Thanks @ca.rishab, for all the suggestions, I’ll make sure to go through them. Currently looking macroeconomic situations, I’ll be a low risk investor for next 2 years, would keep myself to low risk sectors, I’ll start reducing exposure to finance following the FED and RBI rate cuts, expecting them by end of Q2(Just my thing!). But would surely look into your recent investment and whenever valuations comfort me, would take positions. Cheers!
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Tracxn Technologies (12-03-2024)
I see the holding percentage of the co founders are decreasing on quarter on quarter basis what can be the reason for the same
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (12-03-2024)
Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate. I’m asking what I ask below out of genuine curiosity because there may be some lesson in how we calibrate and recalibrate expectations here.
Your expectation at the beginning of the year was to close with ~20% returns. Say, you started at 100. That would mean an expected 120 at year close. Today, you are up ~13% i.e. at 113. Since your portfolio today is ~10% below top, the top would have been 125+.
Which means you had crossed your return expectation for the full year in Q1 itself.
This is something all of us face (in lucky years!). Question is:
- Did you recalibrate expectations (say, when your portfolio hit the equivalent of our 125 here, did you raise expectations for the year, to, say end at 140?) After all, the market can always swing a long way when it is in momentum!
- Did you try to get into cash? Because such pace of returns (and let’s face it, rich valuations) suggested that the market was moving ahead of fundamentals…
Essentially, did you recalibrate expectations upwards, or did you de-risk? Since you examine your thoughts, it may help illustrate something for us.
Rushil Decor – Real Estate revival + MDF Adoption Play (12-03-2024)
FY-24 IS subdued here.
Both in terms of opm, topline and bottomline?
Has the company run out of steam for growth or its just a pause and capacity utilisation is going to kickin.
Promoters have slightly increased stake over last few qtrs.
Dhruv’s Portfolio: Comments Appriciated (12-03-2024)
Financial heavy portfolio.
What’s your investment goals/expectations?
Also I would love to see your thought process behind investing/holding each of these stocks.
Wondering, why would you have 3 different paint companies in a consumer bucket?
Note that the markets are at all time highs. Froth has built up in mid, small, micro stocks. Expect huge volatility heading into elections. IMO, it is not the best time to buy. I think more pain is ahead for mid, small, and SME stocks.
Better to take profits off the table and sit on cash for now. Stick to leaders that to only fundamentally sound stocks.
The SME portfolio (12-03-2024)
Curious – what drives these type of fall in each and every small cap stock?
A few of them is reasonable as fund houses controlling the inflows due to regulatory norms.
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (12-03-2024)
The acquisition seems to have significant strategic merit in favor of PhantomFX:
- Reputation: Tippett Studios carries a legendary reputation, particularly with Phil Tippett’s iconic contributions to stop-motion and CGI.
- Market Positioning: PhantomFX can position itself as more than just a technical support provider. Tippett Studios’ creative expertise and vision can help PhantomFX establish itself as a creative force on the international stage, potentially changing the perception of Indian VFX studios in the global market.
- Client Base: Access to Tippett Studios’ client base opens up new opportunities for PhantomFX to work on prestigious projects and build relationships with major players in the industry.
However, PhantomFX does not match Tippett Studios’ reputation and the acquisition seems somewhat undervalued [1]. So, why did Tippett Studios agree to this acquisition? Do they expect major downturn in the industry and want an exit strategy?
[1] Valuation Note. PhantomFX expects 20-25% of their FY25 annual revenue growth to come from Tippett Studios. They are expecting a growth from ₹90-95cr in FY24 to ₹130-140cr in FY25, which puts the revenue expectation from Tippett Studios at ₹8cr, approx. $1m. They have 80% share, hence Tippett Studio annual revenue is estimated around $1.25m and the company is valued at $4.375m. Assuming 20% profit margin, PhantomFX paid a FY25 P/E of 17.5.
NetWeb Technologies (Supercomputing?) (12-03-2024)
My understanding is like this.
Intel x86 & AMD are the 2 leading CPU architectures used in server market covering 99% of the market. Source : Intel/AMD x86 computer CPU market share 2024 | Statista.
Typically, the server makers (like Dell/Lenovo/Hp etc…) work very closely with CPU makers like Intel/AMD on these server release every time there is a newer version of the CPU under work. Typical server launch cycle can be anywhere like 1-2 year. During this period, the CPU and server building company work very closely with each other. Server maker has access to the reference design of CPU and motherboard from the CPU player. One can easily appreciate the importance of confidentiality clauses when this happens.
