Motilal Oswal has reduced stake in company. I wanted to know what are your opinions on this? Any views why the stock has been going sideways for a while now while rest of stocks are running?
Disc- Invested, 8% of portfolio.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Vaibhav Global ~ Vertically integrated value e-tailer of Jewellery and Lifestyle Products (09-01-2024)
How to take leverage to go long in market (~2 years)? (09-01-2024)
Nahi @LarryWink I dont want to liquidate my current portfolio. I am expecting 1 swing trading to close in 3-4 months and pay off loan
Migrating out of Zerodha (09-01-2024)
this seems to be a decent option, if you want to track the PF in one place then you can use IndMoney
Nithin’s Portfolio (09-01-2024)
BATTERY
The Inflation Reduction Act specifies that, starting in 2024, no EV that contains battery components produced by a foreign entity of concern18—defined as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—will be eligible for the credit. Beginning in 2025, the same becomes true for critical minerals used in EV batteries.
Now how did I confirm this? AMI Concall
:
Here is as per the chemistry – company wise :
- Key Ingredient – Tata Chemical (Soda Ash)
- HSCL : Lithium Ion Battery components
- Electrolyte Salts – GFL, Neogen, Tatva Chintan
- Electrolyte Additive – AMI Organics, Aether Industries
- Solvent/Catalysis Profile : Tatva Chintan, Balaji Amines
Electrolyte Additive types
- Vinyl Carbonate (VC)
- Fluorinated Ethylene Carbonate (FEC)
- 1,3-Propanesultone (1,3-PS)
- Vinylethylene Carbonate (VEC)
- Others
Solvents
- Ethylene Carbonate (EC): It’s commonly used as a solvent for the electrolyte in lithium-ion batteries due to its high dielectric constant and ability to dissolve lithium salts.
- Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC): Often used as a co-solvent in combination with other solvents like EC due to its good solubility with lithium salts. (Balaji Amines, Tatva Chintan, Paushak)
- Diethyl Carbonate (DEC): Another solvent used in combination with EC and DMC in the electrolyte of lithium-ion batteries. (Tatva Chintan)
- Ethyl Methyl Carbonate (EMC): Similar to DEC, EMC is used as a co-solvent to improve the electrolyte’s properties.
- Propylene Carbonate (PC): It’s also a common solvent used in lithium-ion battery electrolytes due to its high dielectric constant and ability to dissolve lithium salts. (Balaji Amines)
- Gamma-Butyrolactone (GBL): This solvent can be used in sodium-ion battery electrolytes due to its ability to dissolve sodium salts and improve ionic conductivity.
- 1,2-Dimethoxyethane (DME): It’s another solvent occasionally used in sodium-ion battery electrolytes to enhance the performance of the system.
- Sulfolane: This high boiling point solvent is sometimes used in sodium-ion battery electrolytes due to its good stability and compatibility with sodium salts.
- Monoglyme is one of those solvents used as a mix combination with dimethyl carbonate or other solvents to dissolve the electrolyte salts. So, this becomes the
part of the electrolyte solution within the Lithium battery (Tatva Chintan)
Now Electrolyte Additive can be used either in Sodium Ion or in Lithium Ion Profiles.
The real threat is to the Electrolyte salts as in case if market changes to go for Sodium Ion:
Here are their common variances :
- Sodium-ion batteries might use sodium salts like sodium hexafluorophosphate (NaPF6), sodium chloride (NaCl), sodium perchlorate (NaClO4), or other sodium-based compounds.
- Lithium-ion batteries commonly use lithium salts such as lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), lithium carbonate (Li2CO3), lithium perchlorate (LiClO4), and lithium tetrafluoroborate (LiBF4).
Lithium – We do know that companies like Neogen, GFL, Reliance are making a mark.
For Sodium ion – only 4-5 companies have developed this product and has patent.
- Faradian (Acquired by Reliance)
- BYD (China)
- KPIT (India)
- CATL : Cherry Auto (Chinese)
Coming to the profile of Sodium vs Lithium comparative difference
Credits : Lithium-ion vs. Sodium-ion Batteries: Sustainable Energy Options for the Future
Since i spoken about batteries why not Super capacitors than only the battery side we are looking into?
Lithium Ion
- Relies on Chemistry reactions
- Consist of Anode and Cathode
How it works : These two sides are submerged in a liquid electrolyte and separated by a micro-perforated separator, allowing only ions to pass through. During batteries’ charging and discharging, the ions tend to flow back-and-forth between the anode and cathode. While this ion transfer process occurs, the battery gets heated up, expands, and then contracts. These reactions gradually degrade a battery, resulting in a reduced lifespan of batteries.
