lot of good things are going to happen in next 2-3 years for granules and its margins are going to improve. Its just an calculation ( close to 9) and i have to right to go wrong also.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Granules India Ltd (21-09-2015)
Agree, even I'm looking at an EPS of around 6.5 for FY17. Whatever ANDAs, Auctus APIs commercializations, JV with omnichem will start bearing fruits from FY 17 mid / FY 18. If everything goes as per expectations, by FY 20 we will see full impact which is 4 FYs from now but of course market will discount ahead of these events but I feel FY16 is a bit optimistic. We should wait for company to deliver on one major promise? I know that we may miss some upside but we will ride the surer upside then.
Granules India Ltd (21-09-2015)
Hi, how did you get EPS of 9? The recent Motilal Oswal report pegs it at 6.8 only!!!
Have you taken into consideration the recent equity dilution into the calculations?
Granules India Ltd (21-09-2015)
Friends i feel correct way(highly debatable) will be to calculate FY17 instead of FY16. Granules might do close to 9 so still cheap.
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE — double bottom (21-09-2015)
SEZ news related to SREI in ET
just one more thing:
it has got 250 page AR
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (21-09-2015)
Good summary @atishay1 ...
Also,the agm is on 28th of september . Interested people can join .. the management is willing to take reasonable questions from shareholders .
Forensics and the art of triangulation (21-09-2015)
Skeletons from Satyam cupboard can be disturbing. As you mentioned Prof Palepu on its board is one of the corporate irony.
1. Incidentally, he was on board of another Indian company (Dr Reddy's Lab) upto that time and quit after 2009. DRL got land in 2003 through a deal where they bought satyam institute of e business, subsidiary of sify, which in turn was subsidiary of satyam.
2. Among the directors on board of satyam who approved Maytas deal were Krishna Palepu, professor at Harvard, it was reported by WSJ same time.
3. SFIO charged & argued that Krishna Palepu should pay back professional charges of Rs 2.66 crore stating it was paid to him by satyam illegally.
Prima Plastics (21-09-2015)
Hi!
Do you think they can increase their market share in the coming years , considering the untapped markets of South and West. Will it be able to compete with nilkamal , Cello or Supreme in the long run? Are they doing enough marketing ?
Granules India Ltd (21-09-2015)
Hi mods - we are just involving in a healthy debate.
You are right, I used FY15 EPS of 4.5. 131.5/4.5 = 29.2.
In my original post, I have also estimated the FY 16 EPS as 5.85 (so I'm looking into FY16 as well).
2 points to extend what I wrote on my original post,
On FY16E EPS, at current prices, PI Industries is at 26 PE, Repco is at 24 PE, Granules is at 22 PE. So I felt at these valuations the other 2 stocks are making more sense for the reasons mentioned above. My opinion!
While I wrote FY16E EPS in above point, we only have results of 1 quarter for FY16 and calculating completely on FY16 PE might be a bit over the board while I agree that we should look forward in stock markets and I agree to your point on this.
That's it and I really would like to know your opinion on GRANULES investment case so I can dig further, so please put your views.
Granules India Ltd (21-09-2015)
Like your spirit 
Anyway - how'd you arrive at 29 times earnings calculation?
And if you used FY15 earnings numbers - then that's what I'm saying instead of looking forward at FY16 EPS, you're looking backwards at FY15 EPS.
Or unless you believe FY15 EPS = FY16 EPS (which is a different and debatable point of view)