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Posts tagged Value Pickr
Ujjawal Portfolio Updated (Betting on Long Term Compounding) (25-11-2023)
Updated Portfolio
Hey Friends,
Since I began investing in 2018, the stock market has been on a roller coaster. By trying so many things in my small investment journey, I have identified the following stocks for long-term wealth generation. I have been regularly reading threads on ValuePickr for the past five months or so; however, this is my second post here.
Age: 30 years
Currently employed by PSU firms.
Qualification: B.Tech. From IIT BHU, Varanasi
- IDFCFIRSTB; Holding: 7.07%; Industry: BFSI; Theme: Financialization
- BAJFINANCE; Holding: 6.9%; Industry: BFSI; Theme: Financialization
- DIVISLAB; Holding: 6.3%; Industry: Pharma; Theme: China +1
- DEEPAKNI; Holding: 5.9%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: China +1
- CDSL; Holding: 5.27%; Industry: Depository; Theme: Financialization
- LAURUSLABS; Holding: 5.22%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: China +1
- TATACONSUM; Holding: 5.15%; Industry: FMCG; Theme: Consumption
- SAREGAMA; Holding: 5.14%; Industry: Streaming ; Theme: Digitalization
- ETHOSLTD; Holding: 4.71%; Industry: Retail ; Theme: Premiumisation
- LTIM; Holding: 4.6%; Industry: IT ; Theme: Long Term bet on IT Services
- TITAN; Holding: 4.52%; Industry: Retail ; Theme: Premiumisation
- VBL; Holding: 4.32%; Industry: FMCG; Theme: Consumption
- ASTRAL; Holding: 4.04%; Industry: Building Material ; Theme: Industrial/Real Estate Capex
- MOLDTKPAC; Holding: 3.93%; Industry: Packaging ; Theme: Paint, FMCG and Pharma
- FLUOROCHEM; Holding: 3.55%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: EV/ Energy/ China+1
- LTTS; Holding: 3.44%; Industry: IT ; Theme: ER&D
- EQUITASBNK; Holding: 3.24%; Industry: BFSI; Theme: Financialization
- ALKYLAMINE; Holding: 3.13%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: China +1
- RAJRATAN; Holding: 3.1%; Industry: Auto Ancillary; Theme: Auto theme
- PIIND; Holding: 3.05%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: China +1/ Agro Chemical Export
- SHBCLQ; Holding: 3.04%; Industry: Consumer Durables ; Theme: EV/Smart Meters
- GOKEX; Holding: 2.53%; Industry: Textile ; Theme: Export Oppourtunities
- CLEAN; Holding: 1.86%; Industry: Chemical ; Theme: China +1
Tracking:
KEI Industries, Polycab, Techknowgreen, KPI Green, Praj, Pricol, KPIT Tech, Tata Elxsi and Trent
I will maintain the number of stocks in my portfolio between 20 and 25.
I maintain 90% of the equity in my portfolio. (50% in stocks and 40% in mutual funds).
Rest 10%, I maintained in debt in PPF, Liquid funds & cash ( Liquid fund & cash sufficient to cater my emergency corpus).
I maintain an emergency fund (equivalent to six months’ worth of expenses) inclusive of cash allocation, which is less than 2% of my portfolio.
For retirement corpus, relying on EPF and NPS.
My MF investment is goal-linked, and I invest in stocks for long-term wealth generation. All future goals will be covered by the SIP in MF. I started these SIPs in 2017 (at 24 years of age). I also keep increasing the SIP amount by 10% every year as per the increase in income.
XIRR till date in MF is 19%.
Inviting views from fellow Valuepickrs. Awaiting your valuable feedback and suggestions.
Fino payments Bank – Can the unique business model spring a surprise? (25-11-2023)
From the recent concall of Q2 FY24, the management guided for 20% revenue growth and 50% profit growth rate for next 3 years. I feel that the delta is justified considering the growth would mainly come from my margins businesses i.e. CASA and CMS. Of course there is operating leverage which plays big part.
