Can you kindly highlight what CG issues Caplin Point has ?
I looked at operating cash conversion for the past 5 years it looks fine, net cash company , no family on BoD.
Not sure if I’m missing anything
Can you kindly highlight what CG issues Caplin Point has ?
I looked at operating cash conversion for the past 5 years it looks fine, net cash company , no family on BoD.
Not sure if I’m missing anything
Things are making sense except this -
I’ve studied Ajay Upadhyay’s history, portfolio size, past company choices, failures & success in markets - he isn’t a punter, trader, or your average Joe. He’s extremely prudent and I’d like to think that he knows very well what he’s doing.
Usha martin, Elecon, Genus, Time Technoplast, Skipper Ltd, Dollar, Precam, all super solid companies, and also a master of turnarounds in WIL, Vascon, etc.
I’d like to think that it is very unlike him to continue to invest in a company that may seem to have CG issues (OMAXE feels like an outlier to me, at least for now).
So obviously, he is comfortable with the promoter sale which took place earlier and the one today.
As he holds more than 1% and I think after today’s deal maybe near or slightly more than 2%, the questions in my mind are:
Being such a large shareholder, would he have to be informed by the CS (or owner) of the reason for the promoter group sale? The fact that he bought half of it, maybe yes…?
The company seems primed and the runway can be huge - if this is so (that’s why he’s buying?) - what could potential reasons be for promoter to offload? Just some cash generation?
If if was just cash generation - then why are they selling on the first uptick post good news, where price is just reversing and surely by end of the week / month it could possibly be much higher. They sold today at 20 less than their previous sale. Surely, they are not living off the street in need of immediate cash.
There seems to be more to this and one cannot truly understand by just looking at this sale information in a single dimension.
Would love to hear thoughts & ideas around this.
Invested & holding a healthy position.
Things are making sense except this -
I’ve studied Ajay Upadhyay’s history, portfolio size, past company choices, failures & success in markets - he isn’t a punter, trader, or your average Joe. He’s extremely prudent and I’d like to think that he knows very well what he’s doing.
Usha martin, Elecon, Genus, Time Technoplast, Skipper Ltd, Dollar, Precam, all super solid companies, and also a master of turnarounds in WIL, Vascon, etc.
I’d like to think that it is very unlike him to continue to invest in a company that may seem to have CG issues (OMAXE feels like an outlier to me, at least for now).
So obviously, he is comfortable with the promoter sale which took place earlier and the one today.
As he holds more than 1% and I think after today’s deal maybe near or slightly more than 2%, the questions in my mind are:
Being such a large shareholder, would he have to be informed by the CS (or owner) of the reason for the promoter group sale? The fact that he bought half of it, maybe yes…?
The company seems primed and the runway can be huge - if this is so (that’s why he’s buying?) - what could potential reasons be for promoter to offload? Just some cash generation?
If if was just cash generation - then why are they selling on the first uptick post good news, where price is just reversing and surely by end of the week / month it could possibly be much higher. They sold today at 20 less than their previous sale. Surely, they are not living off the street in need of immediate cash.
There seems to be more to this and one cannot truly understand by just looking at this sale information in a single dimension.
Would love to hear thoughts & ideas around this.
Invested & holding a healthy position.
Alembic Pharma -
Q1 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 1562 vs 1486 cr, up 5 pc
EBITDA - 237 vs 199 cr, up 14 pc (margins @ 15 vs 13 pc)
PAT - 135 vs 121 pc, up 12 pc
R&D expenses @ 114 cr
Gross borrowings - 589 cr
Cash on books - 147 cr
Segment Wise revenues -
India branded - 572 cr, up 9 pc ( 37 pc of sales )
US generics - 461 cr, up 18 pc ( 29 pc of sales )
RoW formulations - 271 cr, up 2 pc ( 17 pc of sales )
APIs - 259 cr, down 15 pc ( 17 pc of sales )
Breakdown of India business -
Acute - 23 pc
Veterinary - 17 pc
Chronic and Semi Chronic - 60 pc
Launched 02 products in US mkts in FY 25. Aim to launch 10 more products in Q2. Cumulatively now have 149 products in US
Have started sales operations in Chile and UAE. RoW growth to be driven by expansion into new territories and new launches
Filed 01 DMF in US in Q1. Cumulatively, have filed 133 DMFs in US. Slowdown in API business was due to lower off take by a particular client - is transitional in nature. Future capex is on track. Supplying APIs to 60 + countries, globally
Animal healthcare business grew by 23 pc in Q1
Guiding for a 10 - 15 pc growth in the US business for full FY 25
