Globally I think the markets are realizing the longevity of growth & terminal value that exists in these business on the back of their IP.

Monetization of music IP will only expand over the years, short format monetization has just started in the global markets and changes within streaming players wherein only streams over a certain count will be counted for monetization are some of the recent steps that further improves the monetization for these players.

In India music labels are even better placed as they have both master recording & publishing rights, plus some players like Tips have entire IP with no royalty and thus margins are higher. The growth is obviously top notch for Tips as it has gone from inefficient player to a decent player.

(Disclosure: SEBI Registered RA. Invested and Active recommendation in Research Service)

Further to your observations Mathew10, Asian is advertising on TV at a very high decibel clearly demonstrating the increasing competitive intensity in the industry. The loss of B2B (Udaan and Ajio) has cost Campus dearly. Maybe it stopped focusing on the offline distribution network after tasting success on the ECom platforms.

As a brand / product, Campus has a distinct hold in the marketplace.
The promoter has skin in the game (significant shareholding) and they lead from the front.
Promoter has created 2 hugely successful brands in the industry “Action” and then “Campus” demonstrating their ability.
Everyone jacks up the numbers for IPO… we all have seen it time and again… they also seem to have done the same…
As the industry turns and its stock price falls (200 odd levels may happen) the investment case for Campus should again become strong

invested…

Sorry. I have no idea about the said target company and purported hostile Takeover bid.

Posting the Q3 Concall Notes –

1. EBITDA Margins stood at 19.5% and PAT margins at 10%
2. Increase in volume @ 21% YoY and 5% for Nine months (Signaling Demand recovery)
3. Dahej Plant’s Trail run has began and since the EBITDA margins of the products from new plant is 20%+ new leg of margin expansion will come from here
4. Industrial segment accounted for more than 87% of the revenue out of which export accounted for 62% total revenue
5. Incorporated subsidiary in US making it area for future growth
6. Downward revision in the guidence of total plant capacity → Pakhajan can do 550 to 600 crores of revenue and Vapi can do 650 Crores (earlier guided for 700 to 750) at optimum utilisation (90%)
   this downward revision is just on account of correction in RM prices
7. The prices of RM are correcting i.e. Inching Upward, but not at the speed it dropped
8. The company is seeing spark already but too early to comment weather this will be fire or fizzle down
9. current capacity is utilization 85%
10. Will complete trial, will take govt approvals and then only can start taking orders as client will need everything before placing orders. Will get govt certification within 4 – 8 Weeks
11. Peak EBITDA will be 120 crores from Vapi facility
12. Depreciation is on lower side as some asset have got fully depreciated
13. Peak debt will be 500 crores including WC
14. Markets will rebound overall within next 2 quarters as the demand comes back in European as well as Asian country
15. Vapi is completely saturated @18% EBITDA margins any new improvement will come from pakhajan only