The share seem to have gone in consolidation
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Prudent Corporate Advisory (20-11-2023)
Prudent Corporate is an independent retail wealth management services group in India. It is the 2nd largest non-banking Mutual Fund distributor (based on commissions earned) and the 5th largest overall (up from 12th in FY17). Prudent is one of the fastest growing mutual fund distributors with its AUM recording 41% CAGR during FY17-22 versus industry CAGR of 14.5% for the same period.
Prudent’s sustainable competitive advantage is embedded in the trust it enjoys among the ~25K+ Independent Financial Advisors (IFAs) who operate on Prudent’s platform. This trust is underpinned around availability of a spectrum of financial services products under Prudent’s platform. This range of products allows Prudent to onboard more IFAs under its technology-enabled investment & financial services platform.
Finkaro Unfloding The Unheard Companies with Lot’s of Potential (20-11-2023)
will be tracking this thread sure
Oberoi Realty-A simple real estate story (20-11-2023)
company has added new project
c7ae9f78-000b-40de-9324-5d0975a8a1b2.pdf (298.9 KB)
Oberoi Realty-A simple real estate story (20-11-2023)
company has added new project
c7ae9f78-000b-40de-9324-5d0975a8a1b2.pdf (298.9 KB)
Hitesh portfolio (20-11-2023)
Hello Hitesh ji,
Would appreciate your views on Maruti as a medium term bet (3-4 years) with moderate return (~20% CAGR) expectation. Below is a summary of my analysis and estimates:
• In Q2 FY 2024, company reported highest ever quarterly volume, sales and profit. Sales volume went up 6.7%, revenue up 25% and profit up 80% on YoY basis. As per concall comments, there is no one off, although some factors (commodity, forex) seems to have benefitted the company. Management is cautiously optimistic about growth and margins.
• Company is outpacing industry growth, even when its traditional bastion of small car portfolio sales is muted.
• Maruti is now at leadership position in SUV segment with 23% market share.
• Maruti’s plan of betting on CNG & hybrids in medium term also seems to be working. CNG is 21% of volume in latest quarter.
• Share price crossed 10,000 after coming out of almost 6 year rounding bottom.
In my opinion, with factors like good GDP growth, increased premiumization and growth returning in small car segment, revenue can grow at 15-20%, and profits can grow at 20-25%+ over next few years. Current valuation is also not too demanding considering the latest quarterly result.
Similar situation happened in 2014-2018 period when stock price consolidated for 5+ years and then went up 5X in next 4 years when growth was good.
Hitesh portfolio (20-11-2023)
Hello Hitesh ji,
Would appreciate your views on Maruti as a medium term bet (3-4 years) with moderate return (~20% CAGR) expectation. Below is a summary of my analysis and estimates:
• In Q2 FY 2024, company reported highest ever quarterly volume, sales and profit. Sales volume went up 6.7%, revenue up 25% and profit up 80% on YoY basis. As per concall comments, there is no one off, although some factors (commodity, forex) seems to have benefitted the company. Management is cautiously optimistic about growth and margins.
• Company is outpacing industry growth, even when its traditional bastion of small car portfolio sales is muted.
• Maruti is now at leadership position in SUV segment with 23% market share.
• Maruti’s plan of betting on CNG & hybrids in medium term also seems to be working. CNG is 21% of volume in latest quarter.
• Share price crossed 10,000 after coming out of almost 6 year rounding bottom.
In my opinion, with factors like good GDP growth, increased premiumization and growth returning in small car segment, revenue can grow at 15-20%, and profits can grow at 20-25%+ over next few years. Current valuation is also not too demanding considering the latest quarterly result.
Similar situation happened in 2014-2018 period when stock price consolidated for 5+ years and then went up 5X in next 4 years when growth was good.
Midhun’s Investment journey and Space to organize investment ideas (20-11-2023)
Update on Portfolio . Sold off Paushak, Optemius Infracom, QGO finance and Shaily. Added Techno electric , Basilic Fly (New entrants) and bought additional Shivalik and HBL.
