Friend you are doing a good job. Can you add more flavor to KSK Energy post? (or for matter all the post). Why would the real show in 2016 change and what is PPA of TN and UP? OR are you doing it on respective threads and I should check there?
Thanks
GreyCells
This should be viewed in light of possible IPO for Quess. There were news report of conflicts between Thomas Cook’s management ( aka Fairfax ) and Ajit Isaac. There we were – Prem Watsa’s standing their and not able to fork out Quess with Ajit in it, Ajit Isaac not wanting to have long term commitment without having significant stake in it and minority shareholders waiting for IPO 
.
In this context , I view it as solution to grid lock so we all could march ahead.
Second, Mr. Isaac is putting 1 million shares for 8 year lock in. So we can be reasonably assured of Mr. Isaac being with Quess till 2023. if Adecco had similar deal for him when buying PoepleOne , we might not have got Quess. Mr. Isaac can move out and rebuild it all over again on his own.
Then, I doubt if I would have liked any rights issued to me with more than 1 year lock-in period.
In the over all context and bigger plans of Thomas cook, I would be in favor of TC resolving matters fast. My bigger worry would be if they do not fork out Quess or keep repeating same mistake in future.
Disc – Invested
Thanks for the notes from the concall.
There was a news item on the white fly attack on crops in Punjab. Because the pesticides had no effect on the crops grown from BT Cotton seeds, there was talk of govt screening the seeds in future. Was there any discussion about this in the concall?
I had read smbdy saying this before as well on the forum (i.e. valuing on pe basis).
I thought then, that would try to find and read about this thought process on google, but haven’t been able to do so as yet.
I am not saying that P/BV shud be used in isolation but shud be used in the light of other factors stated. I am able to reconcile with why P/BV is or shud be used. Could you please guide me to some references about this on the net (use of PE) if you have come across any good reads on this. I would like to understand more as to why PE should be used and the differences there off.
Thanks.
I was joined in 10 min late.. I could not make any notes as I was in office. Below are the some points which
i could remember.But not sure why it went down so drastically.. may because not much growth expected from Management in cotton acreage.
1) Management said,they are sure to grow by 25% in next fiscal.SOld close to 58 laks packet this year(H2) and
hopeful to sell around 70-75 laks packet next year.
2) He said, they are confident of winning the case against Monsanto
2) This quarter loss is due to the write off in Maize seeds.
3) If the Court order is in favour of Monsanto, they can easily pay that amount(65 Cr Q1+1Cr Q2) as they have close to 300 Cr cash
Most of the cash in liquid MF’s
4) Rasi and Nuziveedu gained market share at the expense of Kaveri.Now its around 14%
5) There will not be much improvement in cotton acreage. This year, it was around 4Cr packet.
Next year, packets demand would be around 4.2Cr to 4.4Cr and out of which they are targetting for 70 laks packet.
Farmers from Karnataka and other state may again switch to cotton next year(20-40 laks more packet)
6) Out of 58 laks this year-33 laks–Andhra and Telangana
12 laks–Maharasthra
5 laks–Karnataka
i think, remaining from Rest of india
7) On the Vegetable seed business, not much revenue
8) Planning to increase the cash chest to 400 Cr. i think, he said no dividend
9) Spending around Rs.12/packet for advertising
10) By next May, tey will have close to 90 laks packet stock.(i think 45 laks this year unsold inventory+45 next year)
11) There were some talks on whitefly issue in Punjab which they said it was not due to seeds(dont remember the exact reason)
12) For Some question on Govt agency in Nagpur releasing BG1 seeds with very less price, mgmt said those seeds will not be pet resistent as they are BG1
and we are selling BgII already
Disc: Invested from lower level.>10% of Portfolio.
It is really testing the patiency…
2 back to back blockbuster results..why Mr.Market is ignoring the last Q1 and Q2 results..
is market expecting that those are one offs.
increased the allocation from 3% to 10% in last 3 months..between 1370 to 1600..
why it is going for big correction..from 1850 to 1330…
is it right time to bulk up the positions in this business.