Super Capacitors
- Don’t rely on Chemical Reactions
- They store potential energy electrostatically within them
Supercapacitors use dielectric or insulator between their plates to separate the collection of positive (+ve) and negative (-ve) charges building on each side’s plates. It is this separation that allows the device to store energy and quickly release it. It basically captures static electricity for future use.
Super capacitors are good for immediate burst of power.
Power Density, Energy Density vs Storage Forms
Credits : Supercapacitors – A Viable Alternative to Lithium-Ion Battery Technology? – FutureBridge .
Going forward now they are trying to collaborate Lithium + Supercapacitors = naming it Lithium Ion Capacitors
Here is the video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlON0Uj2Zk0
Coming to the Indian company profiles
Capex Plans – All of them have plans to expand based on their chemistry.
Environment Clearance
- Tatva Chintan : https://environmentclearance.nic.in/DownloadPfdFile.aspx?FileName=fgftrmkwVeXyTcQelv2gWFJL3QzFq5qLxOqYwfPDYCdMNPl6td6l3jIDNGgvnquPj6Tkbklk7Qu3XpwsBEeRVW374LqDQYtnIDU3EB6tyQq3C2hsR8Nh4wR4YO00qXR4ep/9bER2jqKROPPHJ2GdYZjuLMN6VT7NAyqLyRP4eU0WaRkDA8Vp5qmlPa7uSY67&FilePath=93ZZBm8LWEXfg+HAlQix2fE2t8z/pgnoBhDlYdZCxzUlDadBGu7t8v4JoQvNU6UBlSmL0YQ7WQYaxkvlQvexKQ==
- Balaji Amines : https://environmentclearance.nic.in/writereaddata/Online/TOR/0_0_13_Jul_2015_190624310RT2EHBriefSummary.pdf
Nithin’s Portfolio (09-01-2024)
Objectives
- Largest animal health company from India and amongst the top 25 in the world
- Presence across nearly 100 countries in regulated and less regulated markets
- 2/3rd of our revenue comes from regulated markets
- Only company in India to have set up a U.S. FDA-approved greenfield veterinary API facility.
- Commercialization of new products as part of our long-term contract with a leading animal health player in the world
- in the top 5, in fact, now in the top 3 of the ruminant cattle animal health business
- Aiming to grow in double digits
- Planning on hitting double-digit margins for the company by the exit of this year
Key Points
Spain
- Has both manufacturing as well as distribution
- It’s also one of the largest animal health markets in Europe
- Planning to launch new products in Spain, in the area of ruminant animals which is Production Animals.
Belgium
- Distributing more Companion Animal products in the area of pet care.
Netherlands
- Distributing more Companion Animal products in the area of pet care.
Scandinavia, Sweden
- Distributing more Companion Animal products in the area of pet care.
Germany :
- Planned to close the injectables plant factory, is a formulation unit.
- Buy APIs from other suppliers in Germany
Turkey
- Turkey is one of the leading markets in the world for animal health and our company has a strong presence there
- Turkey is a very important animal health market. It is in the top 10 markets of the world
- Turkey also injectables and has Europe GMP-certified facility
- Turkey also has manufacturing facility
- Actions taken on currency devaluation and Macro risk :
- Taken price increases to take advantage of opportunity to counter the inflation.
- Started looking at the basic operating and cost structure to ensure that they are efficient in such a volatile environment
- Opportunity to use Turkey as a base for exports, which also hedges in terms of foreign exchange and at the same time
Mahad Maharastra :
- Non USFDA plant
- Largely makes albendazole
- WHO Geneva pre-approval inspection underwent
Visakhapatnam | Vizag
- USFDA Plant
- Vishakhapatnam facility underwent a US FDA inspection at the end of which we had one procedural observation and a response to which has been shared
Brazil
- Brazil is one of the world’s, and the top 5 market as far as animal health is concerned
- Planning to Grow in double digits, partly because they had made entry into companion animals last year -they had acquired a small company to sort of make the entry into companion animals
Tarapur :
- Discontinuation of API manufacturing operations in Tarapur.
Tineta business : Didn’t went through
Nourrie Business : Brazil – Dont know how this is spanning
API Business : 70% of business in the API comes from the regulated markets.
Company mentions Scale of operations and the volume increases on API will get them to cost advantage even in places where they may not be able to pass on the price.
