In order to deepen my learning on value investing, I have started teaching it for free in the US. You can find my detailed lecture notes at https://goo.gl/lbtB6N. The lecture notes is a work in progress. The course outline can be found at https://goo.gl/rkdtih.
Regards,
Jana
Update: Value Research has now made it mandatory to log in to see financials. So to download financials via Excel, the user will have to first login to VR via Internet explorer (be sure to check ‘remember me’)
A key credit risk I would monitor is their average ticket size. I would prefer that they continue to lend smaller amounts to larger number of customers, than larger amounts to lesser no. of customers in their quest for growth. For the segment they cater to, granularity is one major risk mitigant. I was not happy with the increase in ticket size ( had a similar observation in June quarter also). A single 20 lakh loan defaulting would mean the entire 20 lakh has to be classified as NPA. And this event is more likely than, say, 4 customers with 5 lakh loan outstanding all defaulting together (although not impossible). While one can argue that it continues to be secured by almost double (Loan to value ratio of 50%) however recovery by repossession and resale is not easy.
Otherwise, Repco has a lot of things going for it – reduction in interest rates, improvement in credit ratings, market size etc.etc.
Discl – core long term holding. no recent buy/sell.
Does anybody have the breakdown of sales from different segments?What is the weightage of consumer durables segment?Success in branding would be the trigger for rerating.However a rudimentary internet research shows many customers unhappy with customer service – might be worth noting.
Absolutely nothing wrong with frequent postings…the research u r doing is great and other investors would be highly grateful for posting your views on the same….
even i got a very positive feedback about Durga ghee from some businessman who stays in Andhra…he was positive not only on the brand but also about the management …. he told the promoters are good and doing good business….
Appreciate that you liked the ground research, I have observed further points but refrained from posting as I’m not sure how forum members will take my frequent postings on this company as there is thin line between genuine and passionate research and misunderstanding my intent as I hold the stock and is a small cap.
Anyway here you go,
If you closely observe the second pic last but one row and extreme right, you will find packs with 2 different colours, 1 in light blue and another in darker shade (which is the colour of all other packs). The light blue ones are old stock from July 2015 while the darker ones are from October 2015 stock – I have checked. To keep away the competition copy cats which came up with the lighter blue shade packaging, Virat Crane has come up with better packaging and labelling – my guess here.
The point I’m driving here is a) management is forth coming and proactive in generating sales. b) Product sales are moving and very less/no 3 months old stock in retail stores.
Not sure if this is covered already, but there is no or less %ge discounts given on Durga Ghee while adjacent other Ghee companies offers freebies, more discounts but Durga ghee sells.
I’m assuming this aggressiveness is a recent phenomenon which will bear fruits in future in terms of sales growth.
this is excellent analysis and research on the ground… thanks a lot for enlightening fellow investors….
Hi Kapil,
I have almost fully exited from Lloyd so am not tracking it very closely. Nothing fundamentally wrong with the story, which I think is getting better as the focus is clearly shifting from OEM segment to Consumer Durables. In the long run, this can only be good news for the shareholders as selling under it’s own brand “Lloyd” is more likely to re-rate the stock. Higher advertising spends is largely responsible for the decline in the profits from this segment. This again should be viewed positively and seen as investing for the future.
The stock has had a remarkable run over the last couple of years & it’s not done yet! It was a particularly rewarding investment for me, & more satisfying as I was consistently advised against holding on to it by most seasoned investors whose opinion I value. For me exiting Lloyd was more to realize gains & redeploying.
http://theaceinvestor.blogspot.in/2015/11/indian-terrain-fashions-ltd-diwali.html?m=1
IMHO expecting it to give move like Page Industry is bit more to ask, but ya, good in depth analysis. Can be multi bagger from here.
Happy investing.
Control Print call board meeting for Bonus:
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=a43792b6-4cf6-4077-b11b-f0baca5d34df
While is no way its change fundamental of business, for strange reasons, market participant become optimistic for company which declared bonus. I would rather happy with stock price going in 4 digit over period of time, as it reduce volatility in stock price movement which is what I like. But then, market has its own way of evaluation.
Happy Diwali !!!