Guys, are the valuations too ripe now? Screener shows P/E of 50. If the anticipated new molecules do not show up in the results… would it take a massive beating?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Skipper Ltd., (Power and Water) a moat in making? (08-04-2024)
Promoter Holding has come down by 5% in February 24 as that of December 23. Any Idea about this?
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (08-04-2024)
SBI card – Opportunity to enter for mid to long term
SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd is currently trading near multi year lows. Below is my analysis for the stock based on my limited knowledge and readings.
Why we are at multi year lows?
The company is posting record breaking sales every quarter. Despite rising sales and rising EBITDA the interest component is also increasing because we are in higher interest rate cycle. COF = cost of funds.
Narrative bhagwaan chhe –
Since last couple of years, there was a broad narrative that UPI and wallet payments are giving slow death to Credit Cards. These kind of narratives impact P/E multiple of industries.
“Aaj tum jisse lad rahe ho, kal wahi tumhare achhe dost honge” Things are changing fast. UPI can now be linked with credit cards (currently only RuPay). This is slowly becoming popular. Excerpt from concall –
He mentioned avg ticket size is 880, small transactions are also being paid thaough credit cards via UPI barcode.
Last week new set of rules came which further cements credit card & UPI partnership –
The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has announced new features for the RuPay Credit Card on the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) platform. The new features announced include EMI facility on the linked credit accounts on UPI app, Credit Account Bill Pavment, Instalment Payment and limit management. The NPCI has asked issuing entities like banks and card issuers to enable these features by May 31, 2024
EMI is a highly profit generating segment for credit card companies.
What about Visa and Mastercard?
It is possible to use your visa/ mastercard for UPI but it is a 2 step process –
All major banks have enabled downloading virtual Rupay cards on phones for free.
Ending note –
With pilling up of US federal debt, the interest rate cycle is bound to turn sooner or later and we will enter lower interest rate regime. The markets are already pricing in interest rate cuts from June. Companies like SBI card thrives on lower cost of funds. I believe the stock is available at cyclical bottom from interest rate point of view. On the other hand, with the exit of Paytm wallet and convergence of UPI & credit cards we are looking at a whole new world of possibilities. The Gen Z likes to pay everything by scanning a QR code and they also like to buy now & pay later. Market share of credit cards is not going to decrease but will rise due to supportive policies which have come up in the last few months. India in itself is a growing economy that means more credit users and more spend per card.
Disclaimer – Holding. Not an expert, not registered with SEBI.
Microcap momentum portfolio (08-04-2024)
@R_Sawkar As I have mentioned previously also, I do not have the resource to do any backtesting.
However, I can say that the reason for having 25 stocks (and not 10) is to minimise the risk. When you have 10 stocks only, the allocation is 10% for each stock. If and when it falls, it can affect the overall pf a lot. Whereas, when you have 25 stocks, the allocation is just 4% per stock and hence risk is less.
Glenmark – Will Innovation Pay? (08-04-2024)
Ichnos presented data on isb 2001 in american association of cancer research with findings in phase 1 on patients. Claiming superior tumour killing potency over existing drugs.
Details on ichnos glenmark website
The Anti-Portfolio (08-04-2024)
Latest folio status:
CAGR approx 33% since inception, 6.5 years ago. Currently 3% up from previous peak. 165% up in past year.
Total 29 stocks.
Average cost of share data is only correct technically as per FIFO method for taxation of gains computation, where bonus happened older shares have higher cost and which get sold first, it is making average buy price look artificially low, such as for KPI green, Tinna etc.
Financials are having issues mainly from sectoral rotation, bargain sale is on since fundamental story is fairly intact. Phantom digital is facing the angst regarding competition from AI. Several have high expectations backing them, the ride is bound to be volatile in names like RBM infra, Kotyark, HBL etc. Beta drugs is mostly a mistake, not in hurry to exit, position size is very small.
Started to increase withdrawals monthly to build a safe fixed income pool like bank deposit or debt fund etc, likely make it around 5-10% of folio size over next 2-3 years.
