BLOOD ON DALAL STREET IS NEVER A TIME TO PANIC BUT TO KEEP CALM,LESS ROOM FOR MORE CORRECTION.

Some wise quotes on market timing for us to mull over:

1)“Our stay-put behavior reflects our view that the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient.”- Warren Buffett

2) “‘Market timing’ is unappealing to long-term investors. As in hunting deer or fishing for rainbow trout, investors have learned the importance of ‘being there’ and using patient persistence – so they are there when opportunity knocks.”- Charles Ellis

3) “Only liars manage to always be out during bad times and in during good times.”- Bernard Baruch

4) “I can’t recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes’ annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you’d think somebody would have made billions by doing it.”- Peter Lynch

5) “Market timing recommendations have an impressive track record of being harmful to an investor’s financial health.”- Peter Bernstein

6) “I do not know of anybody who had done market timing successfully. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” –John Bogle

7) “If you’re determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor.” -Jack Brennan

8) “Do nothing. I think all of this market timing is statistically unfounded. I don’t trust it. You may avoid a downturn, but you may also miss the rise. Choose the risk tolerance you’re OK with and hold tight.” – Eugene Fama

9) “Your very refusal to be active, and your renunciation of any pretended ability to predict the future, can become your most powerful weapon.”- Jason Zweig

10) After receiving the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, was asked by a CNBC anchorman what investment tips he had for viewers. His answer: “Buy and hold.”

11) “We’ve yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market’s short-term moves.”- The Motley Fool

12) “In the long run it doesn’t matter much whether your timing is great or lousy. What matters is that you stay invested.” -Louis Rukeyser

13) “Stay invested. Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it’s also less work.” -Eric Tyson

14) “It’s a staple of personal finance advice: Buy-and-hold, because trading the stock market is a sucker’s bet.”- Larry Swedroe

15) “Investors desperately want to believe they can time the markets, but the statistics tell a different story.” -Liz Ann Saunders

16) “The market timer’s Hall of Fame is an empty room.” -Jane Bryant

17) “We have found that the fund managers who tend to perform the best over time are the ones who spend the least amount of time debating which way the market is heading” -Don Phillips

18) “Trying to anticipate any market’s ups and downs can be a costly, and futile, exercise.-Wm McNabb

19) “Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner’s circle, and you’ll sleep better at night.” -Michael Leboeuf

20) “If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting that’s going to happen to the stock market.”- Benjamin Graham

21) “Don’t sell out of fear or buy out of greed. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term.”- Norman Fosback

22) “The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero.”- Morgan Housel

23) “Winning with stocks requires only patience, not foresight.”- Jeremy Siegel

24) “People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market.”- David Swensen

25) “What it really takes to improve your returns and diminish your risks is a willingness to stop focusing exclusively on the movement of the markets.”-Baer & Ginsle

26) “The average investor’s return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.”- Daniel Kahneman

27) “Do you know what investing for the long run but listening to market news everyday is like? It’s like a man walking up a big hill with a yo-yo and keeping his eyes fixed on the yo-yo instead of the hill.”- Alan Abelson

28) “In the financial markets, hindsight is forever 20/20, but foresight is legally blind. And thus, for most investors, market timing is a practical and emotional impossibility.”- Benjamin Graham

29) “It is in the nature of stock markets to go way down from time to time. There is no system to avoid bad markets. You can’t do it unless you try to time the market, which is a seriously dumb thing to do. Conservative investing with steady savings, without expecting miracles, is the way to go.”- Charlie Munger

30) “I do not believe it possible to play the in and out game and still make the enormous profits that have accrued again and again to the truly long-term holder of the right stocks.”- Philip Fisher

 

Morgan Stanley Asia sells 5.68 lakh shares of Gati
The shares were sold on an average price of Rs 107.95 valuing the transaction to Rs 6.13 crore
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) has sold 5.68 lakh shares of Gati through the open market route. The shares were sold on an average price of Rs 107.95 valuing the transaction to Rs 6.13 crore.

Gati is a leading player in express distribution and logistics and operates through two divisions - Express Distribution & Supply Chain (EDSC) and Coast- to-Coast (C2C) division. It also operates two container yards at Chennai and Port Blair which increases capability and provides for efficient handling of the cargo

 

Market seems to be preparing for pre budget rally.Those who listen at start of thread might be feeling good.

 

A surprise announcement of negative interest rate by the Bank of Japan and a surge in crude oil prices are the stated reasons for the big lift today. But yes any rally is welcome - even if it is shortlived.

 

Agreed. Immediate catalysts are
1) rate cut by rbi
2) budget

But not sure how many week it lasts.

 

In my view these are just excuses,after a level selling dries in blue chip large caps world over and valuation becomes attractive.People who don't invest regularly and are real opportunist jump .But they just disappear after 15 to 20% bounce back leaving again the same set of old investers in market.Such investers always come in all type of investment at bottom of every thing crude,gold,real estate and stock market .They are short term smart opportunist invester but always wait patiently for any short of blood bath.

 

Oh so oil rally and a suprise announcement of negative interest rates are just excuses... Interesting analysis

 

Market needs to run at rate of inflation plus gdp growth that is aprox 15%.So any excess above that will always go down to align with long term growth as indicated .For that market needs just excuses .Simialry after correction whenever market is near to fair value or below ,just need excuses for going up.I am not an economist but I think this is like that.

 

I think it is called dead cat bounce when something is heavily oversold and there is technical bounce from short-covering of short sellers. We have to see if trend is sustained or not then we can say there is a trend reversal.

 

What should occur for equities to provide strong returns? Should inflation needs to be in the ‘not-too-high, not-too-low’ range? inflation should be falling? Should valuations be reasonable? Are valuation usually dependent on foreign fund inflows? Is Liquidity, rather than domestic fundamentals, the main determinant of returns in the Indian market? Do falling interest rates prepare the base for the big rally in stocks in later years? Does GDP and Inflation explain the NASDAQ climb? And some more too....

My hunger to find answers just keeps growing..

 

In my view every thing follows fundamentals in long term.Fundamentals can pass on inflation,participate in GDP ,attracts liquidity, results in lowering Intrest rates.. So every thing fall in line of fundamentals in long run but not in staright line.

 

So fundamentals is the basic excuse is it?

And can this result in markets running in excess of inflation plus gdp growth with the excess remaining ie not correcting to align to inflation plus gdp ? This so long as fundamentals is the excuse? I dont know...

 

Is GDP growth not function of fundamental of an economy ??.So market return have to align to fundamentals and return should be aprox inflation plus growth.But definitly I am not an economist but my view about return is like that .More or less than that will correct align to it by finding various excuses like we keep on saying reasons of instant reaction.India GDP in long run will be 7.5 % and add inflation of 7.5 or 7%..So Sensex will give return of aprox 14 to 15%..If we remain in Sensex minus commodity,utilities, PSU metal,airlines, we may get 18% return ,that is my target .This is simple to me but definitely complex economist may add many things to it,but all will be irrelvent in long run This is history and will be future.Only for one or two years stocks can deattach from earnings but anyway will align to earning in long term.Present and Future Earnings and surity of consitancy of that of a company is major constituent ,what I mean to say is fundamentals..As repeated I am simplist and not complex economist,so I have simplified this for me only with due regard to complex economists (Lahman had maximum)who's theory may be right but beyond my simple and elementry methods.

 

Bang on here too.

 

There is still time for budget prediction may come true still

 

Noob question: In this heavy panic selling every sale will have buyer then who are those buyers? If there are buyers then why carnage is not being stopped?

 

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