It will be good if you share some feedback on Indri and Camikara
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Nuvama Wealth Management: Proxy to Affluent India (31-05-2024)
Agree that it has not entered into fullfledged stage 3 and also not breached 30 week EMA…But its down by almost 15% from its recent peak and also from April start till now , almost 2 months it has been flat and going down. It has breached 10 week EMA from last 2 weeks and slope of 10 week EMA and 20 week EMA has been flat. Its not an ideal condition to enter into. But those who have already invested from lower levels, they have to watch for next 2-3 weeks to see if it consolidates or moves higher…
Nuvama Wealth Management: Proxy to Affluent India (31-05-2024)
Agree that it has not entered into fullfledged stage 3 and also not breached 30 week EMA…But its down by almost 15% from its recent peak and also from April start till now , almost 2 months it has been flat and going down. It has breached 10 week EMA from last 2 weeks and slope of 10 week EMA and 20 week EMA has been flat. Its not an ideal condition to enter into. But those who have already invested from lower levels, they have to watch for next 2-3 weeks to see if it consolidates or moves higher…
V-Mart Retail Ltd (31-05-2024)
Hi – anyone here tracking V-Mart closely and still optimistic or foresee.a turnaround considering overhang around Limeroad acquisition, rural economy, rising competition with big brands making inroads into smaller cities? Holding a big position and contemplating switching out. Thanks in advance
Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Limited (31-05-2024)
Kind of “Yes” but need not to jump on to the conclusions.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (31-05-2024)
since i am from same industry i would like share some key inputs . Premium Branded IMFL segmented is dominated by MNC i.e Pernod Ricard , Diageo , Suntory , William Grants , Bacardi . Pernod Ricard dominates premium segment above Blenders pride segment and there is virtual duopoly with Pernod and Diageo enjoying huge shares .Only brand which has been able to make some dent in premium segment is Rockford from Modi Distilleries rest all companies have tried to break monooly of Pernod but none succeeded . Coming to Bottled in India scotches Diageo enjoys better shares with brands like Black Dog , Black & White , Vat 69 . Pernod with 100 Pipers, Passport , Oken Glow is close second . Suntory with Teachers also has good share. Bacardi with Dewar’s white label ,William Lawson is also doing good .Pernod is now bottling Ballentine in India William Grant is also bottling Grants in India . In BIO blended whisky segment Diageo, Pernod enjoy huge shares i.e Diageo with Johnnie Walker Range of Whiskies , huge range of single malts , coal ila , Glenkinchhie , etc Pernod with Chivas , Ballentine , Royal Salutes Glenlivet . Grants with Glenfiddich Grants also has huge range and all MNC has good portfolio of BII and BIO brands and market for premium brands is growing more than 20%.
My portfolio updates and investment journey (31-05-2024)
Result season is over, if it is possible kindly post an updated Portfolio as you said earlier, it would be beneficial if you could provide the reason behind your new picks, and why you keep existing stocks after results thanks in advance.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (31-05-2024)
Steel Strip Wheels –
Q4 and FY 24 concall highlights –
Total manufacturing capacity –
Steel Wheels – 200 lakh @ 78 pc utilisation. This capacity is slated to expand to 270 lakhs in FY 25
Alloy wheels – 36 lakh @ 82 pc utilisation. This capacity is slated to expand to 48 lakhs in FY 25
No of manufacturing plants – 05
Sales contribution from Steel : Alloy wheels @ 72:28 vs 69:31 in FY 23 ( in value terms )
Domestic PVs mkt share @ 42 pc
MHCV mkt share @ 61 pc
Tractor mkt share @ 42 pc
OTR mkt share @ 70 pc
Key models to which company is supplying alloy wheels to include – Creta, Alcazar, Venue, Carnival, Sonnet, Nexon, Punch, Salvia, Astor, Verna, Aura. Company is in talks with Maruti Suzuki for supply of alloy wheels. Supplies may commence by next FY
Export : Domestic revenues breakup
@ 15:85
Export sales grew by 116 pc from 293 to 634 cr in FY 24
Q4 financial outcomes –
Sales – 1069 vs 1005 cr, up 6 pc
EBITDA – 111 vs 108 cr, up 2.5 pc ( margins @ 10.4 vs 10.8 pc )
PAT – 60 vs 47 cr
Alloy wheel volumes @ 8 vs 7 lakh
Steel wheel volumes @ 39 vs 38 lakh
FY 24 financial outcomes –
Sales – 4357 vs 4041 cr, up 8 pc
EBITDA – 465 vs 443 cr, up 5 pc ( margins @ 10.7 vs 11 pc )
PAT – 220 vs 194 cr, up 13 pc ( due lower tax outgo as the company has opted for new tax regime )
Alloy wheel volumes @ 30 vs 28 lakh
Steel wheel volumes @ 160 vs 148 lakh
Long term Debt @ 487 cr. Total Debt @ 1048 cr
( due aggressive incremental Capex and acquisition of AMW autocomponents )
Cash on books @ 31 cr
Completed the acquisition of AMW autocomponents in FY 25 ( they also make steel wheels )
Seeing slowdown in CV sales in Q1 due ongoing elections
Company looking to sell 200 lakh wheels
( alloy + steel ) in FY 25 vs 190 lakh in FY 24. Expecting 10 pc growth in the exports business. Alloy wheels export business doing well. Overall topline growth guidance for FY 25 is also @ 10 pc
Expect to start generating revenues from their Aluminium Knuckles business. SSWL is the first company in India to make Al-Knuckles. It’s an import substitute product. Have signed up with 2 OEMs for supply of these Knuckles ( mainly used in SUVs ). Expecting to do a business of around 35 cr in FY 25, 70 cr in FY 26 and around 140 cr in FY 27 from this segment
Expecting the growth rates to increase in the alloy wheels segment wef FY 25 ( that should be margin accretive )
Company did face a lot of pricing issues wrt their steel wheels business in FY 24. They r in talks with 2 major OEMs for a price revision. They r hopeful of a positive outcome in near future. Also in talks with Maruti-Suzuki for supply of alloy wheels. That may also materialise going forward. These are key positive triggers lined up for the company
The current debt figures are likely to be the peak debt figures. Not planning to take on any additional debt
In FY 25 – growth is mainly gonna come from tractor wheels, exports and alloy wheels business – all these r margin accretive ( vs domestic steel wheels business for PVs + CVs ) – this is likely to have a positive impact on EBITDA margins. Plus there r fair chances of breakthrough on the price negotiations that the company is having with OEMs for domestic steel wheel pricing
Company’s main competitors for exports are based out of Malaysia, Vietnam. However, they do have a higher freight disadvantage vs an Indian manufacturer
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
Microcap momentum portfolio (31-05-2024)
Here the idea and focus is not on a single stocks, hence there is no search for multibaggers. A portfolio of trending stocks is followed here, and as such, this is a CAGR/XIRR game. And as there are no fundamental checks involved, many stocks hitting stop losses and exiting the PF happens, which may not necessarily the case with individual picks. One can add more when the price falls, there need not be a stop loss as such, in the first place.
Allocation, even if increased to an existing position which has been performing for months, may not add great value by itself, as there will be many other stocks which will have more impact, on both sides.
This is more a process driven, passive approach, practiced over lengthy periods.