Posts tagged Value Pickr
Sathya – Portfolio (08-10-2015)
Dear @madhug and @mmvravindra
Thank you very much for your opinion. Apologies for the late reply!
@madhug I thought about what you said and I agree yours is a much better perspective. I am also wondering if I am fooling myself with all this excuses when in reality deep down in my heart I want the share to recover close to my investment price.
I will give it some more thought and then will act on it.
Thanks Again!
Sathya
Shilpi Cable Technologies – at 2 times PE definitely worth a look! (08-10-2015)
Hi Anirudh
I do not see the unsecured portion of the receivables to be an issue. The movement in Receivable Days and the Cash Conversion Cycle is something that I would spend more time on. If the reported numbers are to be believed, receivable days have slightly reduced to just under 4 months. Also, CCC has gone down from 96 days to 58 days, a pleasing change. However, despite being a very small portion, they should have provided for the receivables which are more than 6 months old. It is less than 3crore, so it should no affect us as much. It is a small irritant. I am concerned about interest costs though. They seem higher with "other borrowing costs" contributing to 15cr and bank charges being 5% of the loans drawn.
Stop Loss in Value Investing (08-10-2015)
Dear VP members,
I have been reading this fascinating book ‘How I made $2m in Stock Market’ which talks a lot about stop loss. Even though the author is a short-term trader, the book is a worthwhile and pleasurable read for a newbie like me.
I have jotted down some of the questions that occurred to me as I was reading the book:
• Is stop loss a relevant tool in value investing – is it more useful for newbies?
• Do you use stop loss regularly in your investments – even for a long term investment horizon?
• What is the right way to use a stop loss in a value / growth investing process?
• How have you effectively use stop loss – how do you revise it as the stock moves up?
• What is the margin that you use for stop loss – I understand this depends on the volatility of the stock in question?
• What is your philosophy behind the whole process – how much does a share has to go down from your original investment levels for you to take a second look at your original reasoning?
Would be really great if the seniors provide their thoughts on this
Thanks!
Sathya
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (08-10-2015)
Technically also most sugar stocks with exception to Balrampur and Shree Renuka was trading with very low volume for last many months with hardly any takers for sugar stocks. Also it is surprising companies with sales turnover in 100s and 1000s cr is quoting at valuation of 20-40 cr and 100 - 200 cr across the board and this amount of undervaluation is currently not available in any other sector in indian stock market. Basically most sugar stocks is already priced for bankruptcy and holding sugar inventory which is more than mcap for many stocks. Offcourse debt in many cases also is relatively very high and some of them in CDR.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (08-10-2015)
One key reforms expected to be announced in near term by GOI is linkage of sugarcane prices with sugar prices and creation of a sugar stabilization fund and govt may directly decide to provide subsidy to sugarcane farmers for shortfall for FRP declared. Also clear cut sugar export/import policy during surplus/deficit years in place of current adhocism can change long term outlook for sugar industry for investment purpose and may be catalyst for further rerating of sugar stocks. Any clarity on ethanol policy front is only added benefits as and when petrol prices start rising again.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (08-10-2015)
I guess as opinioned by many learned boarder, 10 cent is rock solid floor for sugar prices in international market. This much downside is only possible because of sharp devaluation of brazillian currency against US dollar (from around 1.25 real per dollar to 4 real per dollar) due to various political mismanagement etc inside brazil which incidentally control more than 45 % sugar export and have disproportionate influence on global sugar prices. Else near term demand for sugar is highly inelastic and grows around 2-3 % annually at all times good or bad. Brazilian sugar operation most efficient globally is also in losses from last 2-3 years and it is not possible for them to produce sugar suistanably below 12 13 cent. India being largest consumer also has important influence on global sugar prices. This year severe drought in many part of country is likely to reduce sugarcane production and recovery very significantly for next 2-3 years. This year drought can only be compared with drought in 2008 and 2002 in recent times in its severity whose full effect is likely to be felt in coming months and sugarcane planting for next year may be even lower. With favorable expected scenarios it is very much possible for sugar to touch around 25 cent in international market and around 40-45 rs per kg in indian market, which if happens can lead to multibaggers return in most sugar stocks. This recent rally may be just beginning for the same.
I’m new here.can any one suggest me something? (08-10-2015)
Hello friends, my name is dipal patel and i'm a student.i just started working with commodity work but i don't know that how to deal with it.so anyone have any suggestion for it? i mean from which place i can get proper guidance and solution of my problems?
Any views on Man Infra (08-10-2015)
Prosperotree has initiated coverage around Rs 34 last month., worth studying the same. If interested one can google their website and search for the report.
Disc : No Holding as of now.
Amit
Shilpi Cable Technologies – at 2 times PE definitely worth a look! (08-10-2015)
Hi Harsh,
I have looked at the Receivables of Shilpi in FY 2015 and for the previous years.Most of it is unsecured in nature and considered good but the strange thing is that it has'nt recorded any Provisions unlike its peers, which for me seems quite an aggressive accounting practice.