SENSEX MAY KISS 100000 IN 12 Years, if exit early , may not find courage to buy Quality again.

Market is going down like there is no tomorrow .Market is fairly valued now .So exiting from your fundamentaly good quality stocks may not be good idea now.Naturaly there are many investers around the globe who need money including many sovereign funds of oil and commodity producers countries who needs to sell their stocks to fund fiscal deficit of their countries budget due to melt down of oil and other commodities. If you don't have money but have decent Portfolio of fundamentaly good stocks ,you just do nothing and with time things will certainly change to better.But if you have money keep investing in good stocks or Mutual funds for long term systemetcaly There is no guaranty that market may not temporarily go down further,but in long term you will end up with decent returns. You always wish to time the market but never could,who knows your time of right investment has come.Do it systematically.This looks to be good time for long term investment as stocks are available at beaten down values. More over. I know people may mock such buying ideas,but I definitly know only they will buy from you at higher valuations.I am continuing with my buying in blue chips slowly,as I know this may be my last chance to prepare for good retirement fund.Good luck to those investers who may take benefit of crisis and no complaints to those who may enjoy mocking such advices .Certainly there is ño need to worry from notional paper loss for long term investers . I believe that in long term target of 100000 in next 12 years is not at all difficult.So buying at lower ,the better.

 

Getting very worried. Portfolio is in DEEP LOSS What will happen?

 

The following blog is written by an Advisor. Thought of sharing. Its a bit long but worth reading.

We’ve been repeating the same thing for last 10 years and continue to repeat it in the decades to come. Good advice is boring and doesn’t change with time.

Please note that by equity we mean equity funds or index and NOT direct stocks.

1) The 3 key factors to success in investing are long term orientation, patience and discipline.

2) The minimum holding period for equity investment is 10 years. This is only minimum. The preferred holding period should be in decades.

3) You buy a house, keep it for your whole life and then pass it on to children; equity investments should be viewed in the same way. It is multi-decadal and multi-generational.

4) You don’t look at the value of your house daily, weekly, monthly or even yearly. If you can have the same outlook towards equity as well, you would create huge wealth.

5) There is no short term or medium term. The only term for equity is long term.

6) The biggest blunder people commit is checking the portfolio frequently. You should check it only once a year.

7) People who check their portfolio frequently are unlikely to stay in the market for long and create wealth.

8) Don’t look for one year or 3 year averages. Look only for 10 year averages.

9) The best way to invest is to invest regularly for a long period of time. Time diversification is least understood.

10) Volatility is very normal. Temporary declines are not losses unless you sell due to panic.

11) In markets, declines are temporary and uptrend is permanent. Keep repeating this during corrections and bear markets.

12) Completely ignore macro forecasts and market outlook. No one can predict short term.

13) Once you buy right, all you need to do is sit tight. If you ask me which is the one key trait I’ve learned during last 10 years as an advisor; it is patience. Patience pays and it pays very well.

14) Investor returns are never equal to investment returns because they chase performance. They invest after few good quarters and redeem after few bad quarters. Stay through both good and bad quarters. Then only you would create wealth.

15) Ignore financial media. Lot of it is noise. They amplify your fear during tough times and make you act impulsively. Frequent updates about economy or market are of no use to long term investor. It only has nuisance value.

16) India would go grew well in next couple of decades. So corporate India, hence stock markets, would also do very well. Get the bigger picture correct and ignore every day distractions.

17) I’m confident that equity would beat all the asset classes in the long run. The return would beat inflation and enhance your purchasing power.

18) The biggest risk to a portfolio is not having sufficient exposure to equity.

19) Volatility is not risk. In fact it is a friend for all of you who do SIPs.

20) Individual stocks may require timing in terms of entry and exit. Buy and hold would work extremely well in case of equity funds and index.

21) Actively managed funds have been doing a great job in India. Index investing is still far away.

22) You don’t need great brains to be an investor. Once you invest in few well diversified equity funds, what is needed is patience and discipline to stay the course.

23) Don’t chase performance and keep churning the portfolio. A fund has to be changed only if it under performs benchmark for 3 consecutive years. Changes to the portfolio should be as minimal as possible.

24) Out of 10 years, even a good fund or fund manager would have couple of bad years. Vanguard study shows chasing performers hurts portfolio very seriously. It is a wealth destruction habit.

25) Roughly 2% of investors only hold a fund for 10 years or more. I want all our clients to be in that precious 2%. Only few make it big from the markets and I want all of you to be in that league.

