ICICI Bank under performance may end in next 12 months

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by kharb, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Retail Banks had been firing on Dalal Street for many months and Corporate lenders are bleeding with NPA.But this story can not run for ever.In my view corporate lenders problems may reduce considerably in next 12 months.So in my view ICICI bank may be accumulated on corrections now onwards for decent returns .This is no recommendation for buying as usual ,as I am not a Qualified Registered Adviser but this post is for discussion on this form among members to get their views.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
  2. w4wealth

    w4wealth Well-Known Member

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    porinju recommended Lakshmi vilas bank. i think that is better than ICICI.
     
  3. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    These are in different categories. ICICI Bank is mega Cap.Large and Mega Cap are for only conservative investers like me .Small and mid cap are for aggressive investers,where one has to be extra smart and very informed to take entry or exit .In large cap most of information is in public domain.In small cap you must do your own research as most investers lose money in this class who work on tips,where operters buy stocks cheap and manipulate small investers to off load that junk at higher price.So for small cap I invest in micro and small cap murual funds.
     
  4. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Good UP move by ICICI bank
     
  5. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Slight pause in NPA will result into sharp upmove in ICICI bank,it has to be seen it will happen after this quarter results or it will take more time.
     
    Thamizh likes this.
  6. kakalimaity

    kakalimaity New Member

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    icici bank is looking good for 1 to 2 years view
     
    kharb likes this.
  7. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    @ Mr kharb ,What parametrs you you consider crucial for analysing banking stocks. Kindly explain as you have done many times on my REQUEST.Thanks
     
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  8. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Good Question to ask Kharb sir. he is expert in bank stock :)
     
  9. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    In my view, worst year for ICICI bank has passed.This financial year 2017_2018 may show lower slippages.Year 2018 -2019 may show significant improvement.So now atleast bottom is in place and I don't expect it to go down below 250 even on a bad day if market decides to correct . Now Stock should slowly move past Rs 300 . ICICI bank will be firing with all cylinders in year 2018_19.Biggest strength of ICICI Bank is that it has more than 4850 Branches,so we can expect substantial jump in profit after one year .I see stock crossing 400 with in next two years .I hold the stock
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
  10. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    In line with my hypothesis.Bonus has been anounced -- 1:10.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
  11. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Stock just hit fresh 52 week high . Best part is that stock is still trading at just 2 time book value (like old pvt sector banks)and is at turn around stage .ICICI bank has more than 4850 most modern branches with pan India presence and Global foot print .Now market is at near all time high level with many stocks under fatigue Strom,it is good that This Elephant has started showing strength at right time to help arrest any down trend of market .What a timely move like Reliance did at right time.It looks that ICICI bank was one of few last easy money idea in Nifty Stocks at elevated level.In my viee IT and Pharma are not likely to fall further and may even bounce back by few % to arrest Nifty fall due to cooling off of hot stocks but may not give huge historical return to create wealth.So market need to digest 9000 for some time and that will be best for all the participants.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  12. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    My portfolio is positive 1.06 % today because ICICI Bank 's spike
     
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  13. w4wealth

    w4wealth Well-Known Member

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    howard marks holds icici bank.
     
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  14. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    Out of Karnataka bank (old pvt sector bank) and ICICI Bank most modern biggest bank with around 5000 branches ((approx)both below price to book of two and under priced ,which will out perform in next two years out of these two .
     
  15. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    i like both ... but only one , i like KTK Bank more ....
    today i add 5 shares ICICI Bank for long term investment purpose
     
  16. starry_eyes

    starry_eyes Member

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    So it's the number of branches and global footprint (if you could provide details of its global operations) that are the drivers of this elephant is it?

    What level do you cap one year forward price target at for ICICI?

    I picked up 500 two days ago in anticipation of this short term spike. Otherwise I am not a great fan of ICICI in its current state
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  17. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    I don't know exactly so just guessing ,you pl Google it,may be 11 in different countries.My expectation of price is in previous post .NRI business of those countries and Indian companies doing business with those countries or companies of those countries doing business in India may find some utility of these branches, although most of profitablity and Business for this Bank will come from India.So overseas business can not be criteria for investment in this bank.You seems to be Banking Expert:)
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  18. starry_eyes

    starry_eyes Member

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    I think so too... No indian bank has a global footprint to speak about.

    Also what do you think about the future of 'branch banking'

    Missed your earlier post wherein you gave a forward price estimate. Thanks for the view.

    Am hoping the new NPA framework will provide another short-term spike when I may just sell my latest purchase.
     
  19. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    You r banking expert :) .I can not coment on future of Branch banking .I had heard lot about this from IDFC bank management but I have to see it's stock performance:) ,U know .Better you comment :)
     
  20. starry_eyes

    starry_eyes Member

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    Widely acknowledged expert in here is you sir and not me. My stock investing experience will be 3 years this June. So like global footprint of Indian bank's - nothing to talk about.

    Look forward to you continuing views
     
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