Updated portfolio with Q2 update on the stocks in portfolio below
| Stock Name | Avg Purchase Price | Current Price | % weightage | Investment Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navin Flourine | 680 | 3606 | 7.66 | Value Migration from Old generation flourine application to CDMO/Pharma/Battery chem. Q2 was poor. Still banking on the capex undertaken . FY 25 should be much better. |
| Arrow Green | 368 | 466 | 2.44 | Chequered Past. Low disclosures, but seems to be doing cutting edge research in Bio-Soluble space, Security products, Graphene, Specialty inks etc. Better Q2 on YOY basis . Will evaluate post Q3 results. |
| Guj Themis | 124 | 182 | 3.58 | Fermentation and API play. Dr.Sachin Patel is knowledgeable . Change of model helped. New capex . Moving up the vlaue chain with Rifapentin |
| HBL Power | 300 | 342 | 4.07 | Huge Tail winds of KAVACH (TCAS), Battery segment for 5G adoption & Defence |
| KPIT Tech | 40 | 1624 | 12.53 | Pure play on automotive Software and CASE. Prudent management. Long run way ahead. Excellent quarter . Has tailwinds behind them . ER&D space red hot. |
| Laurus Labs | 590 | 368 | 5.95 | Dr.Chavas brilliance. Successful migration from ARV player to CDMO , Formulation,API. Optionalities like Bio, Gene Therapy etc. (Q2 was poor , still optimistic on the optionalities) |
| Natural Capsule | 410 | 350 | 2.23 | Venturing into HPMC capsules, new capacity is coming online. API manufacturing . PLI play. (Will have to wait till FY26 for substatial growth to kick in from API) |
| Neuland Labs | 2000 | 5396 | 23.06 | From generic APIs to specialty APIs . Biotech customers and Innovator big pharma clients can take to nxt league. Excellent Q2 . Rerating happened. 12k Cr market cap possible. |
| Rategain Travel | 550 | 716 | 4.52 | Travel domain focussed SAAS company. Acts as a bridge between OTAs and Hotels, Airlines etc. AI powered. Excellent results . (What is the risk of AI ?) |
| Ugro Capital | 210 | 268 | 10.18 | Digital focussed NBFC in MSME space. Dr. Nath .10x AUM in 3 yr plan. (Huge expectations, ticks every column . Is it too good for the liking ? ) |
| Gufic Bio | 230 | 298 | 7.33 | Domestic pharma , Liophylisation, API, Botolinum Toxin. New Indore plant with CGMP coming up.Pranav Choksi is knowledgable. (Good come back in Q2 . Waiting for market to rerate) |
| IRIS Business | 126 | 135 | 3.36 | Excellent management pedigree, in the RegTech SAAS space, No competitors in the niche space. Transitioning from services to prodcuts. Micro Cap . Will add after Q3 , CEO looks to be a loud mouth |
| Bajaj Finance | 2338 | 7068 | 2.59 | Got the price right during covid. Not added since. |
| Shivalik Bimetal | 520 | 533 | 3.82 | Bimetal , Shunt Resistor opportunity for EV and Smart Meters. Huge Tail winds ahead. FY 24 might be slow, but huge runway ahead. Looking to add in dips . |
| Basilic Fly | 280 | 279 | 2.93 | Play on the vfx business outsourcing opportunity. SME stock growing at scorching pace with 0 debt and excellent ROCE. Want to play a basket approach after adding Phantom digital too. |
| Techno Electric | 655 | 726 | 3.74 | EPC business in Power Space. Has operations in entire valuchain from generation, distribution along with newly venturing into Data centre business. Stock on fire after exceptional Q2 results. |
| 100.00 |
Midhun’s Investment journey and Space to organize investment ideas (20-11-2023)
Update on Portfolio . Sold off Paushak, Optemius Infracom, QGO finance and Shaily. Added Techno electric , Basilic Fly (New entrants) and bought additional Shivalik and HBL.
