall, and Little Star the following spring

g) 'Organic Clothing' - It is foraying into this new trend. Need to understand / get info about it- how much sales Kitex is targeting/ cost and margins of organic clothing / Is it a future revenue segment or just an experiment / etc.

h) Linda Harmon, executive director Lamaze International--spoke affirmatively about Kitex regarding its manufacturing and production capabilities

Risks/ Key item to monitor--Creating its own brand would definitely pump up Kitex's profitability but branding (esp in the land of Brands -US) is not everyone's cup of tea.

As mentioned in the article, Indian and Chinese players in US suffer from a perception bias wrt quality of products.

Let's see how things pan out.

Disclosure: Invested from lower levels