Hello All,

If I am not wrong, there was a labour strike again in Q1 15-16, which has affected its revenues and hence profits too when compared to Q on Q. They faced regulatory issues regards to USFDA some years ago which led to drop in sales. They seem to be sorting the same and in the meantime also trying to push its products in other markets. Does anyone have any update on the latest labour strike?
If anyone has successfully tried speaking to the management, then please update. @ayushmit
Need to closely watch for Q2 results. TIA

Hi Akaash,

Based on past numbers and focus on high margin business, the company looks good. I will dig deeper into it. In the meantime, could you please throw some light on competitor analysis, market size, placement of TAKE in the domestic markets, etc. Thanks a ton in advance.

With capex being completed, the base business itself should be able to grow 15%. Overall they should deliver a 20%+ growth for next 2-3 years. The windfall from gAbilify can help them retire debt as well as acquire a company to strengthen their portfolio.

They should definitely do an 80+ eps for FY17 and with a conservative PE of 20, we have some upside right now and at least a 25% in next one year.

Agree, a bit uneasy with respect to this stock movement, HOWEVER,

1. Let us see how the business is doing currently: There is nothing that makes me believe that its business fundamentals have changed. There could be few muted quarter in between, no business can avoid this. But during this time, the distribution channels the company build, the dealer-management relationship, brand building, product stickiness, high RoE will help immensely to turn the tide, IF at all. Growth will be there for the next 3-5 years in all probability. How much of this is already built into the stock price is another debate all together and whether one should invest at what valuations is left to each ones comfort. Also, I BELIEVE, if one should invest or not also depends on PORTFOLIO SIZE. For large portfolios it makes sense to hold on to Page given the hard work the management has done to make Page what it is today.

2. How the business is likely to do: The opportunity for growth is still immense as, as per AGM Page still accounts for 8% of the total available opportunity. I see aggressive online ads from Tommy Hilfiger figuring Nadal. I think MNCs are making a comeback again to be ready for the economic upswing. During the initial stages of aggressive BRAND AWARENESS, the existing brands get more sales than the one doing the marketing (ironically). Going forward, the women wear, kids wear should help sustain growth. I somehow think, if economy grows at 10% in 2 years, Page can grow at 40% even on higher base.

3. Exports and Swinwear: Currently, the company though has license in Sri Lanka, Nepal, UAE (middle east?), the company has not concentrated much as home market is good enough to attain scale, but I think these countries hold the key to Page becoming mega large cap. I moved to a gated community in Hyderabad and I see kids, kids, kids so much interested in swimming and I hope the parents would buy speedo as parents always want the best for kids, inevitably.

As I always disclose, my holding in the stock may attribute to the positive rants that I make. Should one buy or not is personal decision taking into consideration "how he/she thinks that valuations hold or not" NOT on "if current valuation is high" as valuation for businesses for Page will always be high. Whether it will hold or not is what you need to decide. For Page investors, looking at Nestle, Gillette, Bluedart, Eicher may give proper sleep