Venus Pipes seems to be very well-poised to grow from here with multiple levers of variant perception playing out:

• ~60% volume growth for FY24
• 300 bps of Margin Expansion due to backward integration and other cost savings
• Promoter buying
• Favorable Product mix change with share of premium segment (Seamless) becoming higher
• Anti- Dumping duty for imports from China further aiding the
• Shift from unorganised to organized- currently there are just 3 major organised players in this segment of the market with 30% share. The remaining 70% belongs to the unorganised.

In terms of anti-thesis:

• The valuations are no more cheap with PE of 35x for FY24 earnings, some of the growth has already baked in to the share price
• Difficult to figure out the longevity of earnings beyond FY25

Any thoughts?

Disc: Biased and Invested

ImmunoAct: Affordable treatment at price range of 30L-40L from 3Cr- 4Cr. Not only Indians, Asians will get benefitted. more optionality. Every 5 min one is positively diagnosed with blood cancer and 70000 die a year. other than speaking economically paves way to Survival and extension of one’s Life.

Will try to include this when I put out an update.

Indian Single Malt maturation period is 3 yrs in casks.
Piccadily has 50,000+ casks (or barrels) for maturation.
Each cask produces about 200L or about 230-240 750ml bottle.
Implying a capacity of about 38-40 lac Indri bottles per year in theory.
(Indri retail price is Rs 3700 in Delhi, but I guess factory price will be about Rs 2000 -not too sure)

Distillery capacity & malt spirit capacity is far in excess of this…and until now has primarily been used for manufacturing country liquor and for raw material supplies to other alcohol beverage manufacturing companies.
That is why this is a story of forward integration and premiumization.

(A side note:
Day before yesterday night, at the Delhi International Airport’s Departure Area Duty Free, Indri was completely sold out. Sales representative told me that I was the third customer in last 15 mins who had asked for Indri but they have run out of stock. He said it was already doing well but ever since the award news has come, they keep running out of stock every alternate day despite replenishing it in higher quantities and more frequently.
Other travellers flying out of India from Delhi Airport can also check)