Company name | Last price | Cost per share | % of Total | Return % pa | Total Return % | Current Return % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KPI Green Energy Ltd. | 1720 | 53 | 10.0 | 202 | 4724 | 3147 |
Tinna Rubber And Infrastructure Ltd. | 836 | 103 | 6.2 | 245 | 831 | 711 |
Ceinsys Tech Ltd. | 651 | 355 | 5.9 | 666 | 83 | 83 |
Shilchar Technologies Ltd. | 4240 | 2378 | 5.2 | 596 | 78 | 78 |
E2E Networks Ltd. | 1039 | 614 | 5.0 | 486 | 69 | 69 |
Sharda Motor Industries Ltd. | 1431 | 1233 | 3.6 | 40 | 16 | 16 |
Azad Engineering Ltd. | 1330 | 1159 | 3.4 | 186 | 15 | 15 |
Zen Technologies Ltd. | 1040 | 858 | 3.3 | 188 | 21 | 21 |
Ugro Capital Ltd. | 257 | 196 | 3.2 | 20 | 63 | 31 |
Sanghvi Movers Ltd. | 1320 | 1036 | 3.2 | 108 | 27 | 27 |
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd. | 385 | 124 | 3.2 | 76 | 365 | 211 |
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd. | 250 | 257 | 3.2 | -12 | -4 | -3 |
Indraprastha Medical Corporation Ltd. | 237 | 188 | 3.1 | 243 | 26 | 26 |
Anuh Pharma Ltd. | 245 | 204 | 3.0 | 231 | 20 | 20 |
Phantom Digital Effects Ltd. | 462 | 485 | 3.0 | -10 | -7 | -5 |
Permanent Magnets Ltd. | 1243 | 1059 | 3.0 | 204 | 17 | 17 |
All E Technologies Ltd. | 275 | 256 | 3.0 | 27 | 7 | 7 |
Arman Financial Services Ltd. | 2136 | 2236 | 3.0 | -6 | -5 | -4 |
Kotyark Industries Ltd. | 1189 | 1247 | 3.0 | -24 | -5 | -5 |
Time Technoplast Ltd. | 260 | 221 | 2.9 | 21 | 10 | 18 |
Interglobe Aviation Ltd. | 3511 | 3198 | 2.8 | 24 | 11 | 10 |
Exicom Tele-Systems Ltd. | 229 | 242 | 2.7 | -47 | -5 | -5 |
3B BlackBio Dx Ltd | 759 | 355 | 2.7 | 50 | 284 | 113 |
Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. | 1293 | 806 | 2.4 | 74 | 102 | 60 |
HBL Power Systems Ltd. | 499 | 580 | 2.3 | -60 | -14 | -14 |
Godawari Power And Ispat Ltd. | 750 | 763 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd. | 586 | 147 | 2.2 | 61 | 391 | 299 |
Beta Drugs Ltd. | 1380 | 1509 | 2.0 | -30 | -12 | -9 |
RBM Infracon Ltd. | 622 | 667 | 1.3 | -35 | -7 | -7 |
Total Stocks | 100 | 33.3 | 126 | 48 |
Past year graph: (courtesy zerodha)
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor, please do your due diligence before investing.
Investing Strategy for next 1-2 years (08-04-2024)
Thanks for sharing companies you have invested and also your watch list. I humbly request that you include the selection criteria and the data points to monitor for each company. It will be useful for an investor to unerstand your point of view. I also strongly recommend you to disclose if you are a SEBI registered advisor or your points are for academic purpose only. ?hanks once again.
IDFC First Bank Limited (08-04-2024)
Did they give specific data? Because this sounds rather hand wavy to me. Most of these places like Croma have other bank personnel too, not just IDFC First. So they should have as many complaints too right?
Som Distilleries and Breweries (08-04-2024)
Commercial production of the increased capacity at their Karnataka plant has begun.
140 lakh cases from the previous 90 lakh cases.