OFS proved to very successful, probably institution got allotment near 828-830 and retailers got allotment 841-842, heavy volume with high delivery in last 3-4 days has significantly absorb the supply, Probably within weak the full supply will be absorbed. Now stock performance will depend on quaterly results specially the topline growth as everything else is fine.
GLS is expected to continue its 90% Complex Generic API supply with 10-15% CDMO until Solapur Plant comes online.
But a interesting thesis has come from Sh Kenneth Andrade of Old Bridge Capital that by 2030 Indian Generic Pharma will be at the same spot as Indian IT Sector. Indian Generic Pharma will consolidate & capture world Generic Market by 2030. If his thesis remains valid than GLS will be a major beneficiary. Hopefully the Growth will start appearing in GLS in next couple of quaters which is missing from last 2 years.

How much of a factor does election has played in the overall degrowth in net loan origination since this time the elections were also prolonged almost 1.5 months and businesses tend to avoid taking big loans ahead of uncertain policy outcomes? Maybe comparing it with Q updates of peers in MSME lending would give a clear picture.

I am quite interested to see how they fare on the below mentioned three areas.

1. Ramping up business from parent HDFC Bank – This hasn’t kicked off yet even after an year since merger. Looks like they have been setting things up with some dedicated & senior level team exclusive for the HDFC bank channel. The contribution from parent can be really big due their sheer network size

2. Acquisitions – I didn’t listen to the con-call but I did see a note where they seemed to have mentioned about actively looking at M&A. If true, this should be interesting as the AUM size can grow much faster (also have to see the cost of any such acquisitions as it may not be cheap given the buoyancy in the market)

3. AIF – They keep mentioning this regularly. I don’t have much idea about the business size. Perhaps someone knowledgeable can given an idea about the potential size & profitability?

Ugro capital is scaling down on supply chain financing…as explained in the last concall…

Those vendors supplying to AAA rated companies and those dealers buying from AAA rated companies are getting loans from banks @7.5%…whereas ugro capital cost of capital ia 10.5%…so to get higher yield, they were forced to go to BBB rated dealers and vendors …which leads to spike in NPAs…so they decided to scale back on this financing

Excluding supply chain financing…AUM has gone up from 6192 crores to 8765 crores QnQ…

Now instead of financing top of the supply chain…dealer and vendor…they are moving to the bottom of the supply chain…the retailers…where yields are higher…there is no competition from banks…and more amenable to their Grow platform / data analytics / cash flow analysis.

Mngt needs to clarify only one thing…do they still stand by their target of 18000-20000 crores AUM by end of Fy2026?