Lycos Quarter 2 – Fy16 -Results Analysis n Projections:
ALL figures are CONSOLIDATED numbers ( beware of posts highlighting standalone results with the sole intention of misguiding small investors and drive them to sell their shares)
Q2 16 metrics:July- Sep 2015 (ESTIMATED)
Revenue: INR 565 cr
PAT: INR 105.16 cr
EPS: INR 2.21
Q2 of FY15 metrics :July- Sep 2014
Revenue: INR 460 cr
PAT: INR 82.47cr
EPS: INR 1.76
April- June 2015 ( Q1 of FY16):
Revenue: INR 498.64cr
PAT: INR 90.69 cr
EPS: INR 1.9
Growth Trajectory:
SEQUENTIAL (Q2-FY16 over Q1-FY 16)
1. Revenue growth: 13.31% (565 over 498.64)
2. PAT growth: 16%. (105.16 over 90.69)
3. EPS growth: 16.31%. (2.21 over 1.9)
“YoY -Q2 Comparison (Q2-FY16 over Q2-FY 15) is as follows:
1. Revenue growth: 22.82 % (565 over 460)
2. PAT growth: 27.51 %. (105.16 over 82.47)
3. EPS growth: 25.57 % (2.21 over 1.76)
Q3-16: PROJECTIONS:Oct-Dec 2015
Revenue: INR 700 cr
PAT: INR 120 cr
EPS: INR 2.52
Estimated Yearly results FY 2016 -CONSOLIDATED
Revenue: INR 2300 Cr
PAT: INR 410 Cr
EPS:INR 8.61
If they above projections come true,
Year (FY16)on Year (FY15)”Annual Growth” Rates will be:
The key positive triggers ( beyond the financials )to look for are :
Additional insights- Overall vs.Digital Vs Software:
1.EBIDTA Margin GROWTH:
A.Overall EBIDTA Margin seq 29.13% (164.58/565) from 28.98% (144.55/498.63). YoY from 29.06% (130.78/450.19) to 29.13% in Q2-16
B. DigitalEBIDTA Margin: seq..35.41% (162.34 /458.38) vs 37.48% (145.7/388.71)
yoy 35.41% (162.34 /458.38) vs 37.98% (130.86/344.53) in year ago quarter. Comment : Marginal drop for significant revenue gains
C.Software EBIDTA Margin: seq..2.24 /106.7 vs loss of 1.15 /109.93 yoy 2.24/106.7 vs loss of 0.08/115.7 in year ago quarter. Margin turned positive decesively.
D.Tax provisioning:Rs.55.33 cr vs 49.91 cr ( previous quarter)vs 39.91 cr (year ago quarter). Year todate – Rs 105.24 cr vs Rs.79.08 cr ( 6 m of previous FY)
Given the past behavior of stock price in the past, not venturing to give target prices:-).
BUT – Did n`t Warren Buffet share with us this wealth creation tip ?
” Stay invested as long as the company produces growing revenues and profits , QoQ, YoY, IRRESPECTIVE OF ITS SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT”.
In reply t
Abhijit,
What is expected PAT by FY20 if we go by Management comentry of 500 cr top line by 2020.
I think it will be 4-5 bagger at max.by FY2020 based on following assumptions.
FY20 topline 500cr (if we go by management forecast)
EBIDTA (20-25%)= 100 cr to 125 cr
PAT FY20= would be 50 to 63 cr.(at the best case)..
FY15 PAT =12.4 cr
FY 16 PAT = 16.2 cr Expected (6.2cr (H1FY16)+10 cr (H2FY16)..
so PAT will be grown by 3 to 4 times…
am i missing something in bove calculations..
Disclo : 5% of allocation in my PF.
