Gurkha 4×4 Pre-production model
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Posts tagged Value Pickr
Investment strategy review (Long term) (30-01-2024)
My suggestion would be not to take a long term view for now, as everything could be different to now. Take a 2-3 years view, and go as per your risk appetite, and you don’t have to diversify in the asset class again, considering you are just starting and have capital constraints.
RD is debt, so pick something in equity, even hybrid funds will fall and stay there if market falls, so hybrid funds can be considered as equity just like flexi or index funds. RD will increase in value, equity will go up and down, after some time, you can change or modify these as per your understanding and requirements.
Strides Pharma Science (30-01-2024)
Q4’24 Conference call notes which I took
- Three consecutive quarter for gross margin close to 60%
- Significant improvement in free cash generation & debt reduction
- 2 Significant approvals are USFDA approved
- Revenue growth for first 9 month exceeding guidance of 15% has come at 17%
- Quarter ahead in debt reduction target
- Strategy to letting go products when challenged for price
- Other regulated markets – Won several new approvals in Europe
- Several new businesses are owned in south africa market
- Stelus revenue from 5 Cr. last year to 60 Cr. – Ebita negative during Q3.
- Stelus – Customers added on regular basis. 16 unique customers. MSA for 56 Mn dollars in first 9 months. All contracts 4 yrs. CDMO agreement
- Stelus – First commercial order received. Business for Stelus to be PAT positive from FY25.
- Corporate guarantee – is temporary and all corporate guarantees from Stride towards Stelis will be gone with listing of onesource
- 15 products to be launched per year on average. the timing will be determined by market condition and margins available. Target run-rate is 400 Mn dollars in US without margin erosion
- Getting to 21% EBITA is realistic
- Focus on launching $15-20 Mn products in US
- Biologics piece – 3-5 yrs. vision – A lot of growth going to be coming from Biologics for Stelis; Biologics component on Onesource to have ~50% EBITA margin, the rest ~30% EBITA margins.
- 750 Cr EBITA FY25 despite some EBITA going to one-source
- Expect OneSource to list in 12 months;
- Other regulated markets – Approx. $40 Mn business each quarter. Registration process will be causing delay in achieving higher revenue from ORM.
- Approx. debt reduction feasible to the extent of 300-400 Cr. each year with free cash flow.
Disc – Invested
Jubilant Ingrevia – Life Science Ingredients (LSI) (30-01-2024)
Any views on Q3FY24. Revenue and profits are down as expected.
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited: Powering Ahead (30-01-2024)
Galla, 57, is one of the richest MPs in Lok Sabha with a declared asset of around Rs 683 crore. Amara Raja is moving from being a battery manufacturer to a comprehensive provider of energy and mobility solutions. “It is with a heavy heart that I announce my decision to not contest in the upcoming 2024 general elections. I will be taking a break from politics to focus on diversifying the business which is at a crucial stage of leading the world in the transition to a more sustainable future,” said Galla, who represents Guntur in Parliament.
Bold letter represent : positive for business.
Tata elxsi (30-01-2024)
KPIT is pure automotive ERD (engineering, research design) play while Tata Elxi is an ERD play across multiple industry verticals (e.g. automotive, healthcare, media, transportation etc).
KPIT has done really well in the last couple of years due to EV tailwind in auto space while Tata Elxi financial performance in the same duration has suffered due to slow demand in some of the segments. So on a stock performance basis one may like KPIT a lot better although the valuations of the latter are now really stretched.
On a long term basis, however, I like Tata Elxi much better for the following reasons:
1- They have a highly capable management team and have come stronger over several cycles. Their transformation from generic IT service provider to specialized ERD player is quite remarkable
2- They are diversified which gives them a natural hedge against some of the verticals underperforming
3- Their operating metrics are much better than KPIT with better operating margins and cash flow generation
4- Valuations have come down from 100 to mid-50s and I believe some of their underperforming verticals may have bottomed out
5- Being a Tata company always helps and is reassuring to the investors from corporate governance and longevity point of view
Rain Industries – An oversold de-leveraging play (30-01-2024)
May be Pabrai want to reenter after tax loss harvesting, since in US they need to wait 30 days to do that… its my wild guess since the confidence he had on Jagan… however Pabrai has become more like a trader these days.
Disclaimer: Heavily invested and Rain makes 35% of my portfolio, but sold 25% of my rain holding at 185 today and not intended to sell further. My Buying avg now stands at 163.
Rain Industries – An oversold de-leveraging play (30-01-2024)
May be Pabrai want to reenter after tax loss harvesting, since in US they need to wait 30 days to do that… its my wild guess since the confidence he had on Jagan… however Pabrai has become more like a trader these days.
Disclaimer: Heavily invested and Rain makes 35% of my portfolio, but sold 25% of my rain holding at 185 today and not intended to sell further. My Buying avg now stands at 163.