It’s amazing how Ben Evans’s year-end presentations are always insightful.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-12-2023)
@ranvir What will be the impact of RBI’s yesterday’s AIF decision on IIFL’s business?
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-12-2023)
ORCHID PHARMA –
Company overview and Q2 FY 24 updates –
Company manufactures widest range of Oral and Sterile Cephalosporins APIs with a product portfolio of > 35 products spread across 6 generations of Cephalosporins
Company is the inventor of Enmetazobactum – likely to start sales in China, US, Europe in FY 25. This molecule is out licensed to Allecra Therapeutics and Orchid is entitled to receive royalties on its sale
Orchid Pharma was acquired by Dhanuka group in FY 22
Cephalosporins form about 30 pc of anti-biotic mkts. Other families of antibiotics include – Penicillin, Macrolides, Carbapenems, Fluoroquinolones
Manufacturing blocks –
Sterile APIs – 6 Blocks ( 05 crystalline and 01 Lyophilised blocks )
Oral APIs – 07 blocks
Intermediates – 05 blocks
Have approvals from – USFDA, PMDA, EUGMP
Company exports directly/indirectly to over 60 countries
Company’s strengths –
Complex chemistry of Cephalosporins
Sterile manufacturing requirements
Cross – Contamination is a big problem and acts as a natural entry barrier
High upfront capex
Low cost of operations
Company’s long term debt has come down from 427 cr to Nil post the takeover in 2021
Q2 highlights –
Sales – 199 vs 165 cr
EBITDA – 31 vs 20 cr
PAT – 20 vs (-) 5 cr
Company working very hard on cost optimisations and reducing wasteful expenses to engineer a turnaround
Company is setting up a plant for manufacturing of an important KSM –
7-ACA used for synthesis of most Cephalosporins. Earlier, it was being imported from China. Company shall receive PLI benefits for manufacturing this product
Also setting up a front end for sale of formulations directly to hospital chains, large standalone hospitals. To launch this business in Q1 – FY 25
Orchid has been selected (a big deal) as the contract manufacturer of a patented molecule – Cefiderocol, patented by Shionogi – Japan – for its sale into LMIC countries (135 of them ). Technology for this product shall be directly transferred by Shionogi to Orchid
It’s a completely new antibiotic – works well against resistant bacterial infections. Likely to save many lives
Cefiderocol – FDF plant would require an investment of Rs 80 odd cr. Expected launch in second half of FY 26
For next 3 yrs, expect revenue growth in the range of 20-25 pc CAGR !!!
Regulated vs Emerging mkt sales breakup for Orchid Pharma @ 40:60. Likely to continue in future too
Oral:Sterile revenue split @ 66:34
Revenue from US currently is negligible. Aim to scale it up meaningfully in the future
Company’s capex to set up a new Sterile manufacturing block is now complete. Not yet inspected by regulated market regulators
Orchid lost a number of customers in US, EU (pre-acquisition). In the process of winning back some of them
At present, top 3 products contribute to about 75 pc of company’s sales
H2 is generally better for the company vs H1
Disc: new entry, biased, not SEBI registered
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-12-2023)
I hold Abbott India. My concern is, its sales been not upto the mark and most important is its Key people are getting replaced very frequently. CFO, Company secretary or currently its 2 CEO changed within i think 2 years…I am losing the conviction to hold it. I bought it 2 years back with intention that its a sort of Pharma FMCG type company with Consistent compounder.
IIFL Finance (erstwhile IIFL Holdings) ~ Retail focused diversified NBFC (20-12-2023)
What will be the impact of RBI’s yesterday’s AIF decision on IIFL’s business?
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (20-12-2023)
246cr operating profit . Add 78.76 cr working capital changes. Minus 27.07 cr taxes. Net Cast generated 307.9 cr
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (20-12-2023)
How can CFO be greater than EBIDTA? For example, Sandhar Technologies had an operating profit of 246 cr in Mar 2023, however, the CFO was 308. Can someone explain how this is possible?
Praveg Ltd: Play on Indian Tourism Industry! (20-12-2023)
e7ef8ec4-d382-4193-b8b5-2f909dcc98dd.pdf (bseindia.com)
December 20, 2023: Praveg Limited, India’s leading eco-responsible luxury
resorts company, announced receiving the work order for Development, Operation, Maintenance and Management of at least 50 tents at Agatti Island, UT of Lakshwadeep, with a Cloak Room, Changing Room, along with commercial activities like Scuba Diving, Destination wedding, corporate functions and many
more facilities. The work order is for a period of three (3) years that could be extended up to another two (2) years.
Relaxo Footwear: a wannabe brand play (20-12-2023)
Can it be beneficial for Relaxo, Campus and other Indian players
(Footwear Industry: Imported luxury shoe brands trip on delayed BIS nod for sourcing units, ET Retail)
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd – A Swadisht FMCG investment? (20-12-2023)
Not so much a figment of imagination, they have a lot of those live already → https://www.annapurnasnacks.in/our-products
I couldn’t find them on Amazon, but was surprised to see a different Annapurna brand in a similar product line → Listing …so it seems this other Annapurna has a lot of products already listed. Whenever Annapurna Swadisht lists, it’ll have a tall task in differentiating from this other brand. This is a big red flag, as it’s going to create a lot of confusion for customers.
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While the future is ahead of them, there is a lot they need to figure out. I don’t think it’s going to be plain sailing, and I don’t think they have a clear path & plan of action, at least it hasn’t come across in any of the material I’ve read/watched.
I hope there is an underlying plan of execution for the near future.
Disc: Invested, hopeful, not biased.