TARGET 2025 - Which are your favourite bets for next ten years

Everybody have favourite bets for different reasons. what are yours for 2025 ie, 10 years later?
my favourite is vadilal industries
Please share your favourites.

 

What is sitashree foods? Never heard of it. How it can be a 10 year company? Even country club looks like a dabba company. I think 10 year stocks should be top quality names like Century Ply, JB Chem, Ajanta Pharma. Shilpa, Repco, PI Industries. Vadilal is a good pick.

 

@Srouta Mukherjee ok liked your favourite stocks. can you briefly explain why you are bulish on these stocks?

 

Century Ply has 20 year old track record of consistent growth of 20%. It is a great wealth creator. You can see investors presentation where all historical past track record is given. Recently, Motilal Oswal has given buy reco. https://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/foru...earch-report-of-motilal-oswal-45-upside.1208/

All other stocks referred by me have long track record of 15-20% growth over several years. In such companies, management has proved its worth and ability. If in past ten years, such companies have shown performance, in next five and ten years they will do it also. I think there is no scope for experiment or taking risk. You have to see whether there is past performer or not. How we can trust newcomer with money thinking he will learn in future?

 

@Srouta Mukherjee relevant point. thank you.

 

what about others favourites? @Sonia @Abhilash Padival

 

I agree. If you are looking to invest for such a long time (buy 'n forget) you need very strong companies which can overcome adversities and still survive. (I would only look at established companies like HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Amara Raja Batteries, PI Industries, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki etc.

 

thank you sir @Carl Icahn . i think that is a good advice for a common man investor like me.

 

I still believe Pharma is the wealth generator. I feel following scrips can be bought and forget for next decade :

1. Large cap : Sun Pharma
2. Mid cap : Granules India
3. Small cap : Mangalam Drugs

 

great picks @SyedK thank you

 

Sir, can you please mention the essentials to be considered for slecting the real long term, in Phil Fisher's view., investment.?

 

A few decades ago, it was said that if you have Tata or Birla shares you don't have to worry about your "after retirement". Having Tata or Birla shares was considered very prestigious at that time. Offcourse liquidity in these shares was very less as the promoter group holding was very high. So few people (retail investors) could get these shares. At this moment, are there any such shares, we can boast of ? Those who have been holding Wipro for last sixty years have made lot of money (dividends/ bonus etc.) But can we hold wipro (buy and forget) for at least next thirty years.

 

Good point. Yesterday fav and not favs today. So also todays favs may not be favs tomorrow.

 

One should try to identify upcoming small companies for growth and not already grown companies .

 

Good suggestions . Kindly specify the names meeting those requirements.It is better.if names are not familiar

 

Do you have any such small not so familiar ideas to share @good stocks . I think sita shree food is such a stock. Do your analysis. @shakti khanduri

 

I have already put them on seperate threads

 

Will add the following to the list -

ITC, Hero Moto, Gillette

 

I haven't identified them yet, but here's my thought process around the framework:

a. Mcap: My first filter will be Mcap (It better be a Micro Cap or a small cap - between 100 Cr to 1500 Cr). All 100-500 Cr companies better be in a position to transition as MidCaps with 15-20K of Mcap over the next 10-15 years and all Small caps i.e. between 500 -1500 Cr better be the next Large caps of 50K+ Mcaps (Note: The I have used my definition of Small and Micro Caps here)

b. Profit Pools: There was a MOSL story sometime back on Profit pool generators i.e. Percentage share of profit of each industry as compared to the overall profit pool of corporate India. There were two industries that came up as large wealth creators: Financials (accounted for more than 30% of the overall profit pool for corporate India), Pharma and IT. So your portfolios need to consist of stock from this sector. In this regard I loved @SyedK s Idea of Mangalam drugs. In financials - You can structure the industry into: PSU Banks, Large Private Banks, Small Private Banks, HFC's and NBFC's. I personally feel I missed the bus in picking up NBFC's (Bajaj Finserv's of the world). I would bet on HFC's (Ashiana) and Small Private Sector Banks (DCB and Karnataka Bank). I am not sure about IT. We would need to bet on companies leveraging the transition in this industry (i.e. cloud, digital marketing, Ad networks etc). You dont have too much choice in the listed space - The sector now has huge competitive pressure. The dynamics is no longer about cost and it is about technology (Cloud, Digital Marketing etc). I am not sure of we can be competitive against Russian, Isreli, Eartern Erupean startup's in these spaces.

c. Theme Based Stock Selection: My third filter would be similar to second filter (They can be mutually exclusive). I am a huge believer in the housing story and would love to research companies associated with this sector (Finance: Ashiana, GIC Housing, GRUH Housing; Real Estate: Nitesh (MicroCap), Building Materials: Century Ply, a descent paint company (not sure if we have a small cap here)
Other themes: Turnaround (Infra, Metals - remember the SAIL story!, Auto ancillary), Consumption related (Logistics due to ecom etc), commodity (Rubber, Copper - Or some other metals / agri produce companies that are quoting at decade level lows)

d. Management: Initially I never accorded any importance to this. But increasingly i have realized its all about management. The turnaround Indus Ind was orchestrated by Mr. Sobti, I will sell all my holding of DCB the day Mr. Natarajan retires, I am only banking on Century Ply because of the current promoters, they seem to have a very good vision of how the Building Materials market will pan out in India etc. I also believe this is the most difficult part of the process i.e. evaluating if the management of Ashiana are the Future Narayn Murthy's or Premji's of the world.

One thing though that has worked well in evaluating the management is: Their consistency in predicting certain corporate events, financial metric projections etc. If they are reasonably consistent in their views, have met most of their promises, don't have surprises to their clients and have sufficient disclosure I would defintely bet on them (it at least shows the intent of the management: Look at disclosures from DCB They are detailed and really answer your most important query!)

 

Fundamentals are not very encouraging. Business model is also commodity type.