Expect RoW business to pick up in H2. In H1, company is facing supply bottlenecks. Should take 1-2 Qtrs to resolve them
As the capacity utilisation of newer facilities improves, company expects their EBITDA margins to reach the 18-20 pc band in 2-3 yrs. Also for FY 25, company expects to improve their margins vs FY 24
Expecting strong growth to continue in the Animal health business IE > 25 pc for FY 25 as well
Company witnessed double digit price erosion in the US business in Q1
India sales force @ 5500. Yield / month @ 3.8 lakh / sales person
Aim to keep the Gross Margins in the 70-74 pc band
Disc : not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
Alembic Pharma -
Q1 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 1562 vs 1486 cr, up 5 pc
EBITDA - 237 vs 199 cr, up 14 pc (margins @ 15 vs 13 pc)
PAT - 135 vs 121 pc, up 12 pc
R&D expenses @ 114 cr
Gross borrowings - 589 cr
Cash on books - 147 cr
Segment Wise revenues -
India branded - 572 cr, up 9 pc ( 37 pc of sales )
US generics - 461 cr, up 18 pc ( 29 pc of sales )
RoW formulations - 271 cr, up 2 pc ( 17 pc of sales )
APIs - 259 cr, down 15 pc ( 17 pc of sales )
Breakdown of India business -
Acute - 23 pc
Veterinary - 17 pc
Chronic and Semi Chronic - 60 pc
Launched 02 products in US mkts in FY 25. Aim to launch 10 more products in Q2. Cumulatively now have 149 products in US
Have started sales operations in Chile and UAE. RoW growth to be driven by expansion into new territories and new launches
Filed 01 DMF in US in Q1. Cumulatively, have filed 133 DMFs in US. Slowdown in API business was due to lower off take by a particular client - is transitional in nature. Future capex is on track. Supplying APIs to 60 + countries, globally
Animal healthcare business grew by 23 pc in Q1
Guiding for a 10 - 15 pc growth in the US business for full FY 25
Expect RoW business to pick up in H2. In H1, company is facing supply bottlenecks. Should take 1-2 Qtrs to resolve them
As the capacity utilisation of newer facilities improves, company expects their EBITDA margins to reach the 18-20 pc band in 2-3 yrs. Also for FY 25, company expects to improve their margins vs FY 24
Expecting strong growth to continue in the Animal health business IE > 25 pc for FY 25 as well
Company witnessed double digit price erosion in the US business in Q1
India sales force @ 5500. Yield / month @ 3.8 lakh / sales person
Aim to keep the Gross Margins in the 70-74 pc band
Disc : not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
I am currently reading the book “Masterclass with superinvestors” which features interviews of Ace Indian Investors.
Here are my notes from Chapter 1 - Interview with Ramesh Damani Sir
The stock market is about looking ahead and not looking behind
Investing in markets is about looking ahead. Focus on where the puck is moving. The following passage from Prof Bakshi’s blog caught my attention which resonates with Ramesh Damani Ji’s advice about looking ahead.
At a price, everything is captured. Basically as a fundamental investor, one should look at where downside risk is limited i.e. the price already captures all the negatives.
Countries never go bankrupt - they can raise taxes, appropriate wealth, do anything they want, and also force hard changes
The opportunity of the last 30 years will be dwarfed by the opportunity of next 30 years
When you have a great idea, you need to back up the truck and buy
Further, when stock goes up, a smart investor will keep adding at various points, while an average investor might not.
Damani Ji writes about backing up the truck aka position sizing multiple times in his interview in the book.
This is how position sizing takes you to a completely different trajectory:
In 2000, when the tech bull market ended, about 95% of my portfolio was in technology stocks
You only need 1-2 big winners; if you size them you will see the magic….
I would say I was riding the trend - I was bullish on Technology, I happened to be in technology and the bull market was in TMT. Infosys and CMC had gone up 100x each and the rest of the portfolio was dwarfed.
Journey to 100x
“The next Xerox is Xerox”.
It meant that Xerox was one of the glamour stocks in the 1960s and it doubled multiple times. You don’t sell it just because it doubled or tripled. You just keep it - “Next Xerox is again Xerox”. I remembered that. I had realized the size of the opportunity. I understood that the Indian Industry was a billion dollars in size, while it is a trillion-dollar Industry in a Global Context.
If you are a smart stock picker, you will have some leadership stocks. You will typically have one or two among the top 50 stocks that are moving. The trick in position sizing, is to let those stocks run because in a bull market, they can go a long way.
Don’t cut your winners just because they have increased more than a certain percentage of your portfolio. Infosys was 90% of my portfolio once - you want to keep riding the winners.
Do your homework and have the integrity of independent thought
Borrowed conviction will not help.