Turkey Issue with LIRA devaluation :
- Management is seeing growth in the business constantly, and that reflects really ability to grow both volume as well as pass on price increases linked to that.
- As far as the depreciation of the lira is concerned, the only place that can potentially help us is if we increase our exports out of Turkey.
- That is an effort which is going on, we are slowly increasing our exports out of Turkey. But that’s really not substantial enough to say that it will, it’s going to make a big impact on the results. But right now, the thing is, yes, because we manufacture locally in Turkey, it helps us to be competitive.
Products
- Total products in pipeline are close to 8 products and then eventually 12 for which they are developing the necessary dossiers
- Launched range of formulations for gut health of animal in Europe
- Filed for new products with 8 new filings this year and we have started the commercialization of new products as part of their long-term contract with a leading animal health player in the world.
- On course to build a strong portfolio in gut health products as planning to expand these launches to other markets outside of Europe.
- Launching new products in Injectables for Ruminant animals later in this year.
- Medicines for Production animals
- Production animals business has been impacted by high feed costs due to issues relating to war and other farm-related issues. . This, in turn, has impacted the demand for nutritional additives and medicines.
- Medicines for companion animals
- The demand for medicines for companion animals remains intact and is growing as pet adoption, incidence of diseases and lifetime of pets increases.
- Filings : 30 USVMFs and 17 CEP filing
- They have commercialized a new product with one of the top animal health companies. But this will really fructify into a formal business more after one year or two years : At this point of time, it has been commercialized, validated, NBF being approved, and management thinks that this will also turn out to be a bigger opportunity for them going ahead, the further products are also under development.
- Three to four projects which are in the pipeline for the next year
Challenge
- Specific challenge in Turkey due to the high inflation and devaluation of the currency which had impacted results this quarter. However, they had already initiated strong pricing actions as well as cost containment measures, which will result in margin improvement from the fourth quarter.
- Also Europe inflation and pricing challenge.
Management steps ahead
Project Pragati : Management said that they are in the mid stage so somewhere between 2-3rd point.
- First is really around the improvement of yields and efficiencies around some of our products : which make the cost of manufacturing lower and also make these products more competitive.
- The second part of Project Pragati involves the overall cost structure of the operation in terms of the manufacturing footprint, etc
- The third is in the area of procurement.
- The fourth is relating to consumables, raw materials, utilities, etc
- The fifth course making sure that they are driving the higher-margin pipeline in this
Turkey
Turkey wage increased by 49%
On the positive side if the company can export the products – there is a positive sign however since the company mentions that Turkey is its biggest market – due to current levels of the inflation – it would be difficult.
Credits :
Turkey’s aggressive rate hikes so far won’t be enough to cut inflation to…
Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc University, says “our starting point was a very overheated economy.”
Turkey Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in Turkey increased to 64.77 percent in December from 61.98 percent in November of 2023. This page provides the latest reported value for – Turkey Inflation Rate – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast…
- They had stopped acquisition, which is good as now they can focus on what they have.
- CMO projects will commercialize starting from this year
- API is currently driving their margins now – slowly CMO will add in
- I don’t know about the product sale of B2C side.- which in this inflationary scenario how it will do well : I don’t know, as the feed stock prices are elevated.
- Management is now focusing on Manufacturing, improvising molecule efficiency, CMO
TVS Supply Chain Solutions (09-01-2024)
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How to take leverage to go long in market (~2 years)? (09-01-2024)
Option 1
Open Loan Against Shares (LAS) account with any bank. Interest rates in range of 9-10%. You get
50-60% of the value depending on the stock. So for 20L you will need to pledge Shares worth 40L with the bank. Max allowed is 20L account with banks as per RBI Regulation. Not more than 1 LAS account is allowed by RBI. NBFC can open LAS account upto 5Cr, interest in range of 10-12%.
Option2
Open Margin Trading Funding account (MTF) with any broker, Interest rates in range of 10-16%. Pledge stocks with the broker & buy stocks on leverage.
In both cases interest will be charged only for number of days you use the funds.
How to take leverage to go long in market (~2 years)? (09-01-2024)
Jitubhai…Utval na karo…dont be in hurry !
To me,its like train is moving quickly, if u’ve contempleted something and if its not FOMO!
You might already have few thoughts on the idea itself. For example your return expectations from future long ?
Skipper Ltd., (Power and Water) a moat in making? (09-01-2024)
Good commentary.
Is the rights issue applied directly via the broker app?