I-direct Top Picks (Jan 2016)

The Chinese market remained the centre spot of the investors after its currency “Yuan” was devalued further triggering its market to hit lower circuit twice in the last fortnight. On the domestic front, Q3FY16E corporate earnings has taken a front seat which are expected to remain subdued. The benefit of lower commodity prices would result into margin expansion for some of the companies. Though a ramp up in earnings would take some time, profitability would be aided by lower input costs and declining interest rates. We expect sectors like auto, cement and capital goods to benefit from this strong operating and financial leverage. Rupee depreciation affirm our positivity on IT and Pharma sector. We continue to maintain our negative bias on metals, infrastructure and real estate. We expect Sensex earnings to grow 7.6% and 20% in FY16E and FY17E to Rs. 1462 and Rs. 1755, respectively. We assign a P/E of 16.5x on FY17E Sensex EPS to arrive at a 12 month forward fair value of 29000 with the Nifty reaching 8800 levels.

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