reliance Comm and Reliance Cap are shooting down :(

Sir your level of thinking is much beyond my reach.

 

Anil Ambani is a smart business man inspite of entering in wrong business.See his competitors ,Tata and Adani offering to sale running ULtra Mega power Projects at one rupee and encuring huge losses.He is smart that R power Rosa UMMP is not only making profits due to captive coal mines but he has been smart enough to timely drop, would have been loss making imported coal based UMMP like Krishnapattam and even Taliaya UMMP . Competences are relative terms and can be judged if some body can pull off from a bad situation.

 

If Tata went in for imported "Indonesian coal" back then, so did this super smart Anil Ambani.

So can you be kind enough to let all know why did Reliance exit Taliaya UMPP? If I am not mistakenTaliaya exit was due to non-allotment of land by the Govt even after 5.5years. Doesnt require one to be a smart ass to exit in such circumstances.

What went wrong with Mundra btw? Was it relying on an assured supply of cheap coal from their Indonesian mines?? Throw some light on the the factors which led to Mundra becoming unviable.

And do let me know if the smarty Mr Anil Ambani played his master stroke of requesting to exit (Reliance hasnt exited Krishnapatnam still right?) before these damaging factors played out and hit Mundra - both Tata's and Adani?

BTW I cut out a cheque of Rs 1000/ favouring the Tata's to buy out their stake in the Mundra UMPP. Hope they encash it. Can you share the details of the offer? The 1/- offer was so tempting - I didnt even bother reading the offer

UMPP were meant to be a promise to the nation to meet our acute energy needs. Some like Tata's bleed in fulfilling this promise and others simply ran away!!!!!!!

Competencies ensure one doesnt end up in a soup in the first place and ofcourse competencies are also on display if someone can pull out of a bad situation - does Mr Ajay Singh ring a bell? If not Spice Jet - from forced groundiing to world's top airline stock in 2 years. That competence on display pulling back from disaster.... but hey it wasn't Mr Ajay Singh would lead to the disaster in the first instance.

Btw - I am hearing of frequent power cuts now even in the western suburbs of Mumbai. Its just so unimagineable..... parts of Mumbai without electricity. It was unheard of all this while. Would you know if this that true? Would you know who supplies electricity there.

 

How to back out of a unprofitable business and not to sink money is also an art .More over one rupee offer is to Gujrat Govt entity as you can not take liablity .More over when all Gas based power plant are bleeding;Anil Ambani has done agreement with Bangla desh to establish gas based power plant Anil Ambani Power plant machinary of Samalkot is being shifted and will be part of investment as equity .What a smart move to recover money without making one rupee offer to any one.

 

Well backing out of an unprofitable business is the easiest thing to do.... Just let it sink or go to dogs or abort midway or selling it. In our country we all know of many who have adopted this approach with no accountability or fear of law

Using idle assets procured for one project into another similar project - well if this your definition of smartness or originality.... Then you have pathetic levels set to assess competence. Even the uneducated know to adopt this strategy.

Unfortunately many questions I have asked remain unanswered.

 

The wizard now seeks to return Rs340crs worth of spectrum.

Looks like sitting on or rather ending up (through misadventures) a pile of idle assets seems to his area of expertise.

Was acquiring this business acumen / smartness?

Is offloading this desparation?

Icing on the cake is seeking refund of amounts already paid. Jab tak bada bhai hai Sambhal karne ke liye, govt will agree to this audacious request too.

We certainly need more business leader of this mould.!!!!

 

This discussion has started in the context of Rep Cap.Sir,May I know --what do you foresee the future of Rel Cap or your big picture view ?

 

Well it wasn't me who detoured to some power companies. But since the detour was taken... Why not just go into Telecom.

Afterall we are discussing the business acumen of one gent

 

If you forgive my impertetinence,Sir this discussion will lead to no conclusion. Instead, I would request for your insight on prospects of Indian pharma sector from investment perspective. I know you can give a lot on this topic born of your long experience in investment field.

 

@shakti khanduri It would matter if there was an intention to this effect. BTW doesnt the monotonous verbal diarrhea (same posts in multiple threads, repeating what has already been said before) unleashed often get to you?

3-4 years is all that I have been investing for and you call this long experience in investment field? Surely you have lots more experience than me

Pharma - difficult space at the moment but a sector which will exist always. I would prefer going in for (i) the bigger pharma companies which can see through this difficult times, have the scale and the competencies in R&D and (ii) contract research companies

 

Not very convincing statement from one whose arguments are otherwise irrefutable !

