My portfolio (beginner, please review)

Portfolio update.
My core holdings are
ATFL
KCP ltd.
Repro India
Rain industries

I'm slowly accumulating Smartlink network systems as execution plays out.
I hold exide industries.
NESCO I will be slowly adding over the period of one year as execution plays out and we know the impact of the new competition.
I have closely tracking Centrum capital and will take up a small position in them keeping an eye on execution over the next 3 quarters. Stock will fall now just like sintex.
I will be adding two-three more scrips and then portfolio stay the same for next 3-5 years hopefully.
I'm also looking at arihant superstructures.
Betting on Centrum management is the rationale for the investment, no fancy valuation metrics etc:

 

Hi 7 Cr
I could not add Repro to my holdings due to lack of funds. Now that I have some liquidity, do you find Repro still a buy considering it has moved quite a bit. Or Centrum/ Arihant/ ATFL.

 

No. Centrum and Repro have gone up super fast. It could be both smart money and dumb money. I would wait for a correction before adding either Repro or centrum. Always remember there are plenty of opportunities in the market so don't worry if you miss Repro or centrum. I myself don't have a holding in Centrum. It ran up too fast. This a mega bull run and it is being lead by hfc, nbfc and finance in general. So wait for while to add Repro and Centrum. You can always pay a little more provided the fundamentals have indeed improved. In which case you are actually getting value for what you are paying. I have no holding in Arihant, Ive been mulling over the idea, I don't know if I will buy them. ATFL is still very cheap, but it is a stock with almost no downside in my eyes. Although execution has not played out over last two years. So a lot of patience is needed. Strong mgmt., brands, large opportunity, ConAgra, very limited downside makes them a good buy for a value investor. I really don't know when the story will play out, but due to the above reasons I hold them. If have any more questions please contact me via email. pransach@outlook.com

 

Portfolio update.
I have begun buying Mayur uniquoters, GAEL and Capacite Infra. TBZ is now in my satellite along with Rain Industries.
Mayur uniquoters 5%- Trading at a discount. GST beneficiary. Mercedes conversion. Plant expansion in FY19. Everybody knows the quality of their product and the margins that they have. Debt free. Mgmt issue has also been/is being sorted. I see a simple 25% CAGR after 3 years with re rating and negligible downside.
GAEL 5%- Everybody thinks this is an agro/edible oil processing commodity business. What people fail to recognise is their Maize processing business. Superb margins, market leaders and quickly taking market share from debt ridden competitors. They have managed to scale the maize business from 0 to 1300cr in a span of around 10 years without raising any debt. All competitors could not sustain without taking huge debt. GAEL is expanding the maize business phase 1 operational by this month and phase 2 in FY19. Without valuing the legacy oil business this maize business should be valued much higher than it is. EBIT margins of some 12%-14% double that of their peers. This clearly shows that it isn't a commodity business as it is able to fund growth without debt. Grown 10 fold since first year of operations. They are fist movers in high fructose starch in India and now going into B2C starch as well. Strong mgmt. ROCE of some 25%.
Capacite infra 5%- Organised RE beneficiary. Siddarth Parekh paragon llp (so Deepak Parekh HDFC) did not exit during the IPO. In fact none of the PE funds exited. We are getting a business poised for growth of 30-40% Yoy for next 3 years. Debt free and zero exposure to govt. projects. EBITDA 12%. Marquee clients like godrej, wadhwa, brigade, prestige etc. They are constructing trump tower by lodha in pune. This is a growth opportunity with order book of 4,500cr giving fantastic visibility. They should do revenues of 1500cr this FY up from 1100cr last FY.
TBZ 2.50%- this is b2c company available at 0.5 sales. Company is being restructured and its a turnaround story. They are finally going for a franchise led expansion which requires zero investment from TBZ. Historically they have don't 1600cr and made around 100cr in profits. Through restructuring, shift to organised in the jewellery sector due to GST and demonetisation, expansion plans we could see sales increase to 2000-2500cr over next 3 years along with margins returning to what they were. You are seeing a b2c business capable of growing and showing profits of 100cr at 850cr mktcap. will add as and when thesis plays out. Risky bet.
Rain 2.50%- Awaiting clarity on debt and US ipo before taking allocation upto to 5% where it will stop for me. Would have made this a core bet I had I entered at 50-80 levels.
Rest of the portfolio is the same KCP, NESCO, Exide, Repro, Orient all at 5%. Sitting on 50% cash waiting for opportunities and corrections. Considering Wonderla as a core bet for next 10 years. Considering Piramal as well. Keeping a close eye on Pokarna the moment it hits 800-900 will begin taking a small position as debt is a concern.
You can always email me at pransach@outlook.com

 

*Portfolio Updates*
8% KCP ltd. Looking to take it to 10%-15% over next 2 quarters post which I might look at taking it to 25% lets see..
GAEL 5% Will take it to 10% as the story plays out
Mayur uniquoters 5% will take it to 10 as story plays out
Capacite infra 5% will take it to 10% as story plays
JKIL 5% will take it to 10% as story plays
Rain industries 2.5% Will hold till 2020 as there are multiple triggers for further growth such as Refinancing of debt at lower rates, fed tax rate cuts and capex in 2019. News about graphite are false as only 5% of Rain's revenues come from graphite products. SP Tulsian is a nutcase..
TBZ 2.5% Really like this story so I have taken satellite position will look to take holding up as execution plays out. Everything looks to be priced in at current levels.
Exide 5% will take it to 10% as story plays. Lovely low risk compounder. Valuations are dirt cheap
Repro India 5% will take it to 10% as story plays out
Orient Refractories 5% High quality low risk proxy to ride the steel industry. Proved to hold margins and growth even during down cycle. Superb balance sheet.
rest is cash as I dont see any hurry to deploy in this type of a market unless I see real value..

Tracking Prima plastics, wonderla holidays, GEPIL, ATFL, edelweiss ... constantly on the look out for new opportunities.. Tracking the capital goods space... Looking at AMC type cos if valuations are right. Looking at consumption stories as well, but all are expensive at these levels, continue to like ATFL a lot but growth has lacked over the last 2 and half years and unless that picks up I cant add them back to my portfolio. You can find my email if you need any help on this thread.