Posts tagged Value Pickr
SYMPHONY – A Comfort to hold for Long term? (31-12-2023)
Notes from some recent calls.
09.12.2022 CNBC interview
- Targeting ambitious sales growth in H2FY23. Medium term goal is to grow sales at 20%
- Raw material prices have come down but are higher vs last year. Price hikes have been between 5-14% depending on models in last 6-months
- Should reach normal EBITDA margins by June 2023
- Witnessing pressure from USA, orders have been cut and this will get reflected in December and March quarters
07.06.2023 CNBC
25.12.2023 BQ
- FY25 promises to be much better, business is at trough right now and will only get better
- Australia fund infusion of 82 cr. is to largely repay debt
- Australian real estate business is improving which should positively impact Symphony, this is similar to transformation in Mexican operations after 2008 GFC crisis
Disclosure: Not invested (no transactions in last-30 days)
The harsh portfolio! (31-12-2023)
Returns have not been very concentrated, its not like 3 stocks account for 50% of returns. ITC has been the biggest contributor so far, accounting for 6% returns, and you can see how the distribution looks like below.
Another way to look at it is what % of my folio returns is accounted by #1-5 stocks, #6-10, and so on.
| Stock ranks | % returns |
|---|---|
| # 1-5 | 24.20% |
| # 6-10 | 16.95% |
| # 11-20 | 25.24% |
Some more statistics to chew upon:
Total stocks invested in: 89
Stocks in losses: 16
Cumulative losses from these 16 stocks has been 6.65%, ITC alone has contributed to 6% returns. So almost all losses have been struck off by ITC.
The hit ratio of 82% is abnormally high because we are in the middle of a bull market. I hope I can maintain this ratio over 65% over a period of time.
I hope the above statistic answers your question.
I only started tracking performance of deep value from August 2021. Before that, I used to make token investments as I wanted to get comfortable with the idea. Since 2021, this part of portfolio has generated IRRs of 75%. Its highly highly unlikely that future returns will look like this as I scale up this segment, but I do plan to scale it up.
I have 100s of concerns about Ashok Leyland, but scaling up is not one. Its 2nd largest CV manufacturer in India with a very wide distribution network. EV scaleup is just a matter of time.
RACL Geartech Limited (30-12-2023)
Thanks Vivek, I got some idea, will go through Pat dorsey page.
Best Agrolife – Think Big, Think Best! (30-12-2023)
Yes you are right at this point.
I also have gained confidence after reading latest concall about improving the financial in next 6 months or in a year.
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)- Bet on Financialization? (30-12-2023)
Relooking at some of the key statistics from BSE for the quarter ended December 2023:
Derivatives:
The numbers are growing at a brisk pace irrespective of significant change to charges from 1st of November. Market participants apatite for trading in Sensex and Bankex derivatives are growing week after week. While the tired pricing structure makes it difficult to arrive at the expected revenue for the quarter, my rough estimate of revenue from this segment is that it should exceed Rs. 15 Crore for the quarter (assuming average realization per crore of delivery trade to be Rs. 1500).
Star Mutual Fund:
The subscription orders grew by about 14% as compared to Q2 2023 and by 62% compared to same quarter PY. The revenue from this segment will grow in line with volume.
Cash segment:
The segment seems to have got a rub-off from the robust growth in derivatives resulting in a 6% growth in number of trades as compared to Q2 2023. The revenue growth should be robust.
IPO Market:
The number of new companies listed on BSE during the quarter broadly remained same as last quarter and accordingly the revenue from the segment should be stable when compared to Q2 of this FY.
Other observations:
- Buyback that was announced during the previous quarter failed due to lack of participation on account of sudden spike in share price during the current quarter.
- Commodity and Currency markets are not really showing any real momentum.
Overall I expect the results for the current quarter to be the best one from the time BSE got listed. Let’s wait for fine prints and management commentary once the results are published.
AJ
Disclaimer: Remain invested. Views are biased.
ENHANCED SURVEILLANCE MEASURE (ESM): Are you stuck in ESM STAGE II stocks? (30-12-2023)
This is my first post on ValuePickr. Instead of a normal post like talking about my portfolio, I thought it would be useful to discuss ESM.
I have invested in some stocks that have been selected for ESM stage II. 
For people who don’t know about ESM Stage II, you can read more about it at ESM.
The problem is once a stock enters ESM Stage II or Stage III I feel the amount of manipulation increases as trades are collected and in the case of Stage II, only 6 times prices are matched in a day.
This is quite unfair to people who bought before the framework was even introduced.
Do you see any merit in ESM Stage II and Stage III periodic auction trading?
Coastal Corp. ~2.5x capacity exp. 4x profits? Downcycle a risk (30-12-2023)
Agreed, I feel the ethanol plant is not valued at current price.
disc: recently invested, biased
Polycab India ~ Connection Zindagi Ka – W&C, FMEG and EPC Player (30-12-2023)
does is good time to enter in polycab according to current valuation.
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (30-12-2023)
@barathmukhi/@phreakv6,
I track my portfolio after customizing this Google sheet here from investmentmoats.
- Stock quotes are received near real-time using Googlefinance function.
- One enters trades and stock position/portfolio value is automatically calculated.
- Portfolio can also automatically track historical values including money invested, cost sunk, (un)realized gain/loss etc.,
- Google sheets has a history feature where one can traverse back in time to check a version – so it’s easy to simply go back 1 year and check corresponding portfolio including stocks and respective values today.
p.s: will delete in 1-2 days as my message doesn’t add value to main topic.