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Posts tagged Value Pickr
KPI Green- Turning Sunshine Into Cashflows (07-12-2023)
Disheartening.
I wish investors would realize at least now, 140 crores for assets worth 20-25cr. Nobody else paid for this transaction apart from the investors whose share in the company was reduced overnight because the promoter could do whatever he wanted to.
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (07-12-2023)
Can someone on the forum help me understand Paytm’s payment aggregator license situation? They kept applying this year and last year, but to no avail.
What exactly is preventing them from getting their PA license, and are they in a position to again reapply for it?
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (07-12-2023)
Inox did pretty well at 350++ as on date
My next stock is Deepak Fertilizers
- 500 is a strong support and 500 was also their 2017 all time high, so big support + we have the 200 DMA at 500.
- After consolidation between 500 and 600 now 600 is turning to be a strong support, above 700 we can se big move.
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Last 2 quatres we can see horrible performance at PAT levels but I believe that the uptrend in share price would start once we see YOY PAT growth which as per me should happen from Q3 or Q4
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To explain them in short TAN is one of their most profitable segment and TAN is made from Ammonia, the company took huge debt and set up an ammonia plant to do backward integration but 2 months back ammonia price were at all time low.
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TAN prices are artificially low, there is a ban on export which got lifted recently but the permissible limit to export is still very low + there is a huge dumping going on. So complete lift on export or an anti dumping duty is a trigger. (this is just an add on positive which can happen but not major one)
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Ammonia prices have been rising and rising ammonia price = rising TAN realization. Based on Q2 ammonia price shared by the company(current might be even higher) they are saving 90cr to 110cr at EBITA level on a quarterly basis.
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TAN volumes are extremely strong plus the company took 260cr of one time impact on their inventory on fertilizer segment because of subsidy reduction by GOI.
So they had ammonia price hitting all time low 2months back, TAN realization very low, subsidy impact from fertilizer segment, incremental depreciation from new ammonia plan started last quarter + incremental interest cost + interests rate pretty high + they also took a one time loss of 80cr in Q2 for plant stabilization (Everything has gone wrong for them in last few quarters)
Despite this they are showing strong support and I see lot of triggers going forward. My detailed post on them is here Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals – #252 by manhar
H2 I am expecting things to improve drastically especially from Q4 onwards, I see 50% to 70% upside in next 5 to 6 months conservatively
Disc- invested, avg 650, can be wrong and will exit if things go wrong
Real Estate (cycle) – Will pessimism give birth to multibaggers! (07-12-2023)
The industry’s inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com–pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period. This is in contrast to H1FY23, when net sales rose by 24.2 per cent Y-o-Y, while the inventory level increased by just 8.2 per cent Y-o-Y.
As a result, the combined inventory of top listed companies reached a record high of Rs 1.045 trillion, equivalent to 33 months of sales at the current pace
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (07-12-2023)
I don’t think quoting a 2019 article would benefit. Rapid advancements have been made post that. The points you mentioned are exactly what generative AI is capable of doing.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (07-12-2023)
it is time to look at fundamentals…
sugar companies were anyway going to use C Heavy route this year as sugar is more profitable… this notification has no impact as sugar shortage will continue. the story has changed from ethanol to sugar… sugar prices will remain above 40 this year and 42 next year.
companies with higher sugar production will do very well. EID Parry, DBOL – they have less than 20% from ethanol.
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (07-12-2023)
You can create your watchlist on screener of your portfolio stocks. There you can see all your stocks PE at one place as a column.
Dynemic Products (07-12-2023)
I have done a comparison between vidhi and dynemic, and find dynemic cheaper to Vidhi:
| P/B | P/S | Capacity- Food Colouring | Dye intermediates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynemic Product | 1.77 | 1.23 | 6120 | 16500 |
| Vidhi Speciality | 8.13 | 6.46 | 8100 | – |
Dynemic is going to use half of dye intermediates for captive consumption. Vidhi seems to be costly comparative to Dynemic but execution wise vidhi has done well last few years before that both companies were equally placed. It is possible that costly become costlier and cheap becomes cheaper.
Disclosure: Invested in Dynemic around 275, no sell, buy recomendation