LYCOS (NSE & BSE: “LYCOS” or the “company”), one of the most widely known Internet brands in the world and one of the first search engines on the web, on 14th November 2015 announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended 30th September, 2015. The Highlights: Q2 consolidated revenue of Rs. 565.08 Crores, up 22.79% year-over-year. Q2 consolidated EBITDA of Rs. 182.72 Crores. Q2 profit after tax (PAT) of Rs. 105.16 Crores Q2 consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 2.21. “Our teams across the globe are super excited about what we stand for and where we are headed. This quarter is a reflection of that enthusiasm. Big thank you to all the supporters, as we work our way towards the next level.”, said Suresh Reddy, Chairman and CEO of LYCOS. “This quarter the digital division sales are up by 33% from last year.” Revenue for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs. 565.08 Crores, an increase of 13.33% Q-o-Q and 22.79% Y-o-Y. EBIDTA for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs. 182.72 Crores, an increase of 18.53% Q-o-Q and increase of 30% Y-o-Y. PAT for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs. 105.16 Crores, an increase of 15.96% Q-o-Q and increase of 27.50% Y-o-Y. Revenue from Digital Marketing Segment for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs 458.38 Crores, an increase of 17.92 % Q-o-Q and an increase of 33.04% Y-o-Y. PBT from Digital Marketing Segment for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs 162.32 Crores, an increase of 11.42% Q-o-Q and an increase of 26.16% Y-o-Y. Revenue from Software Development Segment for Q2 FY2015-16 was Rs 106.70 Crores, a decrease of 2.93% Q-o-Q and a decrease of 7.74% Y-o-Y. Business highlights: LYCOS Advertising A new product, ‘Vid-In’ was launched that helps publishers monetize their inventory in unique ways by providing them a customizable large video player and tailor-made content. Reccruited new publishers in the News and Travel verticals. A significant delegation participated in Dmexco, the biggest event in the ad-tech industry, this generated substantial new business opportunities and revitalized existing partnerships. Technology Compass: This quarter we focused on enhancing the system’s key features by adding new UI functionalities, we developed API integrations to key demand partners in order to increase operational and yield efficiency. We also added 2 new RTB demand partners and enhanced with new reporting capabilities. Business Intelligence: We completed the development and QA of 2 essential data platforms for the small player and Media Buyers dashboards. Auto-tools development: particularly for mobile and programmatic buying. Video Advertising Started working together with a European SSP (Sell Side Platform) for European demand. In addition, one of our main and well-known demand partners approved our mobile supply. We integrated a new video player to our activity. The mobile apps video activity increased a lot this quarter. We believe it is only the beginning since In-app video advertising is growing exponentially. We had a roadshow in which we met all our main programmatic partners, following that trip we scaled our activity with those partners. LYCOS Media Rebranded and launched 10 new Search verticals including: Business, Economy, Money Matters, Show Biz, Entertainment, Health, Money, Sports, Technology and Travel. Users can now select Lycos and these verticals as there start pages which result in increased search traffic. Signed up with Indeed.com to build a job search vertical at www.jobs.lycos.com, looking to launch the site before the end of Q4. Launched a new deal with Dex Online with a new Supermedia (local) feed. It is live on whowhere.com. Renewed the deal with Google for contextual advertising which increases our revenue share with them. The Boston team attended the ‘Yahoo Partner Day’ at Levis Stadium in San Jose, CA. The team is working on several new initiatives resulting from those meeting including LYCOS email platform and domain monetization ideas. Signed a deal with a content provider (Tinbu) whereby we will be launching 8 additional verticals of various topics including: lottery, horoscopes, celebrity, gas prices, weather, daily comics, ‘today in history’ and suduko. LYCOS LIFE The team is developing a marketing strategy via a test market in one of the major metropolitan cities. There has been excellent response on the Smart Band, especially its ‘tap to transfer’ and sleep alert features. Conference Call Details: LYCOS will host a conference call on Thursday, November 19, 2015, at 2.00 pm IST (Indian Standard Time) to discuss the financial results. Call-in details will be available from the Investor Relations page of the company’s website at: http://corp.lycos.com/investors/ About LYCOS: LYCOS is one of the original and most widely known Internet brands in the world, evolving from pioneering search on the web, into a family of three business units covering digital media, marketing, and Internet of Things (IoT). LYCOS Media is a network of easy-to-use community and social sites in 120 languages across 177 countries. LYCOS’ award-winning products and services include tools for blogging, web publishing and hosting, online games, e-mail, and search. The LYCOS Network of sites and services include Lycos.com, Tripod, Angelfire, HotBot, Gamesville, WhoWhere, and LYCOS Mail. LYCOS Advertising enables businesses, agencies, and online publishers worldwide in meeting their digital marketing needs, serving 40 billion impressions every month. Clients include leading blue chip advertisers like Airtel, British Airways, Coca-Cola, Hyundai Motors, ICICI Bank, ITC, ING, Lenovo, LIC, Maruti Suzuki, MTV, P&G, Qatar Airways, Samsung, Viacom, Sony, Star India, Vodafone, Titan, and Unilever. Publishers include Facebook, LinkedIn, MSN, Twitter, and Yahoo! LYCOS works with agencies like Havas Digital, JWT, Mediacom, Mindshare, Neo@Ogilvy, OgilvyOne, OMD, Satchi&Satchi, TBWA, and ZenithOptiMedia, to name a few. LYCOS Life is the new consumer products division focussed on IoT. LYCOS Life is dedicated to the future of communication and information management in which everyday objects will be connected to the internet, also known as the “Internet of Things” (IoT).
disclosure: holding it