Till now, nVIDIA was a major GPU player and both Intel/AMD server designs supported their GPUs. In fact, there isn’t much to do in a server to support GPU. It’s a plug and play kind of design to support most GPUs. At max the work needed from the server team is on GPUs thermal management (cooling the GPU by ramping the fan etc) side. That also is not always true as many GPUs are now coming with their own thermal management.
Now, this is where things get complicated, with nVIDIA showing ambition of it’s own CPU based on ARM architecture launched in 2023 Source : NVIDIA Introduces Grace CPU Superchip | NVIDIA Newsroom
This is a direct attack on the bread and butter of Intel/AMD server business.
It’s understandable NVIDIA need partners who can make servers for their CPUs. From what i understand and can see on plain google search usual server makers like Lenovo/Dell/Hp are not supporting the nVIDIA Grace CPUs as of today.
This is where Netweb has entered into picture by becoming partner for manufacturing of servers based on the Grace and GraceHopper CPUs.
Trying to bust some myths as per my understanding:
-
Server design and manufacturing is a very complex process –
Not that great deal IMHO. Server design process starts at CPU makers (Intel/AMD). They share a reference architecture of the server with server manufacturers (Hp/Dell/Lenovo…). What the server manufacturer does is make different design of servers with diff. configs like 1U/2U/blade/multiple processor support/etc etc. One can liken the server mfg’s process to a laptop manufacturer who uses same Intel processor and gives multiple options in laptop with diff. capabilities like storage/display/etc etc…
The design capabilities required for a server maker are not R&D level, it’s more a implementation level with active guidance from CPU manufacturer at each step.
Once design is ready. Most server makers outsource the actual manufacturing to the OEMS like Foxconn/Gigabyte/Wistron etc etc…OEMs manufacture the server motherboards/boxes etc. Parts like Harddisk/GPU/RAM/wires, as we all know have diff. reputed manufacturers and all this is assembled by OEM and they put the sticker of vendor like (HP/Dell).
Server makers capability lies in customer management/sales/support/ etc… -
How did they develop all the Super Computers listed in their deck…
At a very simplistic level, a super computer is not one huge complicated computer (if you are thinking of it like that). It’s just thousands (or tens of thousands) of servers networked with each other where a software layers has the capability of pooling these compute resource to tackle a problem needing such high compute power. Huge numbers of server networked with each other , mostly in a single premise. Does it sound that intimidating anymore ?
Hope this part is answered. Others are manufacturing servers which supports nVIDIA GPUs. Just like Netweb also does with their Intel x86 based servers support nVIDIA GPUs. Netweb is not going to manufacture NVIDIA Grace (Hopper) Superchip CPUs. They will likely manufacture the server to support those CPUs. But we have to keep in mind, as on today the market share of NVIDIA CPU in server market is close to ZERO. It’s a good thing or bad thing, time will tell. CPU/GPU manufacturing is still in the capability of exclusive club with the likes of TSMC/Samsung. No Indian company has come anywhere close to such capabilities as of today. We may, in future!!
Iris Business Services – Emerging SAAS Microcap (12-03-2024)
As I had mentioned, sharing my analysis and thesis for IRIS here:
Copy of IRIS Business Services.pdf (675.2 KB)
Please share any feedback or questions that you might have. It gets tough tracking a company that only does half yearly concalls
Iris Business Services – Emerging SAAS Microcap (12-03-2024)
Basically “Create” primarily includes IRIS Carbon which is their core SaaS offering which works on a subscription model meaning clients pay on a periodic basis.
I might have been wrong here as I think this actually should be looked at from a QoQ basis considering the recurring nature of revenue. Ideally, this segment should be driving growth and not just the collect segment where there’s limited addressable market (by my rough estimates, company already holds >20% of world’s XBRL market share amongst regulatory bodies).
From their Nov con-call: Recurring revenue declined to 64% from 79% in FY24 H1 (on track for 54 Cr in FY-24) because of Collect implementation which has a one-time implementation fee. It should hover around 75%
If you compare it to the global leading player like Workiva, there’s still a ways to go considering Workiva’s subscription revenue is ~88% and gross dollar retention is ~98%