26) Compounding is back loaded. It works well over a long period of time. Give time for your investments to grow and blossom. There is no substitute for time in compounding.

27) Gains always come lumpy. So look for how your portfolio has grown over say a 5 year time frame rather than looking year on year.

28) Time + Discipline = Compounding

29) Wealth Building= Less activity+ Hell a lot of patience

30) 99% of the time, doing nothing is the best thing to do in the market. It is good to be a Rip Van Winkle investor. Activity hurts. Sit still. Let the market work for you

 

Sooper Advice

 

All intermediate corrections are buying opportunties, so always keep 10% cash in portfolio and a buying list of quality stocks.

 

In my view Nifty may not reach 100000 in next 12 years....
very difficult to reach this numbers 25000 - 30000 in next 12 years

dont slip in day dreams ....
Quality stocks certainly give more than that ....
cheep quality stocks will not give benefit if nifty reach sky also

 

Good advice. Always buy only quality stocks. Also spread in various sectors e.g. Pharma JB Chem, Finance CAPF, LT Finance, Auto Fiem, Lumax, TO AVOID SECTOR RISK to portfolio.

 

the thread is about BSE SENSEX and not NSE NIFTY

even if one is to take 25K as the base for SENSEX (which is a ~ 10% discount to today's close of 27673), it's 4x for 100K until 2027 (as @kharb put it) and just ~ 13.43% CAGR (conservative?)
which doesn't seem too far-fetched given the bullishness exhibited not just by the members of the forum but the corporates, experts, markets & government and the amount of money being pumped into the "fastest growing economy in the world" (not my words)

while 100K for NIFTY ......

the sheep have made more money in cheap quality stocks in the current market

if the quality was one factor - many companies wouldn't be listed or traded

now I'm wondering who's daydreaming?

“Hope is a waking dream.”
― Aristotle

"20 years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
– Mark Twain

 

@Srouta Mukherjee ji, I am interested in your stock selection from the auto ancill. sector. Why FIEM specifically?

 

@kharb What are your view for next one year? Will market rise ,or decline or you expect consolidation? What could be contributing factors? I am unable to form stable view keeping in light of Raghuram Rajan's recent opinion.

 

My senses target remain at 100000 in already mentioned time frame, all corrections are buying opportunities for Good Quality Secular Growth stocks and all over priced market are good time to trim some weaker stocks in between .So ride this great Indian Bull Market with Quality Stocks, 100000 Sensex will happen. No recommendation but only for discussion.

 

@kharb

Not to offend you but


The only thing I would like to discuss with regard to this post is

- don't you get tired of repeating yourself
- are such repetitive posts just to stay relevant

 

@kharb

We have repeatedly been subjected to your views of Sensex at 100000.

How about what @shakti khanduri has asked you

 

Can't find where Kharb has repeated himself. He started the thread in Jan 2016 and in Sept 2017 he has reaffirmed his belief. What did you find objectionable?

BTW, what is your forecast?

 

@kharb , have the time to click the like button but skirt the many questions posed by @shakti khanduri , @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA and @wild_hipman ????

Another question - do you have official spokespersons in here?

@Shibi, easy to find repetitions. I am generally not the helpful type so if you don't see this trend in @kharb posts then not much to add by me.

And yes as regards forecasts - it's all BS especially long-term when one doesn't know what the next moment is going to be.

BTW, can you let me know the inherent CAGR in this great belief of Sensex kissing 100,000 in 12 years

 

Ameen !!! But a query crop up in here is How have you decided this figure of 100000 and 12 years. I am sure you must have reached this figure with some strong reasoning. Kindly help us understand.Like wise ,can we work out the figure for after 5 years as presently most of the investors consider 5 years as the long term.Alsow with your permission I would like to suggest that when you mention the name of advisable stock , buying price should also be mentioned , as simply saying buying on the dip is a vague sentence ; specific level should be articulated.

 

An old thread! Congo for all the investors.
I am also bullish on Indian market and confident that Sensex will touch 1 lakh marks in next 10 years. Cheers!

 

@shakti khanduri Hopeful of getting even a single reply are you ?? Luckily your list of pending questions is much smaller than mine. Whilst you wait for replies, how about indulging in 'clicking the like buttons'

Cheers

 

@shakti khanduri

Thank you for clicking the 'like' button - especially to one of my posts. I face a drought like situation where this is concerned

Btw would you be aware of techniques which some imaginative accountants adopt to actually hide debt taken in the company's balance sheet.

This is one question the answer of which I I really need to have.