Market crash evaluated

Good read for all of us

Let's have a look at the largest crashes in the past 15 years or so:

1. 2002 - Nifty crashed from 1189 to 922 i.e. 23% or so

2. 2004 - Nifty crashed from 1984 to 1450 i.e. 27% or so

3. 2006 - Nifty crashed from 3750 to 2650 i.e. 29% or so

4. 2008 - Nifty crashed from 6275 to 2600 i.e. 58% or so

5. 2010 - Nifty crashed from 6281 to 4651 i.e. 26% or so

6. 2016 - Nifty crashes from 9100 to 6950 i.e. 26% or so

After every steep fall, there is a steep rise....

1) Between April 2000 to Sept 2001 Sensex Has down by -53% and after recovery it has given 113% return.

2) Between Jan 2004 to May 2004 Sensex was down by -27% and after recovery it has given 37% return.

3) Between May 2006-June 2006 Sensex was down by -29% and after recovery it has given 41% return.

4) Between Jan 2008-March 2009 Sensex was down by -61% and after recovery it has given 156% return.

5) Between Nov 2010-Dec 2011 Sensex was down by -26% and after recovery it has given 36% return.

6) Currently Market is down by 26% and yet to recover...

The magnitude of the current crash is at par with the other 4 major crashes in the past 15 years or so and second only to the 2008 crash

Why to worry so much...

The growth path always has its turns & twists / ups & downs - be it it in life or investments....

So, Enjoy the ride...Don't bother too much about destination...It will be good only

 

Excellent analysis of crash and boom period

 

How much is average gap for crash and recovery? Six months or more than that?

 

Actually the pre Modi point is around 23500 for Sensex we have keep that in mind after Modiji the FII and investing community just pumped in believing turnaround in short time and Sensex made a new high now the turnaround cannot happen in two year time frame now the same FII and investing community blame Modiji and bought Sensex back to the same level. First see who made money in this mayhem the FII were huge buyers around 22000 and they were the net sellers around 29000 now until you break the pre Modi Sensex numbers you cannot create a panic sell in the market now since the pre Modi Sensex number is broken from here on the retail investors will make sure that they sell huge book there losses now the FII will slowly buy since they are now churning the portfolio from large cap to mid cap we will not realise the accumulation and again when sense prevails in the market the FII will disclose there buying and agin the Sensex will be at a reasonable level in the mean time the retail investors must have sold all there holdings and again they will start buying around 27000 and FII will start selling. This is what is really happening now they have somebody to blame for the downfall and easily it will non other the PM. Now the the physiological number is broken and panic selling have given opportunity for the savvy guys to pick and choose now it is buyers market in last 15 yrs I can tell you in all this mayhem FII have made money and retail investors lost because this herd attitude we should understand that clearly and look at good mid caps and small cap with good mangement and growth visiliblitty which were earlier at huge valuations and start investing in SIP mode. never sell in created panic and never buy in created euphoria. It will be difficult for retail investors to hold but if you have bought with some conviction hold it even better add it the market will give as usual a reasonable 14% return whether Modiji or no Modiji it is the company which you have bought is important not the created hype or panic situation for which market will always react. My sincere suggest is not to react but to act with common sense.

 

@ Raaz Sir , Excellent Analysis , Very Rare Information ...it is very very useful sir ...Thank you very much