Like any business high growth rates and (consistent or improving) high ROE is the recipe for return of a stock. I have short calculation of how the ROE may evolve over the years. My calcualtion here
| ROE | calculation | with | 40% | Profit | growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY | Fy22 | Fy23 | Fy24 | FY25 | FY26 |
| PAT | 65 | 91 | 127 | 178 | |
| Equity | 480 | 552 | 643 | 770 | 949 |
| Notes: |
- I’ve considered PAT growth of 40% against management guidance of 50%
- ROE = PAT for FY/ average of equity at the end of current FY and previous FY. For eg ROE for FY23 = 65 /0.5(480+552)
- I’v considered no cash out flow in terms of dividend/buybacks
As per my calculation, the ROEs will reach 20% by FY26 and the improvement in ROE may cause rerating in the stock. Other than that there are few other things to consider
- Current ROEs are suppressed by cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet
- Cash distribution in terms of dividends and buybacks may improve the return ratios. But considering the co is applying for SFB license, I don’t expect much from this
- The profit growth of 40% may or may not be achieved and the rate would go to >25% in coming years from 0 taxes currently
Would appreciate any point for or against my thesis.
Disc: Invested and biased
Thanks
Praveen
Manappuram Finance (25-11-2023)
the percentages of expenses for half yearly of 2023 STANDALONE minor mistakes may be there
my thesis –
manappuram has higher employee cost due to lower AUM or operational inefficiencies
in the future this might get corrected so that it can effectively compete
Amrita’s portfolio (25-11-2023)
What is your business take on alkyl amines, disregarding the losses you incurred? I also hold Alkyl amines as well as deepak nitrate. I am also in losses…but still holding on…need your informed take on these businesses.
Pragnesh’s portfolio (25-11-2023)
No institutional holding is best
<10% is good
Manappuram Finance (25-11-2023)
for standalone also OPEX is high at 7% standalone is only gold loans
Amrita’s portfolio (25-11-2023)
HCl tech will probably not be a Multibagger.It can be a consistent compounder.Owing to the large size of the company,its growth potential will be limited.Hence I opted for fast growing,small companies with good fundamentals and low P/E.I bought saksoft and InfoBeans Tech.
Alkyl amines underperformed.In general,the chemical sector has made huge losses.I have incurred huge losses in NGL fine Chem and chemcon.I also sold Vinati organics. owing to its super expensive valuations.
Any other suggestions will be appreciated.
100 baggers by Cristopher mayer (25-11-2023)
Hello Dr Pragnesh
Thanks for summarising the book, which I’m sure took lot of effort. It’s very helpful
This is such a impactful point. When we go beyond numbers, then we can see the turn around in quality of company, or coming out of headwinds which could be a trigger for improving return ratios and so valuation rerating.
This is also one important point from ones research. The bandwidth of an individual is limited. So, learning or getting ideas from people is the most efficient way. One can start the research from here and get best outcomes one can. Personally most of my investment ideas come from people either from twitter, VP or youtube and I filter what’s good and what’s not for me.
Shall keep my eyes and ears open for ideas
Portfolio of a novice investor (25-11-2023)
Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
Right now, my primary train of thought is around portfolio concentration (and its risks thereof) and position sizing. After years of investing experience and a fair share of pluses/minuses, I can duly attest that these 2 ideas can immensely impact terminal value for each of our portfolios.
At a personal level, I have been able to resist going beyond 18-20 companies. Want this number to be within 10 in the next 7-10 years hopefully. Hence concentration and sizing are 2 key aspects for me.
Unfortunately, hardly any literature (If any at all) is readily available to learn from to build a 2×2 framework to begin with. Hence, trying to pick from my peer network. Do share if you’ve any thoughts about the same.
PS – thanks for sharing Saber Cap’s article. Weekend’s a great time to think laterally 
Cheers
Goofy