No one rings a bell when a great investment idea comes. In fact if everyone disparages it, probably you are on to a good investment idea!. If everyone applauds you for your pick - it’s probably not a great idea. There has to be spectism in what you are buying. Finding picks is a lonely job - that integrity of independent thought you need is very lonely.
To be great in the stock market - you need to find your own path
I had learnt that when a bull market gets over, the leaders are squashed completely
This advice is more apt at the start and end of a bull market. Similar thoughts are echoed by Mark Minervini in his book "Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard" where he takes one level further where he advised to look at leaders and not the indices.
Stocks can top out well before the bull market ends.
There is no point in regretting - there are many stocks that I have missed. How can you be so stupid, I ask myself! Despite that, it doesn’t matter if you can double money every three years - it’s pretty cool.
My criterion is an enormous value on the market cap of the company - I see how the market is valuing that company and if I am happily willing to buy this whole company at that price. So I wear businessman’s hat. I might be willing to overlook and tolerate some issues in the hope that they will change.
The first filter is the market cap - how cheap the company is relative to the size of the opportunity or where it could be after 10 years.
Looking at PE only is futile.
eg E-Serve International. Mcap 150 cr, Profit 1 cr i.e. PE 150x
I often find that I am more bullish on the company than the management are! I understand the long-term potential of the business a little better, as they are running the company on a day-to-day basis, bogged down by the short-term, and unable to think of a 3-5-year horizon. Typically when that happens, it is a great bargain - you are getting something really cheap - managements themselves are shaken about the prospects of the business.
Management
Our job is to judge the management. They can tell us anything they want. If they say that there will be a 40% growth, you don’t have to come and buy the stock.
You have to judge the management - you try and understand, look at the body language and see if their talk is credible. You should look at the past track record and see where they have delivered.
Generally, the people who talk in big round numbers are what we tend to avoid. We realize that the business is full of uncertainty and we are looking for someone who tempers that uncertainty.
Portfolio Construction
Don’t care about portfolio construction vs. the benchmarks. I don’t care about sectors - I want to find stocks that are cheap.
“If I can find really cheap stocks, I can put 80% of my money into technology. I don’t balance my portfolio using some mechanical formula”
Signals from the market
At the extremes, a market gives you the invitation that it’s ending or starting and good investors pay a lot of attention to that. Most of the time, timing is a futile exercise, but at extremes, it can be a very profitable exercise.
How the market reacts to news is a very important factor that I use. At the top of the bull market, news headlines will be very positive but the market goes down. It reacts negatively despite good news coming out. It indicates that there is selling going on out there - the smart money is anticipating bad times.
At the bottom of the bear market, the headlines will be very negative - the individual stocks however instead of going down, go up.
“So the principle is that when the public gets smart, the smart get out”
Resource: Masterclass with Super-Investors
Regards
Pankaj Garg
(Learning from Superinvestors #1 - Ramesh Damani Ji)
I am currently reading the book “Masterclass with superinvestors” which features interviews of Ace Indian Investors.
Here are my notes from Chapter 1 - Interview with Ramesh Damani Sir
The stock market is about looking ahead and not looking behind
Investing in markets is about looking ahead. Focus on where the puck is moving. The following passage from Prof Bakshi’s blog caught my attention which resonates with Ramesh Damani Ji’s advice about looking ahead.
At a price, everything is captured. Basically as a fundamental investor, one should look at where downside risk is limited i.e. the price already captures all the negatives.
Countries never go bankrupt - they can raise taxes, appropriate wealth, do anything they want, and also force hard changes
The opportunity of the last 30 years will be dwarfed by the opportunity of next 30 years
When you have a great idea, you need to back up the truck and buy
Further, when stock goes up, a smart investor will keep adding at various points, while an average investor might not.
Damani Ji writes about backing up the truck aka position sizing multiple times in his interview in the book.
This is how position sizing takes you to a completely different trajectory:
In 2000, when the tech bull market ended, about 95% of my portfolio was in technology stocks
You only need 1-2 big winners; if you size them you will see the magic….
I would say I was riding the trend - I was bullish on Technology, I happened to be in technology and the bull market was in TMT. Infosys and CMC had gone up 100x each and the rest of the portfolio was dwarfed.
Journey to 100x
“The next Xerox is Xerox”.
It meant that Xerox was one of the glamour stocks in the 1960s and it doubled multiple times. You don’t sell it just because it doubled or tripled. You just keep it - “Next Xerox is again Xerox”. I remembered that. I had realized the size of the opportunity. I understood that the Indian Industry was a billion dollars in size, while it is a trillion-dollar Industry in a Global Context.
If you are a smart stock picker, you will have some leadership stocks. You will typically have one or two among the top 50 stocks that are moving. The trick in position sizing, is to let those stocks run because in a bull market, they can go a long way.
