Posts tagged Value Pickr
Goodluck India Ltd (18-03-2024)
Rough estimate for the FY26 revenue based on Q3Fy24 concall:
- Revenue guidance FY24: 3500+, FY25 : 4k+ ,FY 26: 4500+(w/o defense biz) .
- Margins expected to increase in FY26 w/o defense & further with defense biz.
- Defense biz to contribute 10% revenue by FY26.
- Assumption: If margin increases by 3% (inclusive of defense margins where margins can be upward of 20%+), then FY26 eps becomes 122, p/e – 6.86.
For more detailed on the company, one can refer below: https://x.com/SULABH40/status/1709525325233918376?s=20
Disclaimer: invested, biased.
SG Finserve Ltd – Does it has a scalable business? (18-03-2024)
Having anchor companies / early adopters doesn’t in itself seem to be a moat. It may give them a head-start in building and testing their business model but what will prevent any other entrant to offer the same service better to the same anchor companies?
I am unable to figure out what could be their actual moat –
- Technology but with a finite set of data points to analyze and monitor, is it really that difficult to replicate this?
- Network effect but I am unable to see how are they ensuring stickiness and preventing switching?
- Early starter as they don’t seem to be the first starter, there are others also who are into this supply-chain financing space.
So I am still confused as to what exactly is their moat. They are definitely filling a structural void and do seem to be doing well as yet but what will ensure that they can really continue to do well consistently?
In the absence of concalls, a lot of questions remain unanswered. Anyone having crucial insights about this sector and this company’s modus operandi that may be lending them a true moat, please do share herein.
Is Buy and Forget a Myth? (18-03-2024)
Dear @Amit_Paul , thanks for good words, i will add word that “i was lucky”.
Approach is totally changed now after last crash, positions in core are untouched as long term growth outlook is excellent. Only selective bets where turnaround is visible or trading at below intrinsic value. Current momentum is changed now and doesn’t look to regain old highs, we will see time correction wherever euphoria is buit up. Wait & watch is right strategy with concentrated bets in your high conviction stocks.
Just doing tax loss harvesting and removing weeds.
Paul merchant ltd a microcap gold loan company (18-03-2024)
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IDFC First Bank Limited (18-03-2024)
I Think it is 20-25% YOY
CSB BANK – will it become next HDFC Bank? (18-03-2024)
Fairfax is ready for an “all-cash” deal to acquire IDBI Bank.
Marksans Pharma- Can it be the next Pharma Biggie? (18-03-2024)
Even though there are basic generic medicine advantage is demand for such products are stable( except something like covid happens) and generally people will buy the same brand of OTC medicine once they found it effective.
In addition to points well mentioned by @Jose it seems that price erosion in OTC products seems to be less than prescription based drugs. Source:Q2FY22 concall:
Marksman’s seems to have understood it early and scaled up OTC revenue over the years to 75% of revenue.
Discl: invested
Data Patterns (India) Limited (18-03-2024)
Disc: Invested
Some old news…
Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC bought a 6.3% stake for ₹650 crore, while Mirae Asset Mutual Fund acquired about a 2% stake for ₹201 crore. Similarly, Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund purchased shares worth ₹100 crore, and HDFC Mutual Fund bought ₹25 crore worth of shares.