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Posts in category Value Pickr

Kwality Ltd. – Kwality Stock (20-09-2015)

Hi,

I also pondered on this stock considering its valuation and market share. There is a huge margin of safety as far as valuations are concerned.

Sales have been consistently growing, crossing 5800 Cr in FY 15. This I guess is top most by a private player in dairy sector after cooperatives such as Amul (20K Cr), Mother Dairy etc.

EBIDTA - close to 10% - better than peers ranging in 5 to 6 %.

Historically company has been in B2B sector processing milk for Amul and later foraying into supplying milk products to organized retailers.

The present business mix is 70% B2B and 30% B2C along with 61% non-branded sales and 39% branded sales (Dairy Best).

The focus of the company according to recent presentation seems to be on
- Direct Procurement (presently only 15% is direct and target 50%).
- Focus on retail business - transforming from commoditised player to branded one - drivers are value added products, brand development, retail network strengthening

Debt levels are high but as voiced, considering growth these are justified.

The important aspect is that company tried raising funds by diluting stake twice
- Jan 2014 - Rabo Equity Advisors - Funds 500Cr @ Valuations 3500 Cr approx
- Sep 2011 - Funds 500Cr to 1000Cr - Either debt or equity
It would be worthy to find reasons for inability to do so since many other dairy companies raise funds at much better valuations except those were already in retail market chase.

http://www.vccircle.com/news/others/2014/01/21/news-roundup-kumar-birla-plans-sell-minacs-rs-1600cr

Also, there have been issues like operator scam etc in script where 50+ entities were barred from operating. The chart shows this with majestic fall of Nov '2011. Though the promoters seems to have come out clean, market still has given them clean-chit i guess considering valuations.

Heritage Dairy - trading at 29X
Prabhat Dairy listing tomorrow - 40X

Many other including Tirumala, Parag raised PE money at very good valuations in the past. It's been golden period as far as fund raising is considered for dairy companies. Though Kwality raised debt, it failed to raise equity.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/kwality-presentation-upto-march-31-2015-1729161.html

Looking forward to inputs.

Disclosure - Invested.

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Sintex – Improving Sales & Profitability (20-09-2015)

would love to understand your thoughts on teh repeated governance concerns that keep arising in sintex - esp the latest one about zap infratech being sold to a related company for debentures and terms of debentures being changed without informing shareholders. These adventures keep acting as a drag on any potential re-rating of the stock and the stock trades at rock bottom valuations.

I am invested in sintex

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Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (20-09-2015)

Just add to that if we can find out what is the succession planning for the current chairman
Also how is the response from the female users about the effectiveness of this product

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Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (20-09-2015)

I've been nibbling at KPIT and CARE, for precisely the same reasons as you mention above. These companies are going to stay and seem to have hit a temporary road hump, the former in terms of sentiment due to one bad quarter and the latter possibly in terms of Amtek Auto.

I'm a little mixed on Tata Motors because I have no way yet to determine whether or not their Chinese setback is temporary or is more of a structural change, with local Chinese models starting to take share. While premium branding of JLR remains, its hard at this point for me to determine whether that will restore market share in future, or will yield to local Chinese competition. Perhaps this stock needs a little bit more margin of safety.

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Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-09-2015)

Ranvir sir, the disclosure of your portfolio is crystal clear. I do hope all our members follow the same in the interest of novice members.

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Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (20-09-2015)

varrun jain sir,your presentation is clean and crystal clear. I do expect all members to follow the siut.

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Thomas Cook India-Will it move like Warren Buffet Stock (20-09-2015)

hello guys , does anyone had worked /information on thomas cook SOTP VALUE ?? ...... it seems major reveune is from quess corporation followed by travelling business ..... sterling still to show some remarkable performance ....

http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/business/acquired-kuoni-at-reasonable-price-thomas-cook_2421241.html

as per mgmt , kuoni seems a reasonable buy

disclosure - have a position

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Orbit exports (20-09-2015)

united arab emirates trading comanies are basically front companies .....need to see that is company expanding it's foot print in middle east region ..then only it is logical .. otherwise it is book dressing of some nature

disclosure - have a small position

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Sintex – Improving Sales & Profitability (20-09-2015)

  • The total amount raised as FCCB was $140 million. At the end of FY2015, they had cleared $116mn.

  • The paid up equity share capital of the Company as on July 15, 2015 stands increased from Rs. 44,59,23,717/- to Rs. 44,65,50,721/- divided into 44,65,50,721 Equity shares of Re. 1/- each. The FY2015 year-end number of outstanding shares were 42,63,61,194.

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Hitesh portfolio (20-09-2015)

gruh looks range bound. It seems it needs to cross congestion zone of 270-275 to resume its uptrend. But it seems ot have established good support base between 220-240 levels.

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