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The DTH industry has reduced prices of set-top boxes considerably to stimulate demand. While Dish TV has not yet cut headline prices, free recharge vouchers are back, which will dent near-term ARPU momentum. Our earlier concerns over revenue market share are further substantiated by the FY13 financials of unlisted rivals. We cut our FY15-16 EPS by 10-12% and reduce our DCF based target price (WACC: 13.6%) to Rs48 as we factor in lower set-top box price, ARPU and subscriber share given the breakdown of pricing discipline and more competition. We cut our rating from Hold to Reduce, with continued sluggishness in revenue momentum as the key de-rating catalyst.
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