Updated portfolio with Q2 update on the stocks in portfolio below
| Stock Name | Avg Purchase Price | Current Price | % weightage | Investment Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navin Flourine | 680 | 3606 | 7.66 | Value Migration from Old generation flourine application to CDMO/Pharma/Battery chem. Q2 was poor. Still banking on the capex undertaken . FY 25 should be much better. |
| Arrow Green | 368 | 466 | 2.44 | Chequered Past. Low disclosures, but seems to be doing cutting edge research in Bio-Soluble space, Security products, Graphene, Specialty inks etc. Better Q2 on YOY basis . Will evaluate post Q3 results. |
| Guj Themis | 124 | 182 | 3.58 | Fermentation and API play. Dr.Sachin Patel is knowledgeable . Change of model helped. New capex . Moving up the vlaue chain with Rifapentin |
| HBL Power | 300 | 342 | 4.07 | Huge Tail winds of KAVACH (TCAS), Battery segment for 5G adoption & Defence |
| KPIT Tech | 40 | 1624 | 12.53 | Pure play on automotive Software and CASE. Prudent management. Long run way ahead. Excellent quarter . Has tailwinds behind them . ER&D space red hot. |
| Laurus Labs | 590 | 368 | 5.95 | Dr.Chavas brilliance. Successful migration from ARV player to CDMO , Formulation,API. Optionalities like Bio, Gene Therapy etc. (Q2 was poor , still optimistic on the optionalities) |
| Natural Capsule | 410 | 350 | 2.23 | Venturing into HPMC capsules, new capacity is coming online. API manufacturing . PLI play. (Will have to wait till FY26 for substatial growth to kick in from API) |
| Neuland Labs | 2000 | 5396 | 23.06 | From generic APIs to specialty APIs . Biotech customers and Innovator big pharma clients can take to nxt league. Excellent Q2 . Rerating happened. 12k Cr market cap possible. |
| Rategain Travel | 550 | 716 | 4.52 | Travel domain focussed SAAS company. Acts as a bridge between OTAs and Hotels, Airlines etc. AI powered. Excellent results . (What is the risk of AI ?) |
| Ugro Capital | 210 | 268 | 10.18 | Digital focussed NBFC in MSME space. Dr. Nath .10x AUM in 3 yr plan. (Huge expectations, ticks every column . Is it too good for the liking ? ) |
| Gufic Bio | 230 | 298 | 7.33 | Domestic pharma , Liophylisation, API, Botolinum Toxin. New Indore plant with CGMP coming up.Pranav Choksi is knowledgable. (Good come back in Q2 . Waiting for market to rerate) |
| IRIS Business | 126 | 135 | 3.36 | Excellent management pedigree, in the RegTech SAAS space, No competitors in the niche space. Transitioning from services to prodcuts. Micro Cap . Will add after Q3 , CEO looks to be a loud mouth |
| Bajaj Finance | 2338 | 7068 | 2.59 | Got the price right during covid. Not added since. |
| Shivalik Bimetal | 520 | 533 | 3.82 | Bimetal , Shunt Resistor opportunity for EV and Smart Meters. Huge Tail winds ahead. FY 24 might be slow, but huge runway ahead. Looking to add in dips . |
| Basilic Fly | 280 | 279 | 2.93 | Play on the vfx business outsourcing opportunity. SME stock growing at scorching pace with 0 debt and excellent ROCE. Want to play a basket approach after adding Phantom digital too. |
| Techno Electric | 655 | 726 | 3.74 | EPC business in Power Space. Has operations in entire valuchain from generation, distribution along with newly venturing into Data centre business. Stock on fire after exceptional Q2 results. |
| 100.00 |
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (20-11-2023)
Just started… Growth nd financial s looks bright.