Promoter purchased a further 63276 shares today increasing their stake to 0.7%.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Hitesh portfolio (06-06-2024)
Noted… thanks for the insights
Zomato – Should you order? (06-06-2024)
What’s the backup working for these numbers? I don’t think management has guided these numbers - do you have a hypothesis on how PAT will be INR 1,500 and INR 3,400 crore in FY25 and FY26 respectively?
Hitesh portfolio (06-06-2024)
@Krish13 It seems Neuland labs has completed its 3rd wave when it touched 7700 and will now see a sideways correction or time correction before the 5th wave starts. however I would love to see what Hitesh bhai has to say.
Zoom webinar on stage investing (06-06-2024)
did this webinar happen?
Vaibhav Global ~ Vertically integrated value e-tailer of Jewellery and Lifestyle Products (06-06-2024)
Vaibhav global is a jewelry business but it is unlike any other business. It has a fully vertical supply chain and produces and sources products and sells them in US,UK and Germany through digital media and TV. It follows the Zara model and has a strong focus on Gross margins being 60%+
Anyways
Let’s get to the thesis
Thesis
The management is really good and I remember them mentioning they take pride in meeting and succeeding their guidance every single time except post covid. The management has guided for 14-17% growth for the next FY25 with strong operating leverage I have assumed the higher side to see the best possible scenario, I would suggest taking the lower end too in a different model to know the full spectrum of possibilities. However, they acquired two new companies and are hopeful of getting 40-45 million(which is 17 million rn) If that happens, they can surely go past their guidance
EBITDA
EBITDA and sales are all there is to track here. EBITDA was 12% (ended up as 9.5% adding other incomes)
barring the losses of Germany. Germany is expected to break even H2FY25 and hence that drag will go away!
I have been conservative with the margins and only factored in 1.5% reduction of drag from Germany and no improvement in environment of UK and US and acquisition margins to stay the same(highly unlikely)
Management said 15-18% margins are possible in the long term so there is huge growth ahead!
Other income
Other incomes is 0.5% of revenue to factor a 1.5% increase in margins each year
Interest and depreciation shouldn’t move much except a new acquisition. But that should boost revenue as well!
Antithesis
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Fragile state of western economy, especially the UK has caused a lot of problems before and the business is prone to deleverage as well!
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Failure of expected break even of Germany will spoil the improvement of margin
Final thoughts
I think the business is really good and is quite unique. The ROCE is to improve which can increase the bandwidth of exit multiples
Moreover, the TAM of the business is really high as they haven’t penetrated much in their countries(for example US is 15 billion dollars and Vaibhav has 3% share)
And they are open to stating business in Japan and India after Germany is steady and profitable
A lot of consolidation
At support
Let’s see how it goes
I think earnings will catch up a bit for valuation comfort before prices go
But it’s anyone’s guess
IDFC First Bank Limited (06-06-2024)
I have been an investor in IDFC first bank the past 4-5 years and still investing on SIP mode. We still haven’t seen the reflection of the bank’s efficient operations due to elevated costs primarily linked to branch expansion and new product launches. It is unfair to compare a bank which got its license less than a decade ago and started from scratch with a bank which started operations decades back. Like its pointed already, the management guided 5 years back and have delivered on all counts. And i see a similar conservative guidance for the next 5 years which will be easily beaten IMHO. Additionally there are lot of soft factors like customer experience and digital platforms which will play out over the next few years once customers warm up to the bank due to trust factor built with time.
I have never seen any other bank CEO talk fin-tech language anywhere else. And I see this reflecting in the bank’s tech stack and digital customer experience. I would say it is still early days for the bank and it will go through incremental profit metrics as well as valuation re-rating over the next 5 years.
PG Electroplast – Potential for cooler returns? (06-06-2024)
@devidan.n Good Analysis. I have one doubt regarding the revenue. Goodworth revenue will not consider in PGEL imo. Company will do only 3400 cr
Borosil Limited (06-06-2024)
I am trying to find if anyone here has a view on expected valuation leading to expected listing price. Would give us a heads up on valuation anomaly if there would be any, tomorrow.