Pratik- Can u share the concall details
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Economic Value added (02-11-2015)
Can’t agree more. Will summarize it in a different way for the benefit of future readers
- DCF / EVA / Any valuation measure is a scientific art. It is neither science nor art.
- No investor gets rewarded for estimating the value accurately. It is not like predicting scores.
- You get rewarded / penalized for the Go-No Go decision at a particular price.
- You get rewarded / penalized equally with a guy who values differently (read different assumptions and projections) the same stock for the same duration.
- The value you estimate just gives a rough idea of the margin of safety from the price. Nothing more than that.
Shah portfolio check (02-11-2015)
Most of your picks look good and you have the age factor at your advantage 
I have not been tracking J&K Bank recently. But you may want to keep a check on the NPAs and stressed assets.
EROS – I am not sure what is happening there. You should take an informed decision.
Amongst your watch-list Astra Microwave and Raymond’s could be the ones to watch out for.
Arvind limited – a triple play of RM tailwinds, brand growth and de-merger play/re-rating (02-11-2015)
@varadharajanr thanks for replying so promptly.
So if I understand this correctly, this is like consignment accounting where they give inventory to their consignors (sub-franchisees) and recognise them as receivables in lieu of goods sold (with a mark up of say 50%)? Please correct me if I am mistaken. Additionally if I am correct, could you shed some light on the generic arrangement that they have with their consignors (I understand they probably vary brand to brand) on whether the goods sold can be returned and if so under what terms and conditions – as this might impact returns over the long term in case of poor seasons.
Thanks again for the prompt reply
Duke Offshore – Hidden Gem? (02-11-2015)
Had a talk with the management representative few days back. Company is in advanced stages for procuring an OPV and deal may be struck anytime soon. The intimation should come to BSE mostly by the end of this month after the procurement is done.
POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities ) (02-11-2015)
Pokarna and Asian Granito play in different segments/geographies of market due to technology, so its not apples to apples.
@kanvgarg123 Pokarna uses Breton Stone technology which is the best in the world and allows it to compete in US market (high margin) with the biggest names (at least it can try).
The monopoly questions needs to be looked differently. Pokarna is the only player in India with Breton Stone tech. But it sells in export markets where it competes with players with Breton Stone tech from other companies. There is good discussion in this thread regarding the geographic competitive advantages with risks that Pokarna might be leveraging.
@jatin Pokarna does not need to compete in India (lower margins) as it can sell in high margin export market (esp US). Asian Granito can’t in that high margin US export segment due to quality difference (refer technology difference above)
Lactose India – Unique Play on Lactulose & Contract Manufacturer for MNCs (02-11-2015)
Lactose seems an Interesting story. Company growth is almost certain. But the question is when and how it will reflect to the stock price. I think promoters intended to keep the price down and increase their holding to the maximum. that is why they did not disclose Kerry acquisition of the company. As well promoters selling few shares in every quarter hence public get a fear about it meantime they are increasing their holdings through preferential shares and allotting shares to non promotors (As Nirav said companies indirectly related to promoters). Now it seems apart from Kerry Sanofi also invested in Lactose. I cannot able to read the scenario going to happen in lactose. If someone can please explain the possibilities going to happen here
Byke hospitality – Truly asset light? (02-11-2015)
Thanks Sreenath for taking the gist out from the report.
Below is the link for complete update on Q2 FY 16:
Arvind limited – a triple play of RM tailwinds, brand growth and de-merger play/re-rating (02-11-2015)
Sachit
It’s because they have launched a few brands recently – zara, children’s place and these warrant high inventory and receivables (from the franchisee). I gather this by leafing through the conference calls.
That said, I think it’s a big risk still and that will be a drag on any potential re-rating – all the good ones, like aditya birla nuvo, kewal kiran has a cash and carray model that results in high RoEs consistently.
Eros international (02-11-2015)
Disclosure: Not invested
I found an outstanding and instrucutive analysis on Eros group that concludes with compelling evidence that:
a) The accounting is extremely aggressive in an industry with intangible and volatile assets (films and rights) with ill qualified auditors. Free cash flow is lagging profits which are flattered by aggressive revenue booking (in some subsidiaries receivables increases are higher than sales for the year!) and capitalisation of costs to lower reported expenses
b) Complicated corporate structures and high related party transactions including surprisingly bank guarantee provided by the listed entity to the related entity! Imagine I own a listed firm which does business with my privately owned entity and I ask the listed entity to provide Bank Guarantee to it! Shows my own confidence in the listed entity.
Here’s the link – Eros