 

Well I ain't in the business of convincing people either about stocks or myself.

 

I never knew that any pvt airline business needs any comptence after crash in fuel price going down to 45 USD from above 125 USD ,which also resulting even Warren Buffet ends up buing airlines stock.Forget about losing money in airlines at USD 45 ,one has to be fool of fourth degree to lose money at this level in airline business or you have to be govt organization.Even if you recalculate profit loss of King Fisher Airlines assuming fuel at US D 45 in place of 125 ,it would have been blue chip by now if fuel was at USD 45 at that time.If I am not wrong the same person you are praising ,run away from spice jet when fuel was at 125 USD .Competent persons don't run away from difficult business situation .

 

You know what..... and with due respect (i believe that you are a senior to me by age) there are many many things that you dont know and I hate to keep bringing this out in the open

Ajay Singh moved out after Spice Jet was taken over by Sun Group - scam tainted and with questionable business ethics and credentials. Quite common corporate happening - old senior management moved out by ones representing the new owner. You should know this for you work for a Corporate right or this is also something not known to you? AND he returned to take over the reins from these same fellows. Maybe for you this is running away.

You are right there is no competence required to run an airline company when Oil is at $45. You need to quickly write to both Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines that they dont need to undertake any business stategy reviews they are planning because oil is at $45. Hopefully you know that Cathay Pacific recently said it was cutting 600 jobs, its biggest headcount reduction in almost two decades, as it seeks to return to profitability in an industry battered by falling ticket prices or that Singapore Airlines also reported a loss recently as it along with Cathay has had to contend with increasing competition despite oil being where it is.

You are right, oil is the only risk which airlines face. Loss of business reputation , customer dissatisfaction , on time performance , competition from other airlines, asset acquisition, lease negotiations, putting in place the financing arrangement, expansion plans, routes rationalisation, costs management etc etc are of no consequence at all. Indeed no competency / business understanding/expertise is required to manage these aspects of an airline business - given that oil is at $45.

So with this profound announcement of yours that no competencies are required to run an airline business at $45, please educate us all at what levels(oil price) competencies are required if at all any are required....

Btw, Spice was started/co-founded by Ajay in 2005 by reviving* Royal Airways and then 10 years later he again revived it through a series of actions including infusing capital (at a time when it was being predicted that Spice was going the Kingfisher way) unlike a Anil who seeks to withdraw and seeks refunds, cutting costs, reducing aircraft lease rentals by 15%, doubling airline route network, increasing ancillary revenue from 6% to 16%, improving on time performance by over 50% of earlier levels etc

* to revive means - to bring back to life, to give new health

Like you said competent people do not run away from difficult situations - business or otherwise!!

 

For your information Singapore Airlines shows profit of 259 million USD last financal year 2016- 2017.So Dont be misguided by Last quarter poor results which shows absence of previous year write back and other provisions ,adjustment not related to last quarter working.So Singapore Airlines remains profitable .Cathay Pecifc lost as it could not gain due to lower crude prices as it has hedged fuel for long term when fuel was running high.So it is not a operating loss,but a trading loss due to hedging going wrong,although it has earned good profit for many years due to hedging in past when oil price were high.So both airlinrs are operationally profitable at fuel price below 45 USD.So one has to do every thing possible wrong ,that too be of higher level to post loss in airlines business at fuel price below 45 USD.Airlines business is indirect reverse bet on oil prices and nothing more.To understand that you need to plot a graph of major airlines profit/loss across world and their inverse co relation with crude prices.This is my last post on this subject as we need to end this on going discussion at some stage.

 

Rel Cap
made fresh 52 week high well two month early than my expectations.This is among my high conviction mid Cap NBFC and is grossly underpriced stock in over heated market .Good answer from ADAG group to critics.Comments from people with opposite view are welcome.

 

@ Mr kharb ,Which are your other high conviction still undervalued picks where you expect value unlocking in near future?

 

L&T Finance rocking when the markets are down. Good turnaround story and it reflected in the results. accumulate this gem. L&T Finance Mutual fund will be coming in the IPO soon.

 

But by now it is well recognised Price appriciation will follow mainely the earning growth.

 

Journey is started now and I am a long time holder in this company. It was moving in snail's pace for the last 3 to 4 years. Turnaround buzz happened only in the last 2 to 3 quarters. Still a buy.