Don’t cut your winners just because they have increased more than a certain percentage of your portfolio. Infosys was 90% of my portfolio once - you want to keep riding the winners.
Do your homework and have the integrity of independent thought
Borrowed conviction will not help.
No one rings a bell when a great investment idea comes. In fact if everyone disparages it, probably you are on to a good investment idea!. If everyone applauds you for your pick - it’s probably not a great idea. There has to be spectism in what you are buying. Finding picks is a lonely job - that integrity of independent thought you need is very lonely.
To be great in the stock market - you need to find your own path
I had learnt that when a bull market gets over, the leaders are squashed completely
This advice is more apt at the start and end of a bull market. Similar thoughts are echoed by Mark Minervini in his book "Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard" where he takes one level further where he advised to look at leaders and not the indices.
Stocks can top out well before the bull market ends.
There is no point in regretting - there are many stocks that I have missed. How can you be so stupid, I ask myself! Despite that, it doesn’t matter if you can double money every three years - it’s pretty cool.
My criterion is an enormous value on the market cap of the company - I see how the market is valuing that company and if I am happily willing to buy this whole company at that price. So I wear businessman’s hat. I might be willing to overlook and tolerate some issues in the hope that they will change.
The first filter is the market cap - how cheap the company is relative to the size of the opportunity or where it could be after 10 years.
Looking at PE only is futile.
eg E-Serve International. Mcap 150 cr, Profit 1 cr i.e. PE 150x
I often find that I am more bullish on the company than the management are! I understand the long-term potential of the business a little better, as they are running the company on a day-to-day basis, bogged down by the short-term, and unable to think of a 3-5-year horizon. Typically when that happens, it is a great bargain - you are getting something really cheap - managements themselves are shaken about the prospects of the business.
Management
Our job is to judge the management. They can tell us anything they want. If they say that there will be a 40% growth, you don’t have to come and buy the stock.
You have to judge the management - you try and understand, look at the body language and see if their talk is credible. You should look at the past track record and see where they have delivered.
Generally, the people who talk in big round numbers are what we tend to avoid. We realize that the business is full of uncertainty and we are looking for someone who tempers that uncertainty.
Portfolio Construction
Don’t care about portfolio construction vs. the benchmarks. I don’t care about sectors - I want to find stocks that are cheap.
“If I can find really cheap stocks, I can put 80% of my money into technology. I don’t balance my portfolio using some mechanical formula”
Signals from the market
At the extremes, a market gives you the invitation that it’s ending or starting and good investors pay a lot of attention to that. Most of the time, timing is a futile exercise, but at extremes, it can be a very profitable exercise.
How the market reacts to news is a very important factor that I use. At the top of the bull market, news headlines will be very positive but the market goes down. It reacts negatively despite good news coming out. It indicates that there is selling going on out there - the smart money is anticipating bad times.
At the bottom of the bear market, the headlines will be very negative - the individual stocks however instead of going down, go up.
“So the principle is that when the public gets smart, the smart get out”
Resource: Masterclass with Super-Investors
Regards
Pankaj Garg
(Learning from Superinvestors #1 - Ramesh Damani Ji)
In my opinion, governments typically oppose monopolies and favor competition. While better technology from Shakti is beneficial for everyone in the value chain and for the country, we must consider a key point in the context of the new tender that Amit shared. At the end of the day, a competitor of Shakti could potentially submit a lower bid and still meet all the tender requirements, even without the technological advantage that Shakti Pump offers (according to management).
Yes, this might mean that farmers need to manually turn off the pump and feed the grid to earn money when there’s no need to pump water for the field. Although this adds a layer of inconvenience, it’s manageable.
Ultimately, as long as a competitor can offer remote monitoring capabilities and fulfill all the tender requirements, they have a chance to win this tender, even without the advanced technology that Shakti provides.
In my opinion, governments typically oppose monopolies and favor competition. While better technology from Shakti is beneficial for everyone in the value chain and for the country, we must consider a key point in the context of the new tender that Amit shared. At the end of the day, a competitor of Shakti could potentially submit a lower bid and still meet all the tender requirements, even without the technological advantage that Shakti Pump offers (according to management).
Yes, this might mean that farmers need to manually turn off the pump and feed the grid to earn money when there’s no need to pump water for the field. Although this adds a layer of inconvenience, it’s manageable.
Ultimately, as long as a competitor can offer remote monitoring capabilities and fulfill all the tender requirements, they have a chance to win this tender, even without the advanced technology that Shakti provides.
For Knowledge purpose , kindly share such FMCG companies doing Most of its revenue from Export oriented Business. LT foods is purely commodity even though housing brand in